September 25, 2011

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 17-12-3        Last Week: 8-6-2


All lines courtesy of the New York Post


San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5)

By playing Frank Gore at running back, A.J. Green at flex and using the Bengals as my defense, I'm embarrassed to admit how closely I'll be tracking a game between the 49ers and Bengals.

New England (-7.5) at Buffalo

With us not being able to use the "Never pick against Peyton Manning at night," reasoning this season, I'm in favor of adopting "Never bet against Tom Brady," as the official gambling motto for 2011.

Houston (+4) at New Orleans

In order for this pick to work, this means Houston has to play well three straight weeks in a row. It has to happen one of these years, right? Right?

Miami (+2.5) at Cleveland

This game seems to be the perfect space to discuss my Week 2 fantasy matchup. If you haven't read the last two weeks, here's my team (12-team PPR)
QB- Eli Manning
RB- Frank Gore, Jahvid Best
WR- Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall
TE- Jason Witten
FLEX- Mario Manningham

I was well on my way to a 2-0 start, until Tony Gonzalez randomly went for 7-83-2 to put me down 23.90 heading into Monday's matchup between the Rams and Giants.

Towards the end of the first half, Manning threw a perfect pass down the left sideline to Manningham. Easy catch. Easy touchdown. 2-0 record.

But instead of catching the ball, Manningham bobbled it, fell to the ground (made the catch) and in the process concussed himself and knocked himself from the game. Unbelievable.

So in the span of three seconds, I went from winning my week to having my player knock himself out of the game by banging his head against the turf to eventually losing 155-90-155.70. Worst. Loss. Ever.

Or was it?

Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota

Every Sunday from 3:00 p.m. to 3:45 p.m. I'm in a meeting with no Internet access. On Sunday afternoons, I think the only thing worse than this would be being forced to watch the WNBA Game of the Week.

Last week, I left thinking I had clearly got suckered into taking Tampa Bay and the points in Minnesota, only to return to see the Vikings had blown a 10-point lead with less than 10 minutes left. And with that, Detroit is the pick!

Denver (+6.5) at Tennessee

Perfect! An opportunity to continue my Week 2 fantasy story!

So Tuesday and Wednesday I'm irate that I had just lost by 0.2.

At around 1:00 a.m. Thursday morning, I logedg onto my team page to check out any notes on my players, to read the following on Manning's player page:

Manning got 23 yards added to his season total Wednesday when receiver Hakeem Nicks was credited with a 23-yard catch in Monday night's game against the Rams.

After reading that sentence, I think I was the happiest I've ever been in my life. (I, too, recognize how sad that is).

Did I tell the now-losing owner how I've never seen that happen before, and how I felt bad that he had to deal with a stat-corrected loss? Absolutely not! Instead, taunting texts/emails were sent!

Wow. 155.90-155.70 loss to a 156.62-155.70 stat-corrected win. 2-0. Best. win. ever.

New York Giants (+8) at Philadelphia

Me: I need a starting quarterback for this week.
Friend: How about you stick with Eli?
Me (Dr. Evil voice): How about nooooo?

New York Jets at Oakland (+3.5) 

Bill Simmons is using Matthew Stafford If He Stays Healthy as the quarterback's name in all his columns. This would also work for Oakland: The Oakland Raiders If They Don't Commit Dumb Penalties.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago

When one quarterback doesn't know if he'll be able to survive the 2011 season, I tend to take the other team.

Atlanta (+1.5) at Tampa Bay

Amazing that we were one Michael Vick injury and one fourth-quarter collapse away from this being a must-win game between two 0-2 teams.


Jacksonville (+3.5) at Carolina
Arizona at Seattle (+3.5)
Kansas City (+14.5) at San Diego

When it's around 8:00 p.m. Sunday night and I'm contemplating jumping out my third-floor window, it will most likely be because of my three selections in these games

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Don't worry Rams fans, you'll be playing each team in the NFC West twice soon enough.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis

My God.

Washington (+6.5) at Dallas

In the decision between Rex Grossman going up against a blitzing, competent defense and a starting quarterback with a punctured lung, I'll go with Grossman.

By the way, he'll be my starting quarterback as I look to go 3-0. So if you don't hear from me on Tuesday, you'll know why.

Enjoy the games!













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September 18, 2011

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 9-6-1          Last Week: 9-6-1

All lines courtesy of the New York Post

Oakland at Buffalo (-3)

In these situations, I usually try to take the team who didn't have to play the Week 1 late Monday night game and then travel over 2,500 miles for a 1:00 p.m. kickoff.

Jacksonville (+9.5) at New York Jets

Trust me, the last thing this is is an endorsement of the third McCown brother and the 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars. Instead, it's a feeling that Jacksonville keeps it close with a team that always is in tight games.

Kansas City at Detroit (-8)

The only way to celebrate the Lions being the biggest favorites they've been in over a decade is by picking them to cover as the biggest favorites they've been in over a decade!

Arizona at Washington (-3.5)

Washington: You make fun of the Redskins all year, and now you're taking us as 3.5 favorites? What's up with that, Tyler?
Tyler: Settle down, Washington. I liked what I saw on Sunday, and if Cam Newton could throw for over 400 yards on the road at Arizona, I'll take my chances with Grossman in a 1:00 p.m. start. No hard feelings?
Washington: No hard feelings.
Tyler: Thanks. I love your city by the way.

Chicago (+6.5) at New Orleans

Really wish I could watch this game to get a stronger sense of these two teams, especially the Bears. Aside from Baltimore-Pittsburgh, Chicago's 30-12 victory over Atlanta was the most eye-opening score from Sunday.

Baltimore at Tennessee (+6)

There's nothing like Chris Johnson getting nine carries last week, Mike Munchak getting killed in the media for it and then me looking at my fantasy schedule and seeing Johnson on my opponent's team for Week 2.

Green Bay (-10) at Carolina

I'm going to go ahead and say Cam Newton will have a little bit more trouble with the Green Bay defense than he had with Arizona in his debut.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-14)

Tarvaris Jackson. At Pittsburgh. Yep, that's about all I need to know here. And with this unofficially being the most popular pick in suicide pool history, I think pool participants would actually commit suicide if Seattle won this game.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Minnesota

Not if, but when I complain about all the bad beats I've had this year at the end of the season, please remind me that I took Green Bay, Minnesota and San Francisco in Week 1.

Cleveland (-2) at Indianapolis

I think it was around 1:40 p.m. last week that I decided to concede the Indianapolis-Houston game; a new personal record!

San Diego (+7) at New England

My favorite part from last Monday's Dolphins-Patriots game: Leading 31-17 in the 4th quarter from his own one, every coach either runs (95 percent likely) or calls play action. Instead, Bill Belichick says screw it, and calls for a shotgun five wide receiver streak to Wes Welker that goes for a 99-yard touchdown. Too funny.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Denver

I could care less about this game, so why not use this space to recap my fantasy football week? My team in my main league started off 1-0, thanks to my Week 1 opponent having to replace the injured Arian Foster and Peyton Manning with backups. Will I take the victory, even though his top two players were out? Your damn right I will! Here's my roster in that league (12-team, PPR scoring):

Eli Manning
Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall
Frank Gore, Jahvid Best
Jason Witten
Mario Manningham at the flex position.

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco
Houston (-3) at Miami

Two similar situations, and I'm a little surprised the spreads aren't higher in both cases. The Cowboys took a 24-10 lead in the 4th quarter against the Jets. Now, they're only favored by three against an NFC West team? The Texans took care of business, and now take on the Dolphins, who just gave up over 600 yards of offense. Because I don't think either San Francisco or Miami can win, I thought they'd be getting at least 3.5.

Philadelphia (-2.5) at Atlanta

I know Matt Ryan doesn't lose at home. I know taking the Falcons as an underdog in the Georgia Dome seems like a no-brainer. But I still can't get the picture out of my head of Green Bay trouncing the Falcons in Atlanta in last year's playoffs, and then there's last week's 30-12 road loss in Chicago.

St. Louis at New York Giants (-6)

The injury-depleted Giants, coming off a 28-14 loss to the Redskins, take on the injury-depleted Rams, coming off a 31-13 loss to the Eagles, in an arms race to see which team can hold off potentially crippling injuries the longest.

Enjoy the games!

















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September 8, 2011

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Last NFL season started off with the New Orleans Saints defeating the Minnesota Vikings 14-9 in the Superdome. The spread I was using for that game was 4.5, and a Ryan Longwell blocked extra point cost me the cover. Rather than put a bullet through my head, I picked 16 more weeks worth of games and struggled to a below .500 record. Here's to a better 2011!

All lines courtesy of the New York Post

New Orleans at Green Bay (-4.5)

Really looking forward to this opener, but I'd like to use this space to welcome one of my friends to the world of picking games against the spread. Last year, if the Packers made a field goal to extend their lead from three to six, he'd be thinking of how the Saints now need a touchdown to win. His thought process when they do that tonight: "Green Bay's covering!"

Tennessee (+1.5) at Jacksonville

I have one rule when it comes to picking these games: Never ever give points when one of the McCown brothers is the starting quarterback.

Buffalo (+6.5) at Kansas City

Another year, and another NFL season of low expectations for the Bills! But with those low expectations can come numerous backdoor covers throughout the season, perhaps starting this Sunday.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

It was fun tracking this point spread change as the preseason wore on and people started falling in love with the Lions. It went from Tampa Bay by 3.5, and swung 2.5 points all the way down to the Bucs by 1. (And yes, I too recognize how sad it is that I find this interesting).

Atlanta (-3) at Chicago

I have zero confidence in the Bears/Jay Cutler this year.

Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5)

The first NFL Sunday of 2011 starts with the Eagles at the Rams on Fox. I'll get to watch half of this (and all other 1 p.m. games), before I head over to our student newspaper office from 2:30-8:00 and read stories about our women's soccer team instead of watch the NFL.

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Very few things in the world are scarier than saying, "I'll take the 38-year-old Kerry Collins-led Colts on the road."

Cincinnati (+7) at Cleveland

Actually, I've found something scarier: "I'll take the Andy Dalton-led and Marvin Lewis-coached Bengals at the Dawg Pound."

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-1.5)

Leaning towards Baltimore here and we know this will be a close game, so I'd like to use this space to rank three of the great inventions of our time:

1.) Playing 15 games a week on Sundays

2.) The remote control

3.) Creating point spreads for those 15 games.

Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5)

Our first look at Tarvaris Jackson in a Seattle uniform!

New York Giants (-3) at Washington

The Giants are missing a lot of players from their defense, but I'm surprised a lot of people are leaning Washington on this game. Rex Grossman is the starting quarterback. You hear me? Rex Grossman!

Carolina (+7) at Arizona

Because Larry Fitzgerald is my No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, I'll be forced to track 16 of Arizona's 17 games in 2011. And I'm not sure if that's a good thing.

Minnesota (+9.5) at San Diego

The Chargers have been among the most talented teams for a couple of years now. Many playoff failures later, and somehow, Norv Turner is still the head coach.

Dallas (+5) at New York Jets

I don't think there's any team I'm more interested this season than Dallas. How will the offensive line gel? How will the team play in a full season under Jason Garrett? Should I have drafted Felix Jones over Jahvid Best to save me the frustration of when Best misses 6 games this year?

Miami at New England (-7)
Oakland at Denver (-3)

Is anyone else in favor of extending the Monday night doubleheader for 16 weeks and not just Week 1?

Enjoy the games! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter