December 25, 2010

Holiday Football Returns

The Week 16 Picks:

Last Week: 7-9              This Week: 1-0              Season: 105-113-7

Dallas (-7) at Arizona

Any chance to get away from the family this Christmas went away when the words "Dallas at Arizona" appeared on the NFL schedule as the lone Christmas Day game. Only a degenerate gambler would watch a game like this during the holiday. Oh wait...

New York (+2.5) at Chicago

I really think the Jets will go down to Chicago and put their best foot forward to clinch a playoff berth. I have no confidence that Jay Cutler will be able to go toe-to-toe with the Jets defense, especially Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis.

Baltimore (-4) at Cleveland

After Art Modell moved the Browns franchise to Baltimore in 1996 in the middle of the night, Cleveland fans/players have been salivating at the chance to get even for 14 years. This could be the perfect opportunity. (Remembering current Browns players were young and living in cities other than Cleveland at the time of relocation). Wait a minute, this won't affect the game at all!

Washington (+7) at Jacksonville

Rex Grossman is starting for the Redskins in Week 16. If you didn't watch a single NFL game all season long and just read that one sentence, it's safe to say you'd think Washington is in deep trouble. And that might even be an understatement. But seven points is a little too much to cover for Jacksonville in the proverbial "let-down game."

San Francisco at St. Louis (-2.5)


San Francisco has had so many ups-and-downs during this season that it feels like they've played 30 games already. No really, it does. St. Louis should win this game at home and move one step closer to clinching the NFC West title. Or, as I like to call it, moving one step closer to giving the #5 seed a first-round bye.

New England at Buffalo (+9)


Buffalo is on a two-game winning streak? They played competitively at Baltimore and at home against Pittsburgh? With Ryan Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson, the backdoor cover is always in play? (Desperately searching for reasons to support this pick).

Tennessee (+5) at Kansas City

I think it's safe to say that a Cincinnati team that may have quit in Week 4 won't defeat the Chargers. So a lot of pressure here for the Chiefs at home against the Titans. And I'll just close my eyes, and pretend I didn't just pick Kerry Collins in a hostile environment.

San Diego (-8.5) at Cincinnati

What Marvin Lewis should be telling his offensive coordinator: "For the love of God, can you just call effing running plays!?!?" The over/under on interceptions returned for touchdowns in this game is 1.5, and that might even be a little bit too low. And by the way, I never thought I'd be writing this five years ago.

Detroit at Miami (-3)


Three weeks ago, this spread would have been Miami by six or seven. But then we learned how awful Chad Henne is and saw the Dolphins blow a perfect opportunity to stay in the playoff hunt last week vs the Bills. Still, I'll take the Dolphins in what basically amounts to a pick-em' game, but I plan on not watching a single play from this game all afternoon. Not a one.

Indianapolis (-3) at Oakland

Last week, I picked the Raiders by seven in a pick that was more against Denver and their historically dysfunctional 2010 season than it was for Oakland. Am I ready to take the Raiders and only three in a game that the Colts need to stay atop the AFC South? As Mr. McMahon once told Stone Cold Steve Austin, "No chance in hell!"

Seattle at Tampa Bay (-6)


The Steve Smith battle that took center stage at the beginning of the season now gives way to the Mike Williams battle in Week 16. Credit to (Seattle) Mike Williams for resurrecting his career and, more importantly, winning a couple of fantasy weeks for me in the process. But the combination of a Charlie Whitehurst appearance (who is somehow 10000000000000 times worse than Matt Hasselbeck) and the chance that this game could be meaningless if St. Louis wins means I think I'll go with the Bucs.

Houston (-3) at Denver

Two teams with awful defenses, that are going nowhere fast as the season comes to a close, with coaches who are probably not coming back next season means this game is a fantasy owner's dream! And this might be the only time I can type, "Tim Tebow is a viable starting option at quarterback this week."

New York (+3) at Green Bay

The Rex Ryan story has amazingly moved Matt Dodge's foot to No.2 in New York this week. Which is a good thing, because the Giants defense should have taken much more of the blame for Sunday's Meltdown at the Meadowlands. But I don't think 7:30 p.m. on Sunday is the proper time to eulogize the 2010 Giants season.

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-14)


Same situation as last week with a backup quarterback going against a team looking to get in position for a first-round bye. The only difference is that unlike Green Bay, Minnesota is a complete mess. That, and the fact that Joe Webb is starting at quarterback for the Vikings.

New Orleans at Atlanta (-2.5)


Never pick against Matt Ryan at home. Never pick against Matt Ryan at home. Never pick against Matt Ryan at home. Never pick against Matt Ryan at home.

Enjoy the games!

tylertomea@gmail.com




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December 24, 2010

12/23/10 Podcast- Joe Russo and I talk Meltdown at the Meadowlands (First 10 Minutes) and then Preview Week 16 in the NFL

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December 19, 2010 NFL Week 15: The Playoff Push

The Week 15 Picks:
Last Week: 8-8            This Week: 1-0            Season: 97-104-7
Kansas City at St. Louis (-3)
In these situations, I usually like to take the team whose quarterback hasn't had his appendix removed within the last two weeks. And anyway, one team from the NFC West has to be on its way to 8-8 and a division title, right? Right?
Houston (+1) at Tennessee
Under normal circumstances, this would be a game where a fully healthy Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson torch Houston's porous defense at home. But then you have this, and realize this is a Titans team in disarray that may or may not have quit on its coach. Interesting subplot/Only reason I'm  interested in this game: Johnson-Finnegan II.
Jacksonville (+4.5) at Indianapolis
There is no way Indianapolis has its season ended, at home, in Week 15. Peyton Manning will be able to feast all day on Jacksonville's 28th-ranked pass defense. Can anyone really see David Garrard and Jack Del Rio clinching a playoff spot in a big-time road game? This spread should definitely be Indy by 10, at least. (Rule of thumb: When not totally confident with a pick, always go with the reverse jinx!).
Arizona (+2.5) at Carolina
Jimmy Clausen's play over the next three weeks could go a long way in determining his future. If he leads Carolina to a couple of wins, the Panthers will lose the No.1 pick and the chance to draft Andrew Luck, meaning Clausen will have another season at the helm to turn things around. But the Panthers have come this far- seven straight losses- that a win here could actually enrage the fanbase.
Cleveland (pick) at Cincinnati
Had this game happened a week earlier, we would have had a showdown between Jake Delhomme and Carson Palmer. The over/under on interceptions returned for touchdowns in that contest would be 3.5, and I'd seriously consider the over. McCoy gives the Browns the edge here in a game I'm not even sure the state of Ohio cares about.
Buffalo (+5) at Miami
Miami looked awful last week and Chad Henne may be sneakily approaching "one of the five worst quarterbacks in the league" territory, but the Dolphins schedule shapes up very nicely for a playoff run. They have Buffalo and Detroit at home, followed by a New England team who will be resting its starters in Week 17. Miami should win here, but it's tough to be giving more than three with a team that is so incapable of scoring.
Washington at Dallas (-7)
A post by Chris Chase on the Shutdown Corner blog on Friday had the following title: "McNabb benched for Grossman, Redskins players furious." Yep, I think I'll take Dallas in this one. As the famous line in Jerry Maguire states, "You had me at hello McNabb benched for Grossman." Or something like that.
Philadelphia (+3) at New York
Two lasting images I have in my head from Eagles-Giants the last two seasons: 1.) Eli refusing to slide, awkwardly falling to the ground and fumbling- twice! 2.) DeSean Jackson repeatedly getting behind the Giants secondary in a game last year on Sunday Night. The Eagles have won five straight in the series, so it's tough not to take them when their getting a field goal here.
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-4)
This spread opened up at six earlier in the week, and now has dropped to four as of Sunday morning. Are we forgetting that the Lions have lost 26 consecutive games on the road? Do we know that Detroit hasn't won two in a row since 2007? Do we remember that Raheem Morris once called his team the best in the NFC? Why am I asking so many questions?!?! All season long, Tampa Bay has beaten every average (and below-average) team on its schedule, and here's another chance for a win.
New York (+5) at Pittsburgh
No Troy Polamalu (and to a much, much lesser extent) no Heath Miller, means this is a great chance for the Jets to spring an upset in Pittsburgh against a Steelers offense that has been struggling. The road will be a bit tougher though with the suspension of top tackler Sal Alosi, who also doubled as the team's strength and conditioning coach.
Atlanta (-6) at Seattle
The Seahawks season progression: Week 6: After a road win at Chicago, maybe this team has finally turned the corner as they enter the bye week at 4-2. Week 10: At 5-4 and atop the NFC West, this is the team that wins games at home and can beat horrible teams on the road. Week 15: Seattle has lost its last five games by 30, 34, 15, 18 and 19; they're awful. I'd like to present to you your 2010 NFC West co-leaders!
Denver at Oakland (-7)
I can now officially check "Taking Oakland when their favored by a touchdown or more" off my list of "Things I never thought I'd do in the next 10 years." But going against a team that just lost by 30 to Arizona and is starting a quarterback whose best qualities are his intangibles and winning attitude, I think now is the time to roll with the Raiders.
New Orleans (+2) at Baltimore
I'm putting this game with the other 4 o'clock starts, because it doesn't have the feel of a 1 p.m. kickoff. Anyway, after their amazing cover last week, it's tough to go against Baltimore this Sunday for sentimental reasons. But if there has ever been an under-the-radar red hot 10-3 team, it's the 2010 New Orleans Saints.
Green Bay at New England (-14)
The "Matt Flynn Effect" has moved this line from Patriots by six (Rodgers playing) to Patriots by two touchdowns. And after seeing Flynn attempt to play quarterback at Detroit, I think the spread could have been bumped another 10 points and I'd still consider New England.
Chicago (-6) at Minnesota
Anytime you have a chance to pick against a team who no-showed its last game and is starting a quarterback who is also listed as a wide receiver in fantasy football, you don't ask questions and just go ahead and do it.
Enjoy the games!
tylertomea@gmail.com
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December 12, 2010 NFL Week 14: Home for the Holidays

The Week 14 Picks:
Last Week: 6-10            This Week: 0-1            Season: 88-98-7
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-8.5)
When Haloti Ngata whacked Ben Roethlisberger and broke his nose early in last Sunday's game, I thought one thing: After he was accused of sexual assault twice, this is a huge victory for the women! Meanwhile, how did Cincinnati jump offsides on 4th down against New Orleans last week? (Remembering it's the Bengals, and wondering why I'd expect anything different).
Oakland (+4) at Jacksonville
Oakland is undefeated in the AFC West. With a win this week, and then at Indianapolis next week, Jacksonville will lock up its first AFC South title in franchise history. Yes, I'm just as surprised as you are that those two sentences are true.
Cleveland (pick) at Buffalo
The words, "Jake Delhomme will start Sunday," should be enough to scare me away from picking Cleveland in any situation. But the Browns have won four of six, and all Delhomme needs to do is hand the ball off to Peyton Hillis. He can't screw that up, can he?
Green Bay (-7) at Detroit
Detroit has held the following leads in recent weeks: 20-14 vs Chicago (3rd quarter), 24-17 vs New England (3rd quarter), 12-7 at Dallas (3rd quarter) and 20-10 vs the Jets (3rd quarter). This means two things: 1.) The Lions have serious trouble closing out games. 2.) Betting against Detroit at halftime has to be the most profitable bet in gambling history.
Atlanta (-7.5) at Carolina
Really nice job by Atlanta last week coming back from a 24-14 deficit to defeat the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan usually struggles outdoors, but he's playing against Carolina, who may not qualify as an NFL team. And after last week, when the Panthers blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 31-14 in Seattle, it might be in their best interest to continue losing and secure the No.1 pick.
Tampa Bay (-1.5) at Washington
If someone wanted to know what tanking a game means, I think you can use last week's Redskins-Giants game as Exhibit A. Washington was down 21-0 at halftime, and didn't score its first points until 4:35 remained in the third quarter. Tampa Bay's season probably ended last week, but they've proved all season they can win these games.
Seattle (+5) at San Francisco
A team tied atop its division going on the road against a 4-8 team and being a five-point underdog? Only in the NFC West! This point spread means San Francisco is two points better than Seattle, and 12 games into the season, that's hard to believe.
Denver (-4) at Arizona
It's entirely possible that Josh McDaniels may have done five to 10 years worth of damage to the Denver franchise in less than two full seasons as head coach. But this NFL season has taught us two things: 1.) Anytime a franchise fires its head coach, you have to pick that team the following week. 2.) Anytime you have the chance to pick against someone named John Skelton, you just have to do it.
Kansas City at San Diego (-9.5)
Kansas City's starting quarterback underwent an emergency appendectomy Wednesday morning. The backup has started nine games in his NFL career, and lost all of them. In situations like these, I tend to take the team fighting for its playoff life after being embarrassed at home last week.
Miami (+5.5) at New York
It was Chad Henne (and not Jake Delhomme) who threw an interception late in last week's game that gave Cleveland the win and eliminated any playoff hopes Miami had. But the Dolphins thrive in an underdog role, fight hard for Tony Sparano and usually play New York tough, so I'm confident here. By the way, the playoffs don't start for another four weeks, but a very bad scenario is imminent for either Baltimore or the Jets. On the road. Against Peyton Manning. In Round 1.
New England (-3) at Chicago
I was up 20+ points in a win-and-I'm-in fantasy matchup heading into Monday's Patriots-Jets game this past week. And then I got Tom Brady'd. I don't know if I'll ever recover from that loss. So if there is such a thing as justice, Brady will repay me by covering a three-point spread against Chicago.
St. Louis (+9) at New Orleans
Danny Amendola. Brandon Gibson. Daniel Fells. This is who Sam Bradford has been throwing to all season. You can't say enough about how well the rookie has played, and I think they do enough to keep it close against the defending Super Bowl champions, who have won five straight. And as Thursday night taught us, as long as you're trailing by less than a touchdown (with the spread), it's not over until no time is remaining.
Philadelphia at Dallas (+4)
Dallas has been playing its broken clavicles off since Jason Garrett has taken over, going 3-1 in its past four games. The only loss in that stretch was the three-point defeat at the hands of New Orleans on Thanksgiving, so they should stay close with Philly. (Absolutely terrified of Mike Vick and the Eagles repeatedly burning the Cowboys' secondary deep).
Baltimore (-3) at Houston
Houston is one of the teams that looked promising at the start of the season, but has turned into a mess as the season has gone on and we (should be) approaching the end of the Gary Kubiak Era. And if you're not Rusty Smith, you should have your way with a pass defense that is historically bad. So yeah, I think Joe Flacco will be fine here.
New York (-3) at Minnesota
Mother Nature strikes again, and Father Time will now have another day to see if he can make the start for the Vikings. This is one of the toughest games to call, and it will tell us a lot about the Giants. If you're a playoff team, and you have the Eagles and Packers left on the schedule, you go into Minnesota and win this game. Simple as that.
Enjoy the games!
tylertomea@gmail.com
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December 5, 2010 NFL Week 13: The End Is Near

The Week 13 Picks:
Last Week: 10-6        This Week: 1-0        Season: 83-87-7
Cleveland at Miami (-4.5)
First, Cleveland fans were forced to watch LeBron go into Quicken Loans Arena and put up the following stat line, all with a smirk on his face: 38 points, five rebounds and eight assists. Now, those same fans are forced to watch Jake Delhomme play quarterback. I'm not sure which is worse.
Chicago (-5) at Detroit
Absolutely everything about this contest screams Trap Game! But then you realize that Drew Stanton is at the helm for Detroit. And that anytime you can pick against a Drew Stanton-led team and give up less than a touchdown, you take the gift from the gambling gods and don't ask questions. Don't let me down, Jay Cutler.
New Orleans (-7) at Cincinnati
When did Carson Palmer become this badHow amazing would it have been if Cincy claimed Randy Moss off waivers? Why is Marvin Lewis still employed? These are questions we need answers to!
Denver at Kansas City (-8.5)
I only care about three things in this game: 1.) Knowshown Moreno's fantasy football production. 2.) The postgame handshake between Josh McDaniels and Todd Haley. (Desperately trying to think of a third reason.)
San Francisco at Green Bay (-9.5)
Frank Gore's injury now means opposing defenses have officially zero players to fear when they play San Francisco. Add in the fact that this is a West Coast team, traveling to Green Bay, in December, for a 1 p.m. kickoff with a spread that is somehow below 10? Sign me up!
Buffalo (+5.5) at Minnesota
How many fantasy football games were decided on Steve Johnson's drop in overtime last week against Pittsburgh? And how many will be decided this week when Adrian Peterson sees if he can go or not?
Jacksonville (+3) at Tennessee
The proverbial "you couldn't pay me to watch this" game (at the 1 p.m. time slot, at least). I know Jacksonville is leading the division, but does anyone really expect them to finish ahead of Indy? And in times like these, I'll take a healthy David Garrard over an injured Kerry Collins. I think.
Washington (+7.5) at New York
I have spent my junior high and high school years watching Donovan McNabb beat New York. And giving up more than a touchdown against a divisional rival fighting to keep its season alive seems like too much, especially for a team not playing that well right now.
St. Louis (-3.5) at Arizona
Derek Anderson puts his heart and soul into the game. Unfortunately, he puts his right arm into it as well. Zing! And a win here will keep the 5-6 Rams atop the NFC West. No really, a 5-6 team is leading a division.
Dallas at Indianapolis (-5.5)
Besides Peyton Manning, I'm not sure Indianapolis has any healthy players. But a Manning-led team can't let his team lose three consecutive games, and two straight at home. (At least that's what I keep telling myself).
Carolina (+5) at Seattle
After tracking the 4 p.m. games all season long from my spot behind The Eagle's sports desk, I have seen my share of horrible games. And this one ranks right up there with them, believe me.
Oakland at San Diego (-13)
Two teams going in completely opposite directions. Remember when Oakland was 5-4 and actually resembled a football team? Yeah, well now they're 13-point underdogs in a divisional game.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+3)
This just has the feel of a game Atlanta will lose. Coming off a huge 20-17 home win over Green Bay, the Falcons have to have some sort of a letdown. Meanwhile, to this point, Tampa Bay's only impressive win has been at home against St. Louis. So if they are a legitimate contender, they win this game.
Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore
New York at New England (-3.5)
I'm putting these two games together because I can not remember a weekend where I have been anticipating a Sunday Night-Monday Night combo for weeks in advance. Divisional rivals, teams with great records (PIT@BAL: Each 8-3, NYJ@NE: Each 9-2); these will be great, great games. Roethlisberger's injury will be of little concern and I think he comes in with a little extra motivation knowing he missed the first game between these two teams. As for Monday, it's tough to go against Belichick when he has 10 days to prepare. And because Tom Brady rarely makes mistakes, I don't trust Mark Sanchez enough to move the ball on long fields Monday.
As always, enjoy the games!
tylertomea@gmail.com
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November 28, 2010 NFL Week 12: Preparing for the Stretch Run

The Week 12 Picks:
Last Week: 10-6          This Week: 2-1          Season: 74-82-7
Minnesota (+2) at Washington
The proverbial "good team remembers they're good after the head coach gets fired" game. If that's not a proverb, we should make it one. And did we already forget Washington lost 59-28 on Monday just two weeks ago?
Pittsburgh (-7) at Buffalo
Remember last week when people picked Oakland to go into Pittsburgh and defeat the Steelers? No really, that actually happened. In Cincinnati last Sunday, Buffalo scored 35 straight points to comeback and beat the Bengals 49-31. But I'm not sure Cincy actually qualifies as an NFL team.
Tennessee (+6) at Houston
I'm picking a sixth-round pick from Florida Atlantic on the road in his first career start at quarterback. His name is Rusty Smith. I think that answers how historically bad this Houston pass defense is.
Jacksonville (+7.5) at New York
Jacksonville has lured me into taking them. They have won three straight, and are getting more than a touchdown against a team who hasn't played well in three weeks. I feel like I'm getting trapped as I'm typing.
Carolina (+8.5) at Cleveland
A Jake Delhomme-led Cleveland Browns team is favored by 8.5 points against an NFL team. Let that last sentence sink in for a little bit. And while Carolina's offense is horrible, Delhomme may be able to provide them with one or two interceptions returned for touchdowns.
Green Bay at Atlanta (-1.5)
Never go against Matt Ryan at home. Never go against Matt Ryan at home. Never go against Matt Ryan at home. Never go against Matt Ryan at home.
Miami (+3) at Oakland
Chad Henne is starting, which means Miami will have some semblance of a professional quarterback this Sunday. Miami should stay competitive, but this is more a pick against the Raiders. I can never endorse taking Oakland as a favorite of three or more.
Kansas City at Seattle (+2)
Seattle is 5-5, has been outscored 126-65 in the last four weeks and is -48 in point differential for the season. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 NFC West leader! The Seahawks are at home, and that's really the only reason I'm picking them.
Tampa Bay (+8) at Baltimore
Tampa Bay has only played one good team since Week 6 (a 27-21 Week 9 loss at Atlanta), which makes it easy to forget they got annihilated by Pittsburgh (38-13) and New Orleans (31-6) at home. But Raheem Morris and Co. have screwed me over too many times in these last few weeks, so I'm just going to take the points and hope for the best.
Philadelphia (-3.5) at Chicago
Last week, I picked a Miami team starting a third-string quarterback over the Bears on Thursday night. It was more of a pick against Jay Cutler than it was for the Dolphins. The Chicago defense stepped up, but Mike Vick is a little different than Tyler Thigpen. And I still have zero confidence in Cutler.
St. Louis (+3.5) at Denver
Kyle Orton has thrown for over 3,000 yards already, Knowshown Moreno is a solid running back when healthy and Brandon Lloyd has more than 1,000 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. With so many useful fantasy players, it's easy to forget that Denver is not a good reality team. St. Louis for the cover.
San Diego at Indianapolis (-2)
Never go against Peyton Manning at night. Never go against Peyton Manning at night. Never go against Peyton Manning at night. Never go against Peyton Manning at night.
San Francisco (-1) at Arizona
A battle between the two worst teams in the NFL's worst division. On Monday Night Football. Monday Night Raw is a possibility here.
As always, enjoy the games!
tylertomea@gmail.com
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November 20, 2010 NFL Week 11: The Return of the 16-Game Slate

The Week 11 picks:
Last Week: 5-9               This Week: 0-1          Season: 62-76-7
Buffalo (+5.5) at Cincinnati
Last week, Cincinnati scored a touchdown with less than three minutes left to lose the game, but cover the point spread. Wait a minute, that never happens! Anyway, my one goal this Sunday is to not watch a single play from this game. Not a one.
Baltimore (-11) at Carolina
Brian St. Pierre is starting for Carolina this weekend. And yes, I'm just as surprised as you are that the last sentence is true. I think Baltimore can pretty much name a score this Sunday.
Oakland at Pittsburgh (-7)
Mark Schlereth and Tedy Bruschi of ESPN's NFL Live both picked Oakland to win this Sunday's game at Pittsburgh. I didn't think I'd type that sentence for at least another 10 years. Pittsburgh should bounce back from an awful game, in the same way New England did last week.
Houston (+7) at New York
One pass interference call, Matthew Stafford injury and Chansi Stuckey fumble later and the Jets are 7-2 and atop the AFC. While some could say the Jets could be 5-4 or 4-5, I think you have to give them credit for winning games, because at the end of the season, that's all that matters. I think Houston's offense is decent enough to cover here.
Arizona (+8) at Kansas City
I'm glad to see Arizona playing in the 1:00 p.m. slot this Sunday, because I'm tired of having their game as one to choose from at 4:00 p.m. I think the NFL needs to change the schedule around a bit, just because my head might explode by having to usually watch some variation of Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland and St. Louis at 4:00 p.m. But I think Arizona stays close with a struggling Chiefs squad.
Green Bay (-3) at Minnesota
Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay Packers travel to Minnesota to try and put the final nail in the Vikings' coffin. I keep telling myself this is the way it has to end.
Washington (+7) at Tennessee
One week later, and I'm still wondering what Washington did during its bye week. Tennessee should win, but I don't know if they'll be able to cover a 7-point spread. Or maybe I'm just bitter after picking the Titans and them losing to Miami's third-string quarterback last week.
Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas
Detroit has lost 25 straight on the road. Dallas has not won in four games at home this season. At least we'll get to see Jon Kitna and Roy Williams, members of the 2007 Lions that started 6-2, play against their old team. (Desperately searching for reasons to watch this game).
Cleveland (+2.5) at Jacksonville
It was a pleasure to hear Gus Johnson call David Garrard's Hail Mary that beat Houston last week. With the college basketball season getting underway, he's due for some big calls in the coming months. But with Jacksonville at 5-4, does anyone think they're a playoff team? Anyone?
Seattle at New Orleans (-11.5)
Seattle seemed to be easy to figure out. They would be the quintessential "good at home, awful on the road team" this season. But, as former WWE superstar Rowdy Roddy Piper once said, "Just when you think you have the answers, I change the question." And after road wins at Chicago and Arizona this year, we might have to think of Seattle as legitimate NFC West contenders. But I just don't feel they can compete on the road against New Orleans.
Indianapolis (+4) at New England
Looking back on it, you can't overstate the opportunity Peyton Manning let slip by in last February's Super Bowl. That was the team that was supposed to give him his second Super Bowl ring- and his late interception sealed the game for New Orleans. But it's the regular season, and the Colts are getting four in a rivalry game that's very competitive.
Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3.5)
I was hoping St. Louis would beat San Francisco last week, just so we could stop talking about them as a potential playoff team. I like the 49ers here though, as the Bucs struggle when they head out West and they're do for at least one clunker this season.
Atlanta at St. Louis (+3.5)
This is a game with two quarterbacks who were tasked with completely rejuvenating their franchises. Matt Ryan was drafted in the post-Mike Vick, post-Bobby Petrino era. Sam Bradford had to lead a team that went 1-15 with Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller and Keith Null at the helm. Credit these guys for doing a tremendous job. St. Louis is undefeated at home, and Atlanta might be looking ahead a bit to next Sunday's showdown against Green Bay at home.
New York at Philadelphia (-3)
Mike Vick returns to primetime after a fantasy football performance that will be talked about for decades. And as much as I want to pick the Giants here, I can't get the image out of my head of DeSean Jackson beating the New York secondary deep over and over in a Sunday night game last year at the Meadowlands.
Denver at San Diego (-9.5)
An NFC West game on Monday night. Ugh. This is historically the time when the Chargers play better, and I think they can cover this spread against a Denver team that seems to show up once every few weeks.
As always, enjoy the games!
tylertomea@gmail.com
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November 13, 2010 NFL Week 10: Season Starting to Take Shape

The Week 10 Picks!
Last Week: 6-6-1          This Week: 1-0          Season: 58-66-7
Baltimore at Atlanta (-1)
I will be posting the Thursday night pick each week on Facebook. (Still wondering why it took me so long to get one.) Anyway, with Thursday's victory, we may have to start putting "Never go against Matt Ryan at home" right next to the long-established rule of "Never go against Peyton Manning at night." Matty Ice is now 18-1 at the Georgia Dome, and has won his last 14 starts in Atlanta.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-7)
I'm going against Terrell Owens this week in a must-win fantasy game, and I'm officially terrified. And by the way, I would have never thought I'd type that sentence 10 weeks ago. Although the Bengals are the Picassos of garbage time, I think Indy builds a big enough lead early to maintain the cover.
Houston (+1) at Jacksonville
One of these teams is going to move to 5-4 after this game and, because they have a winning record after Week 10, we'll be forced to throw them into the playoff conversation. But does anyone outside of Houston and Jacksonville think they have a chance? Anyone?
Tennessee (-1) at Miami
It looks like Kerry Collins will get the call on Sunday, reuniting him with Randy Moss from their days on the 2005 Oakland Raiders.  While I'd be a bit more confident with VY at the helm, Jeff Fisher is stellar coming off a bye and Miami has turned to Chad Pennington at quarterback.
Minnesota (-1.5) at Chicago
This is what I like to call a "this can't happen game." Chicago can't move to 6-3 and tie Green Bay atop the NFC North, and Minnesota can't drop to 3-6 and eliminate themselves this early. But even though I picked the Vikings, I wouldn't mind seeing Chicago win if just for another week of Minnesota interviews following a loss.
Detroit (+1.5) at Buffalo
If ever there were a time for Buffalo to get its first win it would be here, at home, against Detroit. On the other side, Lions fans have to be wondering "what could have been?" after another injury to Matthew Stafford, this time with the team up 10 against the Jets. But Detroit has been sneakily competitive, and until Buffalo wins, it's hard to lay the points with them.
New York at Cleveland (+3.5)
We could get a preview of how LeBron will be treated in his return to Cleveland when Braylon Edwards makes the trip back this Sunday. OK maybe not, but I still think this is an interesting subplot. Cleveland keeps it close here as we continue to wonder how the Brady Quinn-Peyton Hillis deal ever happened.
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-7)
After nine weeks, I think I have to start buying the fact that Tampa Bay is a solid football team. Each time the Falcons scored last Sunday, the Bucs responded, and even had a chance late in the game to pull out a win on the road. Very impressive. As for Carolina, has there ever been a less inspiring offense than the 2010 Panthers? They are last in the NFL with 11 PPG, making "Carolina's opponent" an instant fantasy defense pickup.
Seattle at Arizona (-3)
I like Arizona about as much as anyone can like them in this week's game with Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck is returning for the Seahawks, and that is a good thing considering the way Charlie Whitehurst looked at home last week. But Seattle's blowout loss at Qwest Field- albeit to a very good New York team- has to be troubling.
St. Louis (+5.5) at San Francisco
As if one NFC West game during the same week wasn't enough, here's another! As crazy as it sounds, a win here coupled with a Seattle loss means San Francisco would be one game back in the division. At 3-6. I think the 49ers will win, but it's hard to pass up the chance to get 5.5 points against Troy Smith.
Kansas City (-1) at Denver
Kansas City really missed a golden opportunity to improve to 6-2 in last week's game at Oakland. A Matt Cassel interception late in the first half prevented the Chiefs from extending a 10-0 lead, and then Kansas City allowed Jason Campbell to engineer a game-tying drive in the final two minutes. A tricky game here at Denver, but I think the Chiefs recover.
Dallas at New York (-13.5)
One broken clavicle, a Wade Phillips firing and a Jerry Jones press conference later and here we are. Dallas, as underdogs by nearly two touchdowns against the rival New York Giants. And after seeing the Cowboys play on Sunday at Lambeau Field, this spread might be too low.
New England (+4.5) at Pittsburgh
Somebody somewhere had to lose their fantasy game last week by a point due to Wes Welker's PAT. How can you possibly bounce back from a loss like that?!?!  Anyway, I think getting 4.5 points with New England is too much, and I think Belichick and Brady respond nicely after last week's loss.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Sometime after 3 p.m. on Halloween, things were looking great for Washington. They had the ball, were leading by five against Detroit, and needed a couple of first downs to head into the bye week at 5-3. Two weeks and one Rex Grossman sighting later, and the Redskins are in a tough spot this Monday. Yeah, I think I'll take the Eagles.
As always, enjoy the games!
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November 6, 2010 NFL Week 9: First Weekend in November

The Week 9 Picks!
Last week: 6-7                            Season: 51-60-6
San Diego (-3) at Houston
The NFL's top aerial attack going against the league's worst passing defense. The Texans are in trouble, even if Philip Rivers is throwing to Seyi Ajirotutu, Patrick Crayton and Gary Banks. Anyway, this is usually the point in the season when Norv Turner's Chargers make their run.
Arizona (+8) at Minnesota
There is the thinking that Minnesota will be able to put together a solid game- at home- against one of the league's worst run defenses. But then there's this and this, and you wonder if the Vikings will be able to win by more than a touchdown. 
New England (-4) at Cleveland
My only interest in this contest would be for the postgame handshake between Bill Belichick and his former protege Eric Mangini- which usually lasted less than one second when Mangini was coaching the Jets.
Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Atlanta
Apparently the sportsbooks aren't listening when Raheem Morris continues to proclaim Tampa Bay as the best team in the NFC, as shown by this spread. I don't think the Bucs will win this game, but 8.5 points is a lot for a team playing the "nobody believes in us" card.
Chicago (-3) vs Buffalo (Rogers Center)
The Bills haven't won at home in their last 11 games (not counting the Week 17 30-7 victory against an Indianapolis team resting all its players.) How devastating would it be for Buffalo if its team gets its first "home" victory of the season in a different country? I'm just going to close my eyes, pick Jay Cutler's Bears, and hope for the best.
Miami (+5) at Baltimore
Miami is 4-3 on the season, with all four wins coming on the road and three losses at home. But I thought home field advantage meant everything in the NFL!?!?!? Glad I'll be able to watch this game tomorrow.
New York (-4.5) at Detroit
New York's game against Green Bay last week was eerily similar to last year's 10-7 home loss to Atlanta late in the season. But I don't think Mark Sanchez and Co. will have any body language issues this week in Detroit, as I expect a big day for the Jets offense. 
New Orleans at Carolina (+7)
New Orleans rebounded nicely from their 30-17 home loss to Cleveland with a key win at home against Pittsburgh. But they have only blown out one team this year (Tampa Bay by 25) from a schedule that has included San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona and Cleveland. Carolina may have one of the NFL's worst offenses in years, but they were leading New Orleans on the road- in the 4th quarter- earlier this year.
Indianapolis (+3) at Philadelphia
I know Andy Reid is 11-0 following the bye. I know Mike Vick is returning for Philly. I know... wait a minute, Peyton Manning as a 3-point underdog? Sign me up!
New York at Seattle (+7.5)
Charlie Whitehurst is starting for Seattle, but is there really that much of a drop-off between him and Matt Hasselbeck? My worry is with New York knocking out quarterbacks left and right, Zac Robinson would be next if Whitehurst goes out. (Shuddering at this thought.) But I've been fooled by Seattle before, so I'll take them at home- where they seem to resemble a good team.
Kansas City (+1) at Oakland
This is the first relevant game for the Oakland franchise since its Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay in 2003. With the Raiders being horrible throughout my high school years, it's easy to see why I've had such a hard time coming to grips with the fact that they could actually be decent. But if they win this week, I'll give them some respect. (At least that's what I keep telling myself.)
Dallas at Green Bay (-7)
If there were ever a week when NBC needed to flex to a better game, it would have to be Week 9. Unfortunately, this only comes into effect for the last seven weeks of the season, so we're stuck with Dallas in the night game. And after reading these quotes from their head coach, I don't think I'll be picking Dallas for a very, very long time.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+5)
We will look back on the Bengals not claiming Randy Moss as one of the most disappointing things of the 2010 NFL season. Tell me anyone who would not watch Moss/Owens/Ochocinco- on a weekly basis! Anyway, Cincy did beat Pittsburgh twice last year, and I think they get up for this Monday Night home game.
As always, enjoy the games!
tylertomea@gmail.com

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