NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 109-109-7          Last Week: 10-5-1          This Week: 0-1 

Cleveland at Baltimore (-42.5) Baltimore (-12.5)

After a week of hearing how they rolled over in San Diego, the Ravens receive the perfect team to get them back on the right track: The 2011 Cleveland Browns! And no need to fear the Browns players wanting to exact revenge for Art Modell moving the team from Cleveland to Baltimore in the mid-1990s, most of the current Browns were in their pre-teen years then.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Washington

Thank God I'm still not in Washington, D.C. to watch this game, as there's a good chance I would have jumped out my third floor window by the third quarter of this fiasco. 

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-7.5)

Giving more than a touchdown is a lot to ask of a team that is 5-9 I thought, until I remembered watching the Bucs completely mail it in Saturday against Dallas. Cam Newton fantasy owners, rejoice!

Denver at Buffalo (+3.5)

Rather than spend 100 words trying to explain to you why I like Buffalo, I'll just hope this pick doesn't look bad by the first TV timeout.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)

Jacksonville's quarterback: Blaine Gabbert
The receivers Blaine Gabbert will be throwing to: Some combination of Taylor Price, Chastin West and Colin Cloherty. After this inevitably bad performance, I predict 65 Wildcat snaps next weekend for Maurice Jones-Drew.

New York Giants (+3) at New York Jets

With most of my friends on Facebook either being Jets or Giants fans, I'm looking forward to the bevy of insults being thrown back and forth between the hours of 1 and 4 p.m. Saturday.

Oakland (+2) at Kansas City

Let's get statistical for a moment, shall we?
---> The Raiders have won four straight games at Kansas City.
---> Oakland is 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight at Arrowhead.
Long field goals and booming punts all afternoon!

Miami (+10.5) at New England

Cousin Sal made a great point in his Grantland blog: With the way Reggie Bush has been playing these last few games, imagine how much of a psychological boost he will get with this game being played on a Saturday. The New England defense will look like Washington State, or some other inferior Pac-12 foe.

St. Louis (+16.5) at Pittsburgh

I see Pittsburgh running the ball. I see Pittsburgh continuing to run the ball. I see Pittsburgh not attempting a pass that travels 40 yards in the air. All of this adds up to a 17-3 game that could be over while every other game is at halftime.

Arizona (+4.5) at Cincinnati

With a win here, Arizona guarantees itself of a non-losing season. I don't know how that ended up happening either.

San Diego (+2.5) at Detroit
San Francisco at Seattle (+2.5)
Philadelphia (+1.5) at Dallas

Here's where things get shaky, with my family arriving at my house at 4:30 for Christmas Eve. (Clearly, there was a thought process behind that time. By 4:30 all of the 1 p.m. games will be completed, even if anything goes to overtime). So, I'll have to find some way around spending time with my family in order to watch these three games. (I already felt guilty just writing that sentence).

Chicago (+13) at Green Bay

The Bears have opted to go with a McCown brother this Sunday in Green Bay. Which one? I don't know. But if Seattle wins, Green Bay will have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And McCown obviously can't be worse than Caleb Hanie, who I'll remember for throwing the ball DIRECTLY AT Seattle's Red Bryant last week.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-6.5)

Always taking Drew Brees at home at night is nearing its place among one of the steadfast rules when it comes to picking these games.

NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 100-104-6          Last Week: 8-8          This Week: 1-1 (Completely forgot Tampa Bay had already mailed in its 2011 season two weeks ago)

Carolina (+6.5) at Houston

Brutal start to the bowl season, going 1-2 through the first three games (straight-up picks, no confidence points). Utah State gave up a 23-10 lead in the middle game, while San Diego State shows us how to lose a game in 50 seconds in the nightcap.

It's only fair then that, with his team trailing by 13 points with 35 seconds remaining, Cam Newton trots into the endzone untouched to make amends for yesterday's disaster.

Washington at New York Giants (-7)

No Osi? Possibly no Justin Tuck? No problem! (OK, slight problem, but it sounded better if I wrote it that way). Washington coming into the Meadowlands sets up a perfect stress free game for Giants fans after Miles Austin and the Cowboys Stadium lights kept their season alive last week.

Green Bay (-14) at Kansas City

This could be the last opportunity to pick the Packers at full strength before the playoffs come around. And then I ask you this: If Kyle Orton couldn't consistently throw properly with 10 good fingers, how is he going to do it with nine?

New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota

When a high-powered offense comes into Minnesota, and reports surface during the week that a horrible Vikings secondary has been ignoring defensive play calls this season, I tend to side with the high-powered offense.

Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago

My suggestion: Watch any and all of Devin Hester's punt returns, then immediately switch this game off before either offense takes the field. Chicago: 3, Seattle: 0

Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis

Two inspired 4th quarter efforts in recent weeks by Indianapolis. The Colts trailed 31-3 at New England and lost 31-24, then scored a touchdown on the last play of the game to cover last week in Baltimore. There's no way Indianapolis gets up for this week's game 4th quarter though.

Cincinnati (-6.5) at St. Louis

When I wrote last week to take the Bengals against the Texans because this isn't your typical Cincinnati team filled with ex-convicts and felons, I completely forgot Pacman Jones was on the team! How could I!?!? Of course, Pacman's penalty essentially cost Cincy the victory. But no worries in this game, as 10 boneheaded plays from the Pacman can't make up for the Rams' overall incompetence.

Miami (-1.5) at Buffalo

This line might seem a little off until you remember Buffalo already buried itself at 1:00 p.m. EST on Nov. 13 in Dallas.

Detroit (-1) at Oakland

All we'll need is Kevin Smith's ankles to hold up for three quarters here, and we should be good. Also, the following prop needs to be listed in some sportsbook somewhere (if it's not already): Will there be a penalty on the kickoff? YES (+270) NO (-230) OFFSETTING PENALTIES (+1200).

Cleveland (+7) at Arizona

Moving on...

New England (-6) at Denver

Similar to the well-known rule of never taking Dallas in Arizona is the rule of never taking Tom Brady in Denver. But that ruled applied at a time when Denver's receivers were catching footballs that were actually spiraling towards them.

New York Jets at Philadelphia (-2.5)
Baltimore at San Diego (+2.5)

These games can go one of two ways, and we'll know pretty early on: Either both Philly and San Diego fight for 60 minutes and put forth inspired efforts, or they take a cue from Tampa Bay on Saturday and mail it in after the first commercial break. I'm hoping (praying?) for the former, and not the latter.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at San Francisco

It looks like Ben Roethlisberger will play, and Roethlisberger on one leg, somehow, is still 75 percent better than Alex Smith on two.

NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 91-96-6          Last Week: 8-8          This Week: 0-1

Houston at Cincinnati (-3)

If you're thinking about jumping off the Bengals after their 35-7 loss at Pittsburgh, now's not the time. Remember, this isn't your typical Cincinnati team filled with ex-convicts and felons, and may put every defender in the box against the Andre Johnson-less Texans.

Kansas City at New York Jets (-10)

Despite Tyler Palko's suckiness being well-known, he has managed to cover two of the three games he's started; A modern Christmas miracle! But the run ends at the Meadowlands, where Palko's inability to complete another Hail Mary voids the Chiefs of any semblance of offense.

Minnesota at Detroit (-9.5)

Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson enter this game as questionable for the Vikes. You know who else is questionable? The rest of Minnesota's 53-man roster! Detroit mixes in touchdowns with some leg drops to various Minnesota offensive linemen for the cover.

Tampa Bay (-2) at Jacksonville

In lieu of talking about this awful game, let's examine my first round fantasy football matchup in my main league, shall we. (I understand how annoying it is to listen to someone talk about fantasy football, much less write about it. So if you want to skip this, by all means, feel free).

I'll be going with: Eli, Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, DeMarco Murray, Gore, Witten, A.J. Green, Matt Bryant and the Denver defense.

I'll be going up against: Roethlisberger, Calvin Johnson, Lance Moore, Mendenhall, Kevin Smith (or Maurice Morris), Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Nick Novak and the Green Bay defense.

Winning this week (and the two weeks that follow) will require a tiny bit of luck but a LARGE amount of skill.

Philadelphia (+3) at Miami

Everything about Miami has to come crashing down at some point, right? What happened to the Dolphins' home-field disadvantage? Where is that team that blew a 15-0 late lead to Denver at home? Where is it!?!

New Orleans (-3.5) at Tennessee

The Titans are the popular upset pick this week. But I don't want to be the guy hoping for Tennessee to cover when I realize "Wait, who is Matt Hasselbeck throwing to again?" (The answer is some form of Jared Cook, Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins).

New England (-8) at Washington

No need to over think this one and wonder why this line is so low, I took care of that already. Instead, look at this as an early Christmas gift from the bookies and cash in as much as you can.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5)

The plan here is to not watch a minute of this game until the last five minutes, when Indianapolis will be down 23 and driving in hopes of executing its second consecutive backdoor cover.

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina

Atlanta continues its season-long process of losing to the good teams on its schedule and defeating the average to bad teams en route to its definite first round loss come January.

Chicago (+3.5) at Denver

Am I the only one siding with Caleb Hanie instead of Tim Tebow this weekend? I am? OK, just checking.

San Francisco (-4) at Arizona

The longstanding rule of taking Arizona at home against Dallas (and the Cards not only covering, but winning) has pushed this spread down to four. I'll take the rock solid 49ers against the skittish Kevin Kolb, thank you very much.

Buffalo at San Diego (-6.5)

After starting off 4-1, the Bills are now set to continue getting blown out by various teams over the remainder of their schedule, with the trend continuing Sunday at San Diego.

Oakland (+12) at Green Bay

Deep punts and long field goals. Deep punts and long field goals. Deep punts and long field goals.

New York Giants (+3.5) at Dallas

If ever there were a game where the home team should be favored by three (thereby signaling the teams as equal), it would be this one. Dallas blew a win in Arizona that would have allowed them to clinch the NFC East in this game, while the Giants went toe-to-toe with Green Bay and the Giants are getting an extra half point? Take the Giants and watch as Eli advances me into the fantasy semifinals.

St. Louis at Seattle (-6.5)

Instead of a good game to watch while I inevitably procrastinate studying for my finals, I get stuck with this. What the *%&$!

NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 83-88-6          Last Week: 8-8         This Week: 0-1


Indianapolis at New England (-20.5)

Nope, this is not a misprint. Fortunately for us Patriots pickers, we only have to give less than three touchdowns, a full 10 points below where this spread should have been.

Tennessee (+1.5) at Buffalo
Atlanta (-2.5) at Houston

Big week for the AFC South. If the Titans get this game in Buffalo, they'll be 9-6 (vs. NO, @ Indy, vs. JAC) heading into Houston in Week 17.
If the Texans win against Atlanta, they could be 11-4 (@ CIN, vs. CAR, @ Indy), make their Week 17 matchup against the Titans meaningless and in the process relieve their fans from the torture they feel around this time each year.

Carolina (+3) at Tampa Bay

Excuse me while I go pray to Tim Tebow's God that a few of my fantasy football starters match up against these defenses in the fantasy playoffs.

Kansas City at Chicago (-7)

You: That's a lot of points to be laying with Caleb Hanie in his second start of the season.
Me: Did you see Tyler Palko last Sunday night? Did you?!?

Denver (+1.5) at Minnesota

This has all the makings of a trap game: The Broncos coming in having won four straight, fourth game in five weeks on the road, the inability for their quarterback to complete the forward pass. Until you realize that the Vikings completely suck.

Oakland (+3) at Miami

I know, I know, the Raiders traveling across the country to play a feisty Dolphins team could turn out horribly by 3:00 p.m. Sunday afternoon. But think of Matt Moore having to go 85-yards each drive after Shane Lechler's punts and the Raiders only needing to move the ball to Miami's 40 for Sebastian Janikowski. (Yes, I am basing this pick completely on field goal kicking and punting).

Cincinnati (+7) at Pittsburgh

The Bengals have been good to me all year, starting all the way back with their (then) Week 1 upset at Cleveland straight through the rest of the season.

New York Jets at Washington (+3.5)

Just when you say it's time for Rex Grossman to completely implode, I say no! One more good performance from Rex keeps the Redskins close with the Jets, as he waits until next week for his three-interception game.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
St. Louis at San Francisco (-13.5)

The Browns and Rams; two of my favorite teams to pick against in 2011!

Arizona (+4.5) at Dallas

There are some weird, unexplainable things when it comes to picking games against the spread. One of those is that whenever Dallas plays at Arizona, you take the Cardinals. Don't ask why, just do it.

Green Bay (-6) at New York Giants

This being a desperation game for the Giants does nothing in terms of helping them prepare for an offense that has given them all kinds of trouble in the past.

Detroit at New Orleans (-9)

Another night contest against a team with no running game, another Saints blowout by midway through the third quarter!

San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville

There really is nothing better than seeing Jacksonville on Monday night for the second time this season. You hear me? Nothing better! (I know, corny attempt at a joke. But I had to thrown in the obligatory 'I can't believe the Jags are on Monday night again comment).