Because this spread is an overreaction line following New England's dominance of Denver and Baltimore's lackluster effort at home against Houston.
Because Joe Flacco can't look as poor as he did against the Houston defense against the New England defense.
Because this pick was made with me remembering Flacco's game-winning drive at Pittsburgh and not the performance he mailed in during the Sunday night game in San Diego.
Because of Ray Rice.
Because Baltimore doesn't believe it can keep it close, it believes it can actually win the game.
Because I picked them in a playoff pool, and would be forced to root for them no matter what, so I might as well pick them here.
Because of Ray Rice.
Because if the Jets won last year, why can't the Ravens keep it within a touchdown this year?
New York Giants (+2.5) at San Francisco
Because it's a bad sign that despite forcing five turnovers, San Francisco was trailing with 45 seconds left.
Because I want the already played out "Is Eli Elite?" storyline to continue for another three weeks.
Because if the Patriots win earlier in the day, the Giants will win. It has to happen.
Because it's scary to look at the stat line from San Francisco's wide receivers last week.
Because, hopefully, this game won't need to come down to a Lawrence Tynes vs David Akers battle.
Because the Giants have the better playmakers, and are riding the same wave they rode to Super Bowl 42.
While God will be focused on the game in New England later in the night, this could turn out to be the best matchup of the weekend.
If this game were in New Orleans, the 49ers wouldn't have a chance. At all.
But with it being in San Francisco, outdoors and on grass, I don't know who will win. But it will be close.
Denver (+13.5) at New England
I see the Broncos keeping it within two touchdowns as Tim Tebow threatens to single-handedly crash Twitter between the hours of 8 and 11 p.m. Saturday.
Also, if you took the odds-on favorite in my "Tim Tebow's first pass" prop bet last week, you would have cashed. (Cashed easily, I might add). Did you see how off target that throw was!?!?
Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)
Giving more than a touchdown with Joe Flacco is always tough, especially in the playoffs.
But if you do take the Texans, imagine how you'll be feeling around 2:30 p.m. Sunday, when Houston is down 13-0 on the road and T.J. Yates has completed five passes while throwing two interceptions at halftime.
New York Giants (+7.5) at Green Bay
The Giants return to Lambeau for the first time since knocking off the Packers in the 2007 playoffs for what will be a fun way to wrap up the divisional weekend.
(I know, I know. They played there last season. But now's not the time to bring that debacle up. Positive thoughts!)
And I'd also like to use this space to be the first person to let you know that this Giants team brings back memories of the team that won Super Bowl 42.
With T.J. Yates just needing to exist in the two seconds between receiving the snap and handing it off to Arian Foster or Ben Tate, the Texans and their defense should be fine at home against the Bengals.
And if Houston wins, it'll allow me to cash in the following bet I made back in Week 1.
Will a red-headed quarterback win an NFL playoff game in 2011? NO (-1600)
Detroit at New Orleans (-10.5)
Never go against Drew Brees at night in the Superdome. Never go against Drew Brees at night in the Superdome. Never go against Drew Brees at night in the Superdome.
The best chance for the Lions would be if Ndamukong Suh injures Drew Brees, leading to the following prop bet being listed at sportsbooks.
Which professional wrestling move will Ndamukong Suh use to try and hurt Drew Brees Saturday?
A steel chair to the head (-110) Hulk Hogan's leg drop (+250)
A baseball bat to the knee (+400)
The Undertaker's piledriver (+800)
Atlanta at New York Giants (-3)
The Giants could lose this game, or win against Atlanta and beat the Packers in Green Bay, and I wouldn't be surprised either way. Here's to hoping Atlanta doesn't look too closely at what Washington did in Week 15 at the Meadowlands.
Following a Giants win, who will Brandon Jacobs inevitably insult?
Green Bay's fans (+250)
Aaron Rodgers (+500) The city of Green Bay (+650)
The state of Wisconsin (+1400)
Pittsburgh at Denver (+8.5)
Pittsburgh's last four games on the road:
Win over the Bengals, 24-17
Win over the Chiefs, 13-9 (Tyler Palko)
Loss against the 49ers, 20-3
Win over the Browns, 13-9 (Seneca Wallace)
Denver always plays better as an underdog, and Pittsburgh has had trouble covering as a large favorite this season. And they'll have trouble covering Sunday.
What will be the result of Tim Tebow's first pass?
Complete (+200) Incomplete (-150)
Causes the people you're watching with to break out in laughter because of its inaccuracy (-300)
What's the biggest credit to Reggie Bush, you ask? After having zero impact the past five years, the words "Reggie Bush will miss Sunday's game" now have sort of an impact on who you end up picking.
Washington (+9) at Philadelphia
The Redskins will finish with at least 10 losses, the Wizards are winless, the Capitals sit in ninth in the Eastern Conference and the Nationals have never had a winning season. Washington D.C. sports, everybody!
San Francisco (-10.5) at St. Louis
How easy would it have been to fill out your NFC playoff bracket had Seattle defeated the 49ers last week? Insanely easy, I say! The Packers would have reached the Super Bowl by defeating the Saints (who, by virtue of the Seahawks victory, would become locks for an NFC Championship appearance following a home win over San Fran), with the only tough NFC game to pick being the 4/5 matchup.
Chicago (+1.5) at Minnesota
Sample headline: "Ponder clears concussion tests, expected to start for Peterson-less Vikings Sunday." And it's Chicago getting the point and a half?!?!
Detroit (-3.5) at Green Bay Tampa Bay (+11.5) at Atlanta
Detroit beats up on various Green Bay backups, then proceeds to beat up on their backups en route to an easy win that prevents the Lions from traveling to New Orleans.
Meanwhile, in Atlanta, the "Yes, isn't it obvious we've completely mailed in the season?" Bucs stay within 11 of the Falcons as Raheem Morris is handed a pink slip at the two-minute warning.
Carolina (+8.5) at New Orleans
To commemorate Cam Newton covering point spreads for me all year, I almost feel obligated to take him at New Orleans in the season finale. It's the least I can do.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+7)
I don't know how much Ben Roethlisberger will be playing. You don't know how much Ben Roethlisberger will be playing. Rather than pretend to know how effective he'll be and explain why in a 100-word blurb, let's just leave it at that.
Indianapolis (+3.5) at Jacksonville
You're a Rams fan. You need the Colts to defeat an NFL team Sunday. If you could choose any quarterback to go against the Colts (other than Tyler Palko), who would it be? Of course it would be Blaine Gabbert!
Tennessee (-2) at Houston
There could be a Jake Delhomme sighting in Houston tomorrow. I repeat: JAKE DELHOMME.
Baltimore (-2) at Cincinnati
A lot of people are saying they like the Bengals this week. To those people, two things: 1.) How about you say that to my face? and 2.) Wait a second, those same Bengals who were one Early Doucet trip away from blowing a 23-0 lead to Arizona with their playoff lives on the line?
Buffalo at New England (-10.5)
You sign guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick to a $59 million extension for moments like these, when everyone wonders whether or not he'll lead a drive that results in a backdoor cover for Buffalo in the game's final two minutes.
Kansas City (+3.5) at Denver San Diego (+3) at Oakland
Kyle Orton starting for two teams in the division. Tebow. The Chiefs seeing all of their best players get injured. Tyler Palko. Tebow. Oakland setting the penalties record. The Raiders getting robbed for trading for Carson Palmer. Norv Turner's last hurrah. Tebow.
A season of intrigue in the AFC West!
Seattle (+3) at Arizona
One team will reach eight wins, and everyone will wonder how exactly that happened when looking back at the 2011 standings.
Dallas at New York Giants (-3)
Primetime matchup with the NFC East title on the line and best of all, I'll be in attendance! With that said, I leave you with this. Enjoy Week 17.
