October 25, 2012

NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 53-52          Last Week: 7-6          This Week: 0-1

Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-6.5)

A crushing home loss to New Orleans followed by a Thursday night road game in Minnesota should be enough to ensure the Bucs lose by at least a touchdown against the Vikings.

But why spend anymore time discussing the game when I can post this video of AU midfielder Colin Seigfreid celebrating his goal by giving the Stone Cold Stunner to AU grad and friend of the blog Zack Solomon?

The only thing that could have been better is if a teammate dropped down to count the 1-2-3.




The rest:

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3.5)
Miami (+2.5) at New York Jets
New England (-7.5) vs. St. Louis (London)

San Diego at Cleveland (+3.5)
Carolina (+7.5) at Chicago
Atlanta at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Seattle at Detroit (-2.5)
Jacksonville (+13.5) at Green Bay
Washington at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Oakland (+1.5) at Kansas City
New York Giants (-1.5) at Dallas
New Orleans (+6.5) at Denver
San Francisco at Arizona (+7.5) 



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October 18, 2012

NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 46-46          Last Week: 5-9          This Week: 0-1

Seattle at San Francisco (-7.5)

Going 11-17 over the past two weeks isn't the best way to begin October, especially after such a strong start to the season. I blame A-Rod.

For tonight I'm backing San Francisco at home, thanks to the following stat from our A+ research team here at the blog: With Jim Harbaugh as coach, the 49ers have allowed 11 points combined in four games following a loss.

Carolina at Dallas (-2.5)

With 26 seconds left and one timeout remaining, Tony Romo completed a one-yard pass to Dez Bryant to the Ravens 33. The clock ticked down to six seconds, before Dallas used its final timeout and Dan Bailey missed the game-winning field goal from 50+ yards out. Now that, that is just great clock management.

Cleveland (+3.5) at Indianapolis

Despite defeating the Bengals and picking up a win for the first time since November 2011, Cleveland's victory was immediately overshadowed by news of this guy last week.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

With interim coach Joe Vitt taking over the Saints in Week 8, let's appreciate the chance to pick against interim interim coach Aaron Kromer one more time.

Washington (+6.5) at New York Giants

I'm surprised this line is almost a touchdown even though everyone knows 1) The Giants play better on the road than at home and 2) Washington is 3-0 ATS in its last three against New York.

Baltimore (+6.5) at Houston

Being on the wrong end of both the largest deficit overcome in Monday Night Football and Thursday's situation in San Francisco is just too much for one blogger to take in a 72-hour span. Hopefully John Harbuagh atones for his brother's wrongs by staying within six points in Houston.

Green Bay (-5.5) at St. Louis

The critics have come out in full force after I officially dropped to .500 on the year, and after hopefully a strong performance this week, I'll have the following message for them when sitting down for my weekly interview with Michele Tafoya:


Arizona at Minnesota (-6.5)
Tennessee at Buffalo (-3.5)

Two picks that are more against the away team than they are for the home team, and two games that, with six teams on bye, have a lot of implications on whether I win or lose Week 7 in fantasy football.

New York Jets at New England (-10.5)

An angry Tom Brady and Bill Belichick returning home after blowing a 13-point 4th quarter lead in Seattle? Thankfully, this is the Jets problem to deal with and not mine.

Jacksonville (+4.5) at Oakland

After getting blown out in both weeks prior to their bye and with another blowout looming in Week 8 (at Green Bay), this is Jacksonville's best chance at keeping up its pace of one win a month.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Cincinnati

After making the playoffs last year, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals are on track for two straight average or below-average seasons, before Lewis saves his job with an unexpected playoff berth in 2014; a script we've seen play out before in Cincy.

Detroit at Chicago (-5.5)

Losing out on the Hail Mary in Seattle earlier this year and then with the comeback in San Diego last week, I'm pretty sure I'm due for a Charles Tillman interception Monday to stop Detroit's backdoor cover attempt you know is coming.

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October 11, 2012

NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 41-36          Last Week: 6-8    

Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Tennessee    

After watching him compile a 2.9 YPC average from afar over five weeks, Chris Johnson's fantasy owners will get their first live look at just how bad of a first/second round pick they made Thursday night in Tennessee. In their first (but not only) primetime appearance of the season, the Titans manage to get blown out for the fifth time in six games.

With midterms looming, my weekly schedule of watching games for 10 hours straight on Sunday will be altered as some semblance of studying must be done for them. Below are the picks for Week 6:

Kansas City at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Dallas (+3.5) at Baltimore
St. Louis at Miami (-3.5)

Detroit (+5.5) at Philadelphia
Oakland at Atlanta (-8.5)
Cincinnati (-2.5) at Cleveland

Indianapolis (+3.5) at New York Jets
Buffalo at Arizona (-5.5)
New England (-3.5) at Seattle

New York Giants (+5.5) at San Francisco
Minnesota (+2.5) at Washington
Green Bay (+5.5) at Houston
Denver at San Diego (-2.5)

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October 4, 2012

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 36-28          Last Week: 10-5          This Week: 1-0          

Arizona at St. Louis (+1.5)

Long a source of hacky jokes on this blog, the NFC West is off to a strong start in 2012 with no one below .500 after four weeks. Arizona falls from the ranks of the unbeaten tonight, and we applaud Kevin Kolb for somehow lasting until October before suffering his first loss.

Green Bay (-7.5) at Indianapolis

After missing plays at Seattle with the Hail Mary and vs. New Orleans on the Darren Sproles fumble, the referees should have a call (or 20) go Green Bay's way in Indianapolis.

Baltimore (-4.5) at Kansas City

A rested Ravens team going up against a quarterback soon to be replaced by Brady Quinn? Yes, please!

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

From Matthew Berry's Week 5 Love/Hate column: Vick "doesn't do well when he gets 5 or more rushers, he gets 5 or more rushers more than anyone else, and the Steelers use 5 or more rushers more than anyone else."

Miami at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Nothing like seeing "Cleveland, Washington, Jacksonville, Miami, Cleveland" on the schedule to bounce back from a disastrous Monday night opener.

Cleveland (+10.5) at New York Giants

The Browns have Brandon Weeden running the show, are without two receivers and will be missing Joe Haden. Still, the Giants will continue their trend (that makes no sense) of letting inferior teams hang with them at home.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Washington

With Oakland on bye, I will be treated to watching the Raheem Morris-led worst secondary in the NFL try and slow down Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones.

Seattle (+3.5) at Carolina

From Bill Simmons' Week 5 NFL picks column, a reader emailed The Sports Guy something I have wondered for quite some time now: Is Ron Rivera's "headset even plugged in? On every sideline shot of him I have yet to see him speak a single word." - Terrence, Rock Hill, SC

Buffalo at San Francisco (-49.5)  San Francisco (-9.5)

The only thing to monitor here will be whether or not the 49ers wait until the end of the first quarter to cover this spread.

Denver (+7.5) at New England

There's nothing better than watching Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off in the second game of a doubleheader day with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on the call. You hear me? Nothing!

Chicago (-4.5) at Jacksonville
Tennessee (+5.5) at Minnesota

Two road teams that I'm not really confident in, but such is life when making picks of all the week's games.

San Diego at New Orleans (-3.5)

I really can't put my finger on what is wrong with this Saints defense. It's almost as if they need some incentive to play better. Weird.

But lame, overplayed jokes aside, I think the Saints put it together for one week in the Superdome.

Houston (-7.5) at New York Jets

After being mostly seen in just the New York market through the first four weeks, the Jets incompetence will now be on display in front of the entire country come Monday night!


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