tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14920225598676996332024-03-13T19:33:21.116-04:00The Way I See ItTyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comBlogger77125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-51577025690614719132012-11-15T19:00:00.000-05:002012-11-18T01:30:32.800-05:00NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 79-68 Last Week: 7-7 This Week: 1-0</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Miami at <b>Buffalo (-1.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
There's bad, there's really bad and then there's me trying to pick these Thursday night games. Thankfully, the oddsmakers have given me a break with this layup of a pick.<br />
<br />
The rest:<br />
<br />
<b>Green Bay (-3.5) </b>at Detroit<br />
<b>Cleveland (+7.5) </b>at Dallas<br />
Arizona at <b>Atlanta (-10.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
New York Jets at<b> St. Louis (-3.5)</b><br />
<b>Jacksonville (+16.5) </b>at Houston<br />
<b>Philadelphia (+3.5) </b>at Washington<br />
<br />
<b>Cincinnati (-3.5) </b>at Kansas City<br />
<b>Tampa Bay (-1.5) </b>at Carolina<br />
New Orleans at <b>Oakland (+4.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>San Diego (+7.5) </b>at Denver<br />
Indianapolis at <b>New England (-9.5)</b><br />
<b>Baltimore (+3.5) </b>at Pittsburgh<br />
Chicago at <b>San Francisco (-5.5)</b>
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<br />Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-2726130951639970192012-11-08T20:03:00.003-05:002012-11-11T03:38:02.913-05:00NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread<br />
<b>Season: 71-62 Last Week: 9-5 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Jacksonville (+3.5) </b>at Indianapolis<br />
<br />
Jacksonville takes a week off from getting blown out by keeping it close during its only primetime game of the season against a Colts team in a terrible spot on the road.<br />
<br />
The rest:<br />
<br />
Oakland at <b>Baltimore (-7.5)</b><br />
<b>Detroit (-2.5) </b>at Minnesota<br />
<b>San Diego (+3.5) </b>at Tampa Bay<br />
<br />
<b>Tennessee (+6.5) </b>at Miami<br />
Atlanta at <b>New Orleans (+3.5)</b><br />
<b>Denver (-3.5) </b>at Carolina<br />
<br />
NY Giants at <b>Cincinnati (+4.5)</b><br />
<b>Buffalo (+11.5) </b>at New England<br />
NY Jets at <b>Seattle (-6.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Dallas at <b>Philadelphia (-2.5)</b><br />
St. Louis at <b>San Francisco (-11.5)</b><br />
Houston at <b>Chicago (-1.5)</b><br />
Kansas City at <b>Pittsburgh (-12.5)</b>
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<br />Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-22139560845862962812012-11-01T19:57:00.001-04:002012-11-04T03:02:45.641-05:00NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 62-57 Last Week: 9-5 This Week: 0-1 </b><br />
<br />
<b>Kansas City (+8.5) </b>at San Diego<br />
<br />
Seven games into the season, and the Chiefs have not held a lead this year. While we could never see such a streak duplicated, we also might never have a chance to grab 8.5 points against the Chargers until 2013.
<br />
<br />
The rest:<br />
Miami at <b>Indianapolis (+2.5)</b><br />
Buffalo at <b>Houston (-10.5)</b><br />
Arizona at <b>Green Bay (-10.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Baltimore (-3.5) </b>at Cleveland<br />
<b>Chicago (-3.5) </b>at Tennessee<br />
Denver at <b>Cincinnati (+3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Carolina (+3.5) </b>at Washington<br />
Detroit at <b>Jacksonville (+3.5)</b><br />
Minnesota at <b>Seattle (-5.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Tampa Bay at <b>Oakland (-1.5)</b><br />
<b>Pittsburgh (+3.5) </b>at New York Giants<br />
<b>Dallas (+4.5) </b>at Atlanta<br />
Philadelphia at <b>New Orleans (-3.5)</b><br />
<br />Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-16177177690181066842012-10-25T20:01:00.000-04:002012-10-28T04:21:57.097-04:00NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 53-52 Last Week: 7-6 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
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Tampa Bay at <b>Minnesota (-6.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
A crushing home loss to New Orleans followed by a Thursday night road game in Minnesota should be enough to ensure the Bucs lose by at least a touchdown against the Vikings.<br />
<br />
But why spend anymore time discussing the game when I can post this video of AU midfielder Colin Seigfreid celebrating his goal by giving the Stone Cold Stunner to AU grad and friend of the blog Zack Solomon?<br />
<br />
The only thing that could have been better is if a teammate dropped down to count the 1-2-3.<br />
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The rest:<br />
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Indianapolis at <b>Tennessee (-3.5)</b><br />
<b>Miami (+2.5) </b>at New York Jets<br />
<b>New England (-7.5) </b>vs. St. Louis (London)<br />
<br />
San Diego at <b>Cleveland (+3.5)</b><br />
<b>Carolina (+7.5) </b>at Chicago<br />
Atlanta at <b>Philadelphia (-2.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Seattle at <b>Detroit (-2.5)</b><br />
<b>Jacksonville (+13.5) </b>at Green Bay<br />
Washington at <b>Pittsburgh (-5.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Oakland (+1.5) </b>at Kansas City<br />
<b>New York Giants (-1.5) </b>at Dallas<br />
<b>New Orleans (+6.5) </b>at Denver<br />
San Francisco at <b>Arizona (+7.5) </b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-87624906458479956322012-10-18T17:15:00.000-04:002012-10-21T04:20:49.811-04:00NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 46-46 Last Week: 5-9 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Seattle at <b>San Francisco (-7.5)</b><br />
<br />
Going 11-17 over the past two weeks isn't the best way to begin October, especially after such a strong start to the season. I blame A-Rod.<br />
<br />
For tonight I'm backing San Francisco at home, thanks to the following stat from our A+ research team here at the blog: With Jim Harbaugh as coach, the 49ers have allowed 11 points combined in four games following a loss.
<br />
<br />
Carolina at <b>Dallas (-2.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
With 26 seconds left and one timeout remaining, Tony Romo completed a one-yard pass to Dez Bryant to the Ravens 33. The clock ticked down to six seconds, before Dallas used its final timeout and Dan Bailey missed the game-winning field goal from 50+ yards out. Now that, that is just great clock management.<br />
<br />
<b>Cleveland (+3.5) </b>at Indianapolis<br />
<br />
Despite defeating the Bengals and picking up a win for the first time since November 2011, Cleveland's victory was immediately overshadowed by news of <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"><a href="http://deadspin.com/5951804/heres-a-browns-fan-dunking-his-head-in-a-bucket-of-urine-for-450" target="_blank">this guy</a> </span>last week.<br />
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New Orleans at <b>Tampa Bay (+3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
With interim coach Joe Vitt taking over the Saints in Week 8, let's appreciate the chance to pick against interim interim coach Aaron Kromer one more time.<br />
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<b>Washington (+6.5) </b>at New York Giants<br />
<br />
I'm surprised this line is almost a touchdown even though everyone knows 1) The Giants play better on the road than at home and 2) Washington is 3-0 ATS in its last three against New York.<br />
<br />
<b>Baltimore (+6.5) </b>at Houston<br />
<br />
Being on the wrong end of both the largest deficit overcome in Monday Night Football and Thursday's situation in San Francisco is just too much for one blogger to take in a 72-hour span. Hopefully John Harbuagh atones for his brother's wrongs by staying within six points in Houston.<br />
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<b>Green Bay (-5.5) </b>at St. Louis<br />
<br />
The critics have come out in full force after I officially dropped to .500 on the year, and after hopefully a strong performance this week, I'll have the following message for them when sitting down for my weekly interview with Michele Tafoya:<br />
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Arizona at <b>Minnesota (-6.5)</b><br />
Tennessee at <b>Buffalo (-3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Two picks that are more against the away team than they are for the home team, and two games that, with six teams on bye, have a lot of implications on whether I win or lose Week 7 in fantasy football.<br />
<br />
New York Jets at <b>New England (-10.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
An angry Tom Brady and Bill Belichick returning home after blowing a 13-point 4th quarter lead in Seattle? Thankfully, this is the Jets problem to deal with and not mine.<br />
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<b>Jacksonville (+4.5) </b>at Oakland<br />
<br />
After getting blown out in both weeks prior to their bye and with another blowout looming in Week 8 (at Green Bay), this is Jacksonville's best chance at keeping up its pace of one win a month.<br />
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<b>Pittsburgh (-2.5) </b>at Cincinnati<br />
<br />
After making the playoffs last year, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals are on track for two straight average or below-average seasons, before Lewis saves his job with an unexpected playoff berth in 2014; a script we've seen play out before in Cincy.<br />
<br />
Detroit at <b>Chicago (-5.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>Losing out on the Hail Mary in Seattle earlier this year and then with the comeback in San Diego last week, I'm pretty sure I'm due for a Charles Tillman interception Monday to stop Detroit's backdoor cover attempt you know is coming.<br />
<b><br /></b>
Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-39889367091889438952012-10-11T19:49:00.001-04:002012-10-14T13:00:35.434-04:00NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 41-36 Last Week: 6-8 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Pittsburgh (-5.5)</b> at Tennessee<b> </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
After watching him compile a 2.9 YPC average from afar over five weeks, Chris Johnson's fantasy owners will get their first live look at just how bad of a first/second round pick they made Thursday night in Tennessee. In their first (but not only) primetime appearance of the season, the Titans manage to get blown out for the fifth time in six games.<br />
<br />
With midterms looming, my weekly schedule of watching games for 10 hours straight on Sunday will be altered as some semblance of studying must be done for them. Below are the picks for Week 6:<br />
<br />
Kansas City at <b>Tampa Bay (-3.5)</b><br />
<b>Dallas (+3.5) </b>at Baltimore<br />
St. Louis at <b>Miami (-3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Detroit (+5.5) </b>at Philadelphia<br />
Oakland at <b>Atlanta (-8.5)</b><br />
<b>Cincinnati (-2.5) </b>at Cleveland<br />
<br />
<b>Indianapolis (+3.5) </b>at New York Jets<br />
Buffalo at <b>Arizona (-5.5)</b><br />
<b>New England (-3.5) </b>at Seattle<br />
<br />
<b>New York Giants (+5.5) </b>at San Francisco<br />
<b>Minnesota (+2.5) </b>at Washington<br />
<b>Green Bay (+5.5) </b>at Houston<br />
Denver at <b>San Diego (-2.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-207902128977438812012-10-04T20:18:00.003-04:002012-10-07T01:50:57.479-04:00NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 36-28 Last Week: 10-5 This Week: 1-0 </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Arizona at <b>St. Louis (+1.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Long a source of hacky jokes on this blog, the NFC West is off to a strong start in 2012 with no one below .500 after four weeks. Arizona falls from the ranks of the unbeaten tonight, and we applaud Kevin Kolb for somehow lasting until October before suffering his first loss.
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Green Bay (-7.5) </b>at Indianapolis<br />
<br />
After missing plays at Seattle with the Hail Mary and vs. New Orleans on the Darren Sproles fumble, the referees should have a call (or 20) go Green Bay's way in Indianapolis.<br />
<br />
<b>Baltimore (-4.5) </b>at Kansas City<br />
<br />
A rested Ravens team going up against a quarterback soon to be replaced by Brady Quinn? Yes, please!<br />
<br />
Philadelphia at <b>Pittsburgh (-3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
From Matthew Berry's Week 5 Love/Hate <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=TMR121004" target="_blank">column</a>: Vick "doesn't do well when he gets 5 or more rushers, he gets 5 or more rushers more than anyone else, and the Steelers use 5 or more rushers more than anyone else."<br />
<br />
Miami at <b>Cincinnati (-4.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Nothing like seeing "Cleveland, Washington, Jacksonville, Miami, Cleveland" on the schedule to bounce back from a disastrous Monday night opener.<br />
<br />
<b>Cleveland (+10.5) </b>at New York Giants<br />
<br />
The Browns have Brandon Weeden running the show, are without two receivers and will be missing Joe Haden. Still, the Giants will continue their trend (that makes no sense) of letting inferior teams hang with them at home.<br />
<br />
<b>Atlanta (-3.5) </b>at Washington<br />
<br />
With Oakland on bye, I will be treated to watching the Raheem Morris-led worst secondary in the NFL try and slow down Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones.<br />
<br />
<b>Seattle (+3.5) </b>at Carolina<br />
<br />
From Bill Simmons' Week 5 NFL picks <a href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8465998/the-island-dr-simbeau" target="_blank">column</a>, a reader emailed The Sports Guy something I have wondered for quite some time now: Is Ron Rivera's "headset even plugged in? On every sideline shot of him I have yet to see him speak a single word." - Terrence, Rock Hill, SC<br />
<br />
Buffalo at <b><strike>San Francisco (-49.5) </strike> San Francisco (-9.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The only thing to monitor here will be whether or not the 49ers wait until the end of the first quarter to cover this spread.<br />
<br />
<b>Denver (+7.5) </b>at New England<br />
<br />
There's nothing better than watching Peyton Manning and Tom Brady square off in the second game of a doubleheader day with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on the call. You hear me? Nothing!<br />
<br />
<b>Chicago (-4.5) </b>at Jacksonville<br />
<b>Tennessee (+5.5) </b>at Minnesota<br />
<br />
Two road teams that I'm not really confident in, but such is life when making picks of all the week's games.<br />
<br />
San Diego at <b>New Orleans (-3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I really can't put my finger on what is wrong with this Saints defense. It's almost as if they need some incentive to play better. Weird.<br />
<br />
But lame, overplayed jokes aside, I think the Saints put it together for one week in the Superdome.<br />
<br />
<b>Houston (-7.5) </b>at New York Jets<br />
<br />
After being mostly seen in just the New York market through the first four weeks, the Jets incompetence will now be on display in front of the entire country come Monday night!<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-85711670342147303912012-09-27T20:09:00.001-04:002012-09-30T13:01:12.388-04:00NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 25-24 Last Week: 8-8 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Cleveland at <b>Baltimore (-13.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
An angry defense playing at home after having given up 54 points in its last two games? Thankfully this is Brandon Weeden's problem to deal with, not mine.<br />
<br />
And with the era of replacement referees coming to a close, below is my favorite call from the whole fiasco. Thank God this ends tonight.<br />
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After having to pick up a friend well past midnight at Union Station, getting basically no sleep, and then working the AU men's soccer and volleyball games Saturday (11 a.m. - 6:30 p.m.), Quick Picks it is for Week 4.<br />
<br />
<b>San Diego (-1.5) </b>at Kansas City<br />
<b>San Francisco (-4.5) </b>at New York Jets<br />
Carolina at <b>Atlanta (-7.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Tennessee (+12.5) </b>at Houston<br />
<b>Seattle (-1.5) </b>at St. Louis<br />
<b>New England (-3.5) </b>at Buffalo<br />
<br />
<b>Minnesota (+4.5) </b>at Detroit<br />
<b>Miami (+6.5) </b>at Arizona<br />
Oakland at <b>Denver (-6.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Cincinnati (-2.5) </b>at Jacksonville<br />
New Orleans at <b>Green Bay (-6.5)</b><br />
<b>Washington (+3.5) </b>at Tampa Bay<br />
<br />
<b>New York Giants (+2.5)</b> at Philadelphia<br />
<b>Chicago (+3.5)</b> at Dallas
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<br />Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-31817956390686878802012-09-20T19:56:00.000-04:002012-09-23T03:57:27.173-04:00NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 17-16</b> <b>Last Week: 8-8 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
New York Giants at <b>Carolina (+1.5)</b><br />
<br />
For the simple fact that I am going against my team, I deserve to drop to 0-3 on Thursday night games.<br />
<br />
Full picks will be posted prior to kickoff on Sunday.
<br />
<br />
Buffalo at <b>Cleveland (+3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
It was either Buffalo on the road, or Brandon Weeden returning home after posting a passer rating of 5.1 in Week 1. Buffalo: 3 Cleveland: 0<br />
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><b style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><b style="font-weight: bold;">Kansas City (+9.5) </b>at New Orleans</span></div>
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In a battle to see which team can hit rock bottom first, the Chiefs should be able to stay within 10 of the Saints in New Orleans.</div>
<br />
<b>Cincinnati (+4.5)</b> at Washington<br />
<br />
With Raheem Morris the defensive backs coach in Washington, I'm being conservative when I say I'm expecting no less than an 8-125-2 performance from A.J. Green. And nothing good can come from the fact that Morris was calling the defense in the 4th quarter last week in St. Louis.<br />
<br />
<b>Jacksonville (+2.5) </b>at Indianapolis<br />
<br />
My goodness. And we get to see these two square off once again (on Thursday Night Football, no less) come Week 10.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Tampa Bay (+7.5) </b>at Dallas<br />
<br />
Tampa Bay has now covered two straight spreads, and no reason to jump off them now when they're getting more than a touchdown at Dallas.<br />
<br />
<b style="font-weight: bold;">San Francisco (-7.5) </b>at Minnesota<b></b><br />
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It's always great on a Sunday when FOX doesn't have sound and NBC has no signal, as was the case last week for me, causing me to miss just how good the 49ers looked against Detroit.</div>
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Detroit at <b style="font-weight: bold;">Tennessee (+3.5)</b></div>
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<b><b><br /></b></b></div>
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While Tennessee has struggled to resemble a competent football team, it's also hard to be confident in the Lions after they narrowly beat the Rams and were manhandled (or so I'm told) in San Francisco last Sunday night.</div>
<br />
<b>New York Jets (-3.5)</b> at Miami<br />
St. Louis at <b>Chicago (-8.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Went back and forth on these games before realizing 1) Who will Ryan Tannehill be completing passes to? and 2) Who will Jay Cutler <i>not </i>be completing passes to against the Rams secondary?<br />
<br />
Philadelphia at <b>Arizona (+4.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
At this pace, Michael Vick is projected for the highly realistic possibility of throwing 48 interceptions while leading his team to a 16-0 record.<br />
<br />
Houston at <b>Denver (-.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Surprised this is essentially a pick, especially with Houston having played no one (Miami, at Jacksonville) and Denver having two tough games to start (Pittsburgh, at Atlanta).<br />
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<b>Pittsburgh (-4.5)</b> at Oakland<br />
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Carson Palmer. Against the Steelers defense. Let the hilariously bad play ensue! </div>
<br />
Atlanta at <b>San Diego (-3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Are we ready to live in a world where Norv Turner and the Chargers are 3-0 at the end of September? Yes! Yes we are!<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>New England (+3.5) </b>at Baltimore<br />
<br />
For the same reason I should have picked the Giants on Thursday: Whenever anyone counts out the Pats, they play their best. (And because the 3.5 points doesn't hurt either, of course).<br />
<br />
<b>Green Bay (-3.5) </b>at Seattle<br />
<br />
The Aaron Rodgers-Matt Flynn matchup didn't quite materialize, but a very intriguing way to end Week 3 action.<br />
<br />
<br />
Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-70538840708907075922012-09-13T20:08:00.003-04:002012-09-16T04:18:58.568-04:00NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 9-8 </b> <b> Last Week: 9-7 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Chicago (+6.5)</b> at Green Bay<br />
<br />
A little bit of a high spread for this rivalry game, if I may blog so myself.<br />
<br />
The referees follow up last week's disaster in Arizona by giving Chicago five timeouts in the second half, allowing the Bears to cover in Lambeau.<br />
<br />
The rest of the picks will be posted prior to kickoff on Sunday.<br />
<br />
Arizona at <b>New England (-13.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Kevin Kolb against Tom Brady in New England? Ahahahaha! Ahahahaha!<br />
<br />
<b>Cleveland (+9.5) </b>at Cincinnati<br />
<br />
Brandon Weeden will most likely be attempting 20 or so passes Sunday, some of which are bound to go complete. Let's just hope they're to the team <i>without</i> the black stripes on their orange helmets.<br />
<br />
<b>Kansas City (+3.5) </b>at Buffalo<br />
<br />
Considering Buffalo somehow managed to be down three touchdowns before it was even 2:00 p.m. last Sunday, I'll gladly take the points.<br />
<br />
<b>Houston (-7.5) </b>at Jacksonville<br />
<br />
On the road, in a dome, with less than two minutes left, Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville on a touchdown drive to momentarily take the lead last week in Minnesota. This actually happened!<br />
<br />
But as for trusting him two weeks in a row, I will pass on that.<br />
<br />
<b>Oakland (-2.5) </b>at Miami<br />
<br />
A furious comeback capped by Darren McFadden's 13-catch performance in the late Monday game moved me to 1-0 in my main fantasy league heading into Week 2. And I have Carson Palmer's obsession with the check down to thank for it!<br />
<br />
<b>Tampa Bay (+7.5) </b>at New York Giants<br />
<br />
I was one of the few who had the Bucs over Carolina last week, as everyone seemed to forget that Raheem Morris is no longer coaching this team, and I'll be one of the few taking the points against the Giants Sunday.<br />
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<b style="font-weight: bold;">Minnesota (-1.5) </b>at Indianapolis<b></b><br />
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I took Indy last week, forgetting that 1) They have no defense. 2) Their wide receivers other than Reggie Wayne include Donnie Avery, Kris Adams and LaVon Brazill and 3) They REALLY have no defense.</div>
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<b>Baltimore (+2.5) </b>at Philadelphia<br />
<b>New Orleans (-2.5) </b>at Carolina<br />
<br />
Rather than give a half-hearted explanation of why I like the Ravens and Saints, respectively, I'll just say that these were the two toughest games to pick from the 1:00 slate and leave it at that.<br />
<br />
Washington at <b>St. Louis (+3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
With the way the Saints defense looked, I think RG1 and RG2 could have thrown for 300 yards and two touchdowns in the Superdome. But a (Yes, don't laugh) improved Rams team will keep it close with Washington this Sunday.<br />
<br />
Dallas at <b>Seattle (+3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
To be expected: Braylon Edwards dropping a game-winning touchdown. Not to be expected: Kevin Kolb (Kevin Kolb!) engineering a game-winning drive to snatch away Seattle's first victory. Thankfully the Seahawks head home, where they should be able to play Dallas close.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Tennessee (+5.5) </b>at San Diego<br />
<br />
After their win in Oakland everyone loves the Chargers but Norv Turner is still the coach in San Diego right? He is? OK, just checking.<br />
<br />
New York Jets at <b>Pittsburgh (-6.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
After dropping to 0-1 on the week thanks to Jay Cutler, I could see this game playing out in a similar way to what we saw Thursday in Green Bay.<br />
<br />
Detroit at <b>San Francisco (-6.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>At this point, anything other than Jim Schwartz running across the field and clotheslining Jim Harbaugh during the post game handshake would be a HUGE disappointment.<br />
<br />
<b>Denver (+3.5) </b>at Atlanta.<br />
<br />
Because it's Peyton Manning, indoors and on Monday night, getting more than a field goal against the now Brent Grimes-less Falcons.<br />
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<br />Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-48550091379981635702012-09-05T19:45:00.004-04:002012-09-09T04:49:00.231-04:00NFL Week 1 Picks Against the SpreadSeason:<b> 0-1</b> This Week:<b> 0-1 </b>2011 Regular Season: <b>126-122-8</b><br />
2011 Playoffs: <b>9-2</b><br />
<br />
Casual fans and gambling addicts alike, we have finally made it: The start of the 2012 NFL regular season. Prepare yourself for 21 weeks of backdoor covers and confusing explanations/hilariously bad calls from replacement referees, among other things.<br />
<br />
The rest of the picks will be up before kickoff on Sunday.<br />
<br />
Dallas at <b>New York Giants (-3.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Because the defending Super Bowl champion never loses its season opener. Because the Cowboys have no offensive line. Because even though Dallas' improved its secondary, the thought of taking Tony Romo on the road against the Giants pass rush is something I'm going to pass on. And lastly, BECAUSE THE COWBOYS HAVE NO OFFENSIVE LINE.<br />
<br />
On an unrelated side note, mostly everyone I've talked to missed the return of the 'Junglebird' of U.S. Open fame during this past Saturday's Notre Dame-Navy game in Dublin, Ireland, so I figured I'd post the video below.<br />
<br />
I have no idea how he continues to get tickets to these events, but I was watching the game and then all of a sudden he appears out of nowhere and performs an Irish jig at the goal line.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/jkRUA5vpyhg?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
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<b>Indianapolis (+9.5)</b> at Chicago<br />
<br />
My hope is that with Reggie Wayne and the rest of the Colts receivers having balls spiral towards them instead of into the hands of defenders, they can keep this close in Chicago.<br />
<br />
Miami at <b>Houston (-10.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>...And the Ryan Tannehill-led Dolphins quickly become one of our favorite teams to pick against in 2012!<br />
<br />
<b>New England (-6.5) </b>at Tennessee<br />
<b>Washington (+9.5)</b> at New Orleans<br />
<br />
These will be the two 1 o'clock games I'll get here in D.C., and there's a good chance one of them will have the underdog furiously driving down the field in the final minute looking for our first backdoor cover of the year.<br />
<br />
<b>Philadelphia (-8.5)</b> at Cleveland<b></b><br />
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When was the last time picking a rookie quarterback who will be throwing to Greg Little and Mohamed Massaquoi and handing off to a running back who had surgery one month ago EVER worked out?</div>
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<b>Jacksonville (+4.5) </b>at Minnesota<br />
<br />
Two awful teams playing in a game no one cares about; A perfect time to talk fantasy football!<br />
<br />
After keeping A.J. Green and DeMarco Murray from a season ago, my opening day roster (12-team, PPR) shakes out as follows:<br />
<br />
QB- Michael Vick<br />
RBs- Murray, Darren McFadden<br />
WRs- Green, Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson<br />
TE- Antonio Gates<br />
K- Robbie Gould<br />
D/ST - Minnesota<br />
<br />
I'm telling you, ANYTHING other than 16-0 this year would be a disappointment.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Atlanta (-1.5) </b>at Kansas City<br />
<br />
This feels a lot like last year, when everyone loved Atlanta heading into their Week 1 opener at Chicago, and then the Bears won 30-12. And yet, I am being suckered in again.<br />
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<b style="font-weight: bold;">St. Louis (+9.5) </b>at Detroit<br />
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Hopefully bringing in Jeff Fisher can reduce the 20 and 30-point blowouts of last season down to single digits this year.</div>
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<b>Buffalo (+3.5)</b> at New York Jets<br />
<br />
Very hard to do but simply through their preseason play, the Jets moved from 6-point favorites to where they are now at 3.5.<br />
<br />
San Francisco at <b>Green Bay (-5.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Let me be the first to state that the 49ers passed on Aaron Rodgers in 2005 to select Alex Smith, and that now they'll be going head to head on Sunday.<br />
<br />
Carolina at <b>Tampa Bay (+2.5)</b><br />
Seattle at <b>Arizona (+2.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
One of these picks is bound to be terribly, terribly wrong.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Pittsburgh (+1.5)</b> at Denver<br />
<br />
What a great start to the Sunday night season, and great way to conclude a day of having not moved for 10 hours straight.<br />
<br />
Cincinnati at <b>Baltimore (-6.5)</b><br />
San Diego at <b>Oakland (+1.5)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Every year, I always mention how great it would be if we had two Monday Night Football games on a weekly basis. And then, I'm reminded what an awful idea it is when it's 1:45 a.m. and I'm watching the Raiders commit their 38th penalty of the night.<br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-17920659058127348152012-02-05T18:15:00.001-05:002012-02-05T18:15:34.465-05:00NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl<b>Season: 134-124-8</b> <b>Last Week: 2-0</b> <b>Playoffs: 8-2</b><br />
<br />
Rather than write a long Super Bowl post complete with picks on all the prop bets (as I had planned), I'm mailing in this blog post like the Tampa Bay Bucs mailed in the end of their season. (Fittingly, a lame joke to mark the final NFL Picks post of the season).<br />
<br />
<b>New York Giants (+3) </b>vs. New England Patriots<br />
<br />
Because sometime between your 73rd and 77th nacho tonight, you'll remember that the rule in toss-up games, always, is to take the points.<br />
<br />
Nothing is more important than a correct Super Bowl pick to build momentum for March Madness. So with that said:<br />
<br />
Go Giants. Go Football. Go Food. Go Prop Bets. Go Sports.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-54224516062726518312012-01-22T14:44:00.001-05:002012-01-22T14:44:40.914-05:00NFL Picks Against the Spread: Conference Championships<b>Season: 132-124-8 Last Week: 2-2 Playoffs: 6-2</b><br />
<br />
<b>Baltimore (+7.5) </b>at New England<br />
<br />
Because this spread is an overreaction line following New England's dominance of Denver and Baltimore's lackluster effort at home against Houston.<br />
<br />
Because Joe Flacco can't look as poor as he did against the Houston defense against the New England defense.<br />
<br />
Because this pick was made with me remembering Flacco's game-winning drive at Pittsburgh and not the performance he mailed in during the Sunday night game in San Diego.<br />
<br />
Because of Ray Rice.<br />
<br />
Because Baltimore doesn't believe it can keep it close, it believes it can actually win the game.<br />
<br />
Because I picked them in a playoff pool, and would be forced to root for them no matter what, so I might as well pick them here.<br />
<br />
Because of Ray Rice.<br />
<br />
Because if the Jets won last year, why can't the Ravens keep it within a touchdown this year?<br />
<br />
<b>New York Giants (+2.5) </b>at San Francisco<br />
<br />
Because it's a bad sign that despite forcing five turnovers, San Francisco was trailing with 45 seconds left.<br />
<br />
Because I want the already played out "Is Eli Elite?" storyline to continue for another three weeks.<br />
<br />
Because if the Patriots win earlier in the day, the Giants will win. It has to happen.<br />
<br />
Because it's scary to look at the stat line from San Francisco's wide receivers last week.<br />
<br />
Because, hopefully, this game won't need to come down to a Lawrence Tynes vs David Akers battle.<br />
<br />
Because the Giants have the better playmakers, and are riding the same wave they rode to Super Bowl 42.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/M12S1-TEJ9c?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>Enjoy the games.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-83015654205798201012012-01-14T16:29:00.002-05:002012-01-15T03:47:51.066-05:00NFL Picks Against the Spread: Divisional Round<b>Season: 130-122-8 Last Week: 4-0</b><br />
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New Orleans at <b>San Francisco (+3.5) </b><br />
<br />
While God will be focused on the game in New England later in the night, this could turn out to be the best matchup of the weekend.<br />
<br />
If this game were in New Orleans, the 49ers wouldn't have a chance. At all.<br />
<br />
But with it being in San Francisco, outdoors and on grass, I don't know who will win. But it will be close.<br />
<br />
<b>Denver (+13.5) </b>at New England<br />
<br />
I see the Broncos keeping it within two touchdowns as Tim Tebow threatens to single-handedly crash Twitter between the hours of 8 and 11 p.m. Saturday.<br />
<br />
Also, if you took the odds-on favorite in my <a href="http://tylertomea.blogspot.com/2012/01/nfl-picks-against-spread-wild-card.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">"Tim Tebow's first pass" prop bet last week</span></a>, you would have cashed. (Cashed easily, I might add). Did you see how off target that throw was!?!?<br />
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Houston at <b>Baltimore (-7.5)</b><br />
<br />
Giving more than a touchdown with Joe Flacco is always tough, especially in the playoffs.<br />
<br />
But if you do take the Texans, imagine how you'll be feeling around 2:30 p.m. Sunday, when Houston is down 13-0 on the road and T.J. Yates has completed five passes while throwing two interceptions at halftime.<br />
<br />
<b>New York Giants (+7.5) </b>at Green Bay<br />
<br />
The Giants return to Lambeau for the first time since knocking off the Packers in the 2007 playoffs for what will be a fun way to wrap up the divisional weekend.<br />
<br />
(I know, I know. They played there last season. But now's not the time to bring that debacle up. Positive thoughts!)<br />
<br />
And I'd also like to use this space to be the first person to let you know that this Giants team brings back memories of the team that won Super Bowl 42.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/z29VXN58CYA?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>Enjoy the games.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-74284971501903380902012-01-07T16:31:00.002-05:002012-01-07T16:33:15.987-05:00NFL Picks Against the Spread: Wild Card Weekend<b>Season: 126-122-8 Last Week: 8-7-1</b><br />
<br />
Cincinnati at <b>Houston (-3)</b><br />
<br />
With T.J. Yates just needing to exist in the two seconds between receiving the snap and handing it off to Arian Foster or Ben Tate, the Texans and their defense should be fine at home against the Bengals.<br />
<br />
And if Houston wins, it'll allow me to cash in the following bet I made back in Week 1.<br />
<br />
Will a red-headed quarterback win an NFL playoff game in 2011? <b>NO (-1600)</b><br />
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Detroit at <b>New Orleans (-10.5)</b><br />
<br />
Never go against Drew Brees at night in the Superdome. Never go against Drew Brees at night in the Superdome. Never go against Drew Brees at night in the Superdome.<br />
<br />
The best chance for the Lions would be if Ndamukong Suh injures Drew Brees, leading to the following prop bet being listed at sportsbooks.<br />
<br />
Which professional wrestling move will Ndamukong Suh use to try and hurt Drew Brees Saturday?<br />
A steel chair to the head (-110)<br />
<b>Hulk Hogan's leg drop (+250)</b><br />
A baseball bat to the knee (+400)<br />
The Undertaker's piledriver (+800)<br />
<br />
Atlanta at <b>New York Giants (-3)</b><br />
<br />
The Giants could lose this game, or win against Atlanta and beat the Packers in Green Bay, and I wouldn't be surprised either way. Here's to hoping Atlanta doesn't look too closely at what Washington did in Week 15 at the Meadowlands.<br />
<br />
Following a Giants win, who will Brandon Jacobs inevitably insult?<br />
Green Bay's fans (+250)<br />
Aaron Rodgers (+500)<br />
<b>The city of Green Bay (+650)</b><br />
The state of Wisconsin (+1400)<br />
<br />
Pittsburgh at <b>Denver (+8.5)</b><br />
<br />
Pittsburgh's last four games on the road:<br />
<br />
Win over the Bengals, 24-17<br />
Win over the Chiefs, 13-9 (Tyler Palko)<br />
Loss against the 49ers, 20-3<br />
Win over the Browns, 13-9 (Seneca Wallace)<br />
<br />
Denver always plays better as an underdog, and Pittsburgh has had trouble covering as a large favorite this season. And they'll have trouble covering Sunday.<br />
<br />
What will be the result of Tim Tebow's first pass?<br />
Complete (+200)<br />
<b>Incomplete (-150)</b><br />
Causes the people you're watching with to break out in laughter because of its inaccuracy (-300)<br />
<br />
Enjoy Wild Card Weekend.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-69863594012928085022012-01-01T04:54:00.002-05:002012-01-01T04:55:37.187-05:00NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 118-115-7 Last Week: 9-7 </b><br />
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<b>New York Jets (+3) </b>at Miami<br />
<br />
What's the biggest credit to Reggie Bush, you ask? After having zero impact the past five years, the words "Reggie Bush will miss Sunday's game" now have sort of an impact on who you end up picking.<br />
<br />
<b>Washington (+9) </b>at Philadelphia<br />
<br />
The Redskins will finish with at least 10 losses, the Wizards are winless, the Capitals sit in ninth in the Eastern Conference and the Nationals have never had a winning season. Washington D.C. sports, everybody!<br />
<br />
<b>San Francisco (-10.5) </b>at St. Louis<br />
<br />
How easy would it have been to fill out your NFC playoff bracket had Seattle defeated the 49ers last week? Insanely easy, I say! The Packers would have reached the Super Bowl by defeating the Saints (who, by virtue of the Seahawks victory, would become locks for an NFC Championship appearance following a home win over San Fran), with the only tough NFC game to pick being the 4/5 matchup.<br />
<br />
<b>Chicago (+1.5) </b>at Minnesota<br />
<br />
Sample headline: "Ponder clears concussion tests, expected to start for Peterson-less Vikings Sunday." And it's <i>Chicago getting</i> the point and a half?!?!<br />
<br />
<b>Detroit (-3.5) </b>at Green Bay<br />
<b>Tampa Bay (+11.5) </b>at Atlanta<br />
<br />
Detroit beats up on various Green Bay backups, then proceeds to beat up on <i>their </i>backups en route to an easy win that prevents the Lions from traveling to New Orleans.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, in Atlanta, the "Yes, isn't it obvious we've completely mailed in the season?" Bucs stay within 11 of the Falcons as Raheem Morris is handed a pink slip at the two-minute warning.<br />
<br />
<b>Carolina (+8.5) </b>at New Orleans<br />
<br />
To commemorate Cam Newton covering point spreads for me all year, I almost feel obligated to take him at New Orleans in the season finale. It's the least I can do.<br />
<br />
Pittsburgh at <b>Cleveland (+7)</b><br />
<br />
I don't know how much Ben Roethlisberger will be playing. You don't know how much Ben Roethlisberger will be playing. Rather than pretend to know how effective he'll be and explain why in a 100-word blurb, let's just leave it at that.<br />
<br />
<b>Indianapolis (+3.5) </b>at Jacksonville<br />
<br />
You're a Rams fan. You need the Colts to defeat an NFL team Sunday. If you could choose any quarterback to go against the Colts (other than Tyler Palko), who would it be? Of course it would be Blaine Gabbert!<br />
<br />
<b>Tennessee (-2) </b>at Houston<br />
<br />
There could be a Jake Delhomme sighting in Houston tomorrow. I repeat: JAKE DELHOMME.<br />
<br />
<b>Baltimore (-2) </b>at Cincinnati<br />
<br />
A lot of people are saying they like the Bengals this week. To those people, two things: 1.) How about you say that to my face? and 2.) Wait a second, those same Bengals who were one Early Doucet trip away from blowing a 23-0 lead to Arizona with their playoff lives on the line?<br />
<br />
Buffalo at <b>New England (-10.5)</b><br />
<br />
You sign guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick to a $59 million extension for moments like these, when everyone wonders whether or not he'll lead a drive that results in a backdoor cover for Buffalo in the game's final two minutes.<br />
<br />
<b>Kansas City (+3.5) </b>at Denver<br />
<b>San Diego (+3) </b>at Oakland<br />
<br />
Kyle Orton starting for two teams in the division. Tebow. The Chiefs seeing all of their best players get injured. Tyler Palko. Tebow. Oakland setting the penalties record. The Raiders <s>getting robbed for </s>trading for Carson Palmer. Norv Turner's last hurrah. Tebow.<br />
<br />
A season of intrigue in the AFC West!<br />
<br />
<b>Seattle (+3) </b>at Arizona<br />
<br />
One team will reach eight wins, and everyone will wonder how exactly that happened when looking back at the 2011 standings.<br />
<br />
Dallas at <b>New York Giants (-3)</b><br />
<br />
Primetime matchup with the NFC East title on the line and best of all, I'll be in attendance! With that said, I leave you with this. Enjoy Week 17.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/4ab2pnlWkd4?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-67732715037673157982011-12-24T05:34:00.002-05:002011-12-24T05:39:44.877-05:00NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 109-109-7 Last Week: 10-5-1 This Week: 0-1 </b><br />
<br />
Cleveland at <b><s>Baltimore (-42.5)</s> Baltimore (-12.5)</b><br />
<br />
After a week of hearing how they rolled over in San Diego, the Ravens receive the perfect team to get them back on the right track: The 2011 Cleveland Browns! And no need to fear the Browns players wanting to exact revenge for Art Modell moving the team from Cleveland to Baltimore in the mid-1990s, most of the current Browns were in their pre-teen years then.<br />
<br />
<b>Minnesota (+6.5) </b>at Washington<br />
<br />
Thank God I'm still not in Washington, D.C. to watch this game, as there's a good chance I would have jumped out my third floor window by the third quarter of this fiasco.<b> </b><br />
<br />
Tampa Bay at <b>Carolina (-7.5)</b><br />
<br />
Giving more than a touchdown is a lot to ask of a team that is 5-9 I thought, until I remembered watching the Bucs completely mail it in Saturday against Dallas. Cam Newton fantasy owners, rejoice!<br />
<br />
Denver at <b>Buffalo (+3.5)</b><br />
<br />
Rather than spend 100 words trying to explain to you why I like Buffalo, I'll just hope this pick doesn't look bad by the first TV timeout.<br />
<br />
Jacksonville at <b>Tennessee (-7.5)</b><br />
<br />
Jacksonville's quarterback: Blaine Gabbert<br />
The receivers Blaine Gabbert will be throwing to: Some combination of Taylor Price, Chastin West and Colin Cloherty. After this inevitably bad performance, I predict 65 Wildcat snaps next weekend for Maurice Jones-Drew.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>New York Giants (+3) </b>at New York Jets</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">With most of my friends on Facebook either being Jets or Giants fans, I'm looking forward to the bevy of insults being thrown back and forth between the hours of 1 and 4 p.m. Saturday.</div><br />
<br />
<b>Oakland (+2) </b>at Kansas City<br />
<br />
Let's get statistical for a moment, shall we?<br />
---> The Raiders have won four straight games at Kansas City.<br />
---> Oakland is 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight at Arrowhead.<br />
Long field goals and booming punts all afternoon!<br />
<br />
<b>Miami (+10.5) </b>at New England<br />
<br />
Cousin Sal made a great point in his Grantland blog: With the way Reggie Bush has been playing these last few games, imagine how much of a psychological boost he will get with this game being played on a Saturday. The New England defense will look like Washington State, or some other inferior Pac-12 foe.<br />
<br />
<b>St. Louis (+16.5) </b>at Pittsburgh<br />
<br />
I see Pittsburgh running the ball. I see Pittsburgh continuing to run the ball. I see Pittsburgh not attempting a pass that travels 40 yards in the air. All of this adds up to a 17-3 game that could be over while every other game is at halftime.<br />
<br />
<b>Arizona (+4.5) </b>at Cincinnati<br />
<br />
With a win here, Arizona guarantees itself of a non-losing season. I don't know how that ended up happening either.<br />
<br />
<b>San Diego (+2.5) </b>at Detroit<br />
San Francisco at <b>Seattle (+2.5)</b><br />
<b>Philadelphia (+1.5) </b>at Dallas<br />
<br />
Here's where things get shaky, with my family arriving at my house at 4:30 for Christmas Eve. (Clearly, there was a thought process behind that time. By 4:30 all of the 1 p.m. games will be completed, even if anything goes to overtime). So, I'll have to find some way around spending time with my family in order to watch these three games. (I already felt guilty just writing that sentence).<br />
<br />
<b>Chicago (+13) </b>at Green Bay<br />
<br />
The Bears have opted to go with a McCown brother this Sunday in Green Bay. Which one? I don't know. But if Seattle wins, Green Bay will have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And McCown obviously can't be worse than Caleb Hanie, who I'll remember for throwing the ball DIRECTLY AT Seattle's Red Bryant last week.<br />
<br />
Atlanta at <b>New Orleans (-6.5)</b><br />
<br />
Always taking Drew Brees at home at night is nearing its place among one of the steadfast rules when it comes to picking these games.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-79336615323353921962011-12-18T04:16:00.001-05:002011-12-18T04:17:16.590-05:00NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 100-104-6 Last Week: 8-8 This Week: 1-1 </b>(Completely forgot Tampa Bay had already mailed in its 2011 season two weeks ago)<br />
<br />
<b>Carolina (+6.5) </b>at Houston<br />
<br />
Brutal start to the bowl season, going 1-2 through the first three games (straight-up picks, no confidence points). Utah State gave up a 23-10 lead in the middle game, while San Diego State shows us how to lose a game in 50 seconds in the nightcap.<br />
<br />
It's only fair then that, with his team trailing by 13 points with 35 seconds remaining, Cam Newton trots into the endzone untouched to make amends for yesterday's disaster.<br />
<br />
Washington at <b>New York Giants (-7)</b><br />
<br />
No Osi? Possibly no Justin Tuck? No problem! (OK, slight problem, but it sounded better if I wrote it that way). Washington coming into the Meadowlands sets up a perfect stress free game for Giants fans after Miles Austin and the Cowboys Stadium lights kept their season alive last week.<br />
<br />
<b>Green Bay (-14) </b>at Kansas City<br />
<br />
This could be the last opportunity to pick the Packers at full strength before the playoffs come around. And then I ask you this: If Kyle Orton couldn't consistently throw properly with 10 good fingers, how is he going to do it with nine?<br />
<br />
<b>New Orleans (-7) </b>at Minnesota<br />
<br />
When a high-powered offense comes into Minnesota, and reports surface during the week that a horrible Vikings secondary has been ignoring defensive play calls this season, I tend to side with the high-powered offense.<br />
<br />
<b>Seattle (+3.5) </b>at Chicago<br />
<br />
My suggestion: Watch any and all of Devin Hester's punt returns, then immediately switch this game off before either offense takes the field. Chicago: 3, Seattle: 0<br />
<br />
<b>Tennessee (-6.5) </b>at Indianapolis<br />
<br />
Two inspired 4th quarter efforts in recent weeks by Indianapolis. The Colts trailed 31-3 at New England and lost 31-24, then scored a touchdown <i>on the last play of the game</i> to cover last week in Baltimore. There's no way Indianapolis gets up for this week's<s> game </s>4th quarter though.<br />
<br />
<b>Cincinnati (-6.5) </b>at St. Louis<br />
<br />
When I wrote last week to take the Bengals against the Texans because this isn't your typical Cincinnati team filled with ex-convicts and felons, I completely forgot Pacman Jones was on the team! How could I!?!? Of course, Pacman's penalty essentially cost Cincy the victory. But no worries in this game, as 10 boneheaded plays from the Pacman can't make up for the Rams' overall incompetence.<br />
<br />
<b>Miami (-1.5) </b>at Buffalo<br />
<br />
This line might seem a little off until you remember Buffalo already buried itself at 1:00 p.m. EST on Nov. 13 in Dallas.<br />
<br />
<b>Detroit (-1) </b>at Oakland<br />
<br />
All we'll need is Kevin Smith's ankles to hold up for three quarters here, and we should be good. Also, the following prop needs to be listed in some sportsbook somewhere (if it's not already): Will there be a penalty on the kickoff? YES (+270) NO (-230) OFFSETTING PENALTIES (+1200).<br />
<br />
<b>Cleveland (+7) </b>at Arizona<br />
<br />
Moving on...<br />
<br />
<b>New England (-6) </b>at Denver<br />
<br />
Similar to the well-known rule of never taking Dallas in Arizona is the rule of never taking Tom Brady in Denver. But that ruled applied at a time when Denver's receivers were catching footballs that were actually spiraling towards them.<br />
<br />
New York Jets at <b>Philadelphia (-2.5)</b><br />
Baltimore at <b>San Diego (+2.5)</b><br />
<br />
These games can go one of two ways, and we'll know pretty early on: Either both Philly and San Diego fight for 60 minutes and put forth inspired efforts, or they take a cue from Tampa Bay on Saturday and mail it in after the first commercial break. I'm hoping (praying?) for the former, and not the latter.<br />
<br />
<b>Pittsburgh (+1.5) </b>at San Francisco<br />
<br />
It looks like Ben Roethlisberger will play, and Roethlisberger on one leg, somehow, is still 75 percent better than Alex Smith on two.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-62778490613032861432011-12-11T04:27:00.001-05:002011-12-11T04:29:20.471-05:00NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 91-96-6 Last Week: 8-8 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<br />
Houston at <b>Cincinnati (-3)</b><br />
<br />
If you're thinking about jumping off the Bengals after their 35-7 loss at Pittsburgh, now's not the time. Remember, this isn't your typical Cincinnati team filled with ex-convicts and felons, and may put every defender in the box against the Andre Johnson-less Texans.<br />
<br />
Kansas City at <b>New York Jets (-10)</b><br />
<br />
Despite Tyler Palko's suckiness being well-known, he has managed to cover two of the three games he's started; A modern Christmas miracle! But the run ends at the Meadowlands, where Palko's inability to complete another Hail Mary voids the Chiefs of any semblance of offense.<br />
<br />
Minnesota at <b>Detroit (-9.5)</b><br />
<br />
Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson enter this game as questionable for the Vikes. You know who else is questionable? The rest of Minnesota's 53-man roster! Detroit mixes in touchdowns with some leg drops to various Minnesota offensive linemen for the cover.<br />
<br />
<b>Tampa Bay (-2) </b>at<b> </b>Jacksonville<br />
<br />
In lieu of talking about this awful game, let's examine my first round fantasy football matchup in my main league, shall we. (I understand how annoying it is to listen to someone talk about fantasy football, much less write about it. So if you want to skip this, by all means, feel free).<br />
<br />
I'll be going with: Eli, Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, DeMarco Murray, Gore, Witten, A.J. Green, Matt Bryant and the Denver defense.<br />
<br />
I'll be going up against: Roethlisberger, Calvin Johnson, Lance Moore, Mendenhall, Kevin Smith (or Maurice Morris), Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Nick Novak and the Green Bay defense.<br />
<br />
Winning this week (and the two weeks that follow) will require a tiny bit of luck but a LARGE amount of skill.<br />
<br />
<b>Philadelphia (+3) </b>at Miami<br />
<br />
Everything about Miami has to come crashing down at some point, right? What happened to the Dolphins' home-field disadvantage? Where is that team that blew a 15-0 late lead to Denver at home? Where is it!?!<br />
<br />
<b>New Orleans (-3.5) </b>at Tennessee<br />
<br />
The Titans are the popular upset pick this week. But I don't want to be the guy hoping for Tennessee to cover when I realize "Wait, who is Matt Hasselbeck throwing to again?" (The answer is some form of Jared Cook, Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins).<br />
<br />
<b>New England (-8) </b>at Washington<br />
<br />
No need to over think this one and wonder why this line is so low, I took care of that already. Instead, look at this as an early Christmas gift from the bookies and cash in as much as you can.<br />
<br />
Indianapolis at <b>Baltimore (-16.5)</b><br />
<br />
The plan here is to not watch a minute of this game until the last five minutes, when Indianapolis will be down 23 and driving in hopes of executing its second consecutive backdoor cover.<br />
<br />
<b>Atlanta (-3) </b>at Carolina<br />
<br />
Atlanta continues its season-long process of losing to the good teams on its schedule and defeating the average to bad teams en route to its definite first round loss come January.<br />
<br />
<b>Chicago (+3.5) </b>at Denver<br />
<br />
Am I the only one siding with Caleb Hanie instead of Tim Tebow this weekend? I am? OK, just checking.<br />
<br />
<b>San Francisco (-4) </b>at Arizona<br />
<br />
The longstanding rule of taking Arizona at home against Dallas (and the Cards not only covering, but winning) has pushed this spread down to four. I'll take the rock solid 49ers against the skittish Kevin Kolb, thank you very much.<br />
<br />
Buffalo at <b>San Diego (-6.5)</b><br />
<br />
After starting off 4-1, the Bills are now set to continue getting blown out by various teams over the remainder of their schedule, with the trend continuing Sunday at San Diego.<br />
<br />
<b>Oakland (+12) </b>at Green Bay<br />
<br />
Deep punts and long field goals. Deep punts and long field goals. Deep punts and long field goals.<br />
<br />
<b>New York Giants (+3.5) </b>at Dallas<br />
<br />
If ever there were a game where the home team should be favored by three (thereby signaling the teams as equal), it would be this one. Dallas blew a win in Arizona that would have allowed them to clinch the NFC East in this game, while the Giants went toe-to-toe with Green Bay and the Giants are getting an extra half point? Take the Giants and watch as Eli advances me into the fantasy semifinals.<br />
<br />
St. Louis at <b>Seattle (-6.5)</b><br />
<br />
Instead of a good game to watch while I inevitably procrastinate studying for my finals, I get stuck with this. What the *%&$!Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-44036215850235681212011-12-04T13:00:00.001-05:002011-12-04T13:01:05.451-05:00NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 83-88-6</b> <b>Last Week: 8-8</b> <b>This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
Indianapolis at <b>New England (-20.5)</b><br />
<br />
Nope, this is not a misprint. Fortunately for us Patriots pickers, we only have to give less than three touchdowns, a full 10 points below where this spread should have been.<br />
<br />
<b>Tennessee (+1.5) </b>at Buffalo<br />
<b>Atlanta (-2.5) </b>at Houston<br />
<br />
Big week for the AFC South. If the Titans get this game in Buffalo, they'll be 9-6 (vs. NO, @ Indy, vs. JAC) heading into Houston in Week 17.<br />
If the Texans win against Atlanta, they could be 11-4 (@ CIN, vs. CAR, @ Indy), make their Week 17 matchup against the Titans meaningless and in the process relieve their fans from the torture they feel around this time each year.<br />
<br />
<b>Carolina (+3) </b>at Tampa Bay<br />
<br />
Excuse me while I go pray to Tim Tebow's God that a few of my fantasy football starters match up against these defenses in the fantasy playoffs.<br />
<br />
Kansas City at <b>Chicago (-7)</b><br />
<br />
You: That's a lot of points to be laying with Caleb Hanie in his second start of the season.<br />
Me: Did you see Tyler Palko last Sunday night? Did you?!?<br />
<br />
<b>Denver (+1.5) </b>at Minnesota<br />
<br />
This has all the makings of a trap game: The Broncos coming in having won four straight, fourth game in five weeks on the road, the inability for their quarterback to complete the forward pass. Until you realize that the Vikings completely suck.<br />
<br />
<b>Oakland (+3) </b>at Miami<br />
<br />
I know, I know, the Raiders traveling across the country to play a feisty Dolphins team could turn out horribly by 3:00 p.m. Sunday afternoon. But think of Matt Moore having to go 85-yards each drive after Shane Lechler's punts and the Raiders only needing to move the ball to Miami's 40 for Sebastian Janikowski. (Yes, I am basing this pick completely on field goal kicking and punting).<br />
<br />
<b>Cincinnati (+7)</b> at Pittsburgh<br />
<br />
The Bengals have been good to me all year, starting all the way back with their (then) Week 1 upset at Cleveland straight through the rest of the season.<br />
<br />
New York Jets at <b>Washington (+3.5)</b><br />
<br />
Just when you say it's time for Rex Grossman to completely implode, I say no! One more good performance from Rex keeps the Redskins close with the Jets, as he waits until next week for his three-interception game.<br />
<br />
<b>Baltimore (-6.5)</b> at Cleveland<br />
St. Louis at <b>San Francisco (-13.5)</b><br />
<br />
The Browns and Rams; two of my favorite teams to pick against in 2011!<br />
<br />
<b>Arizona (+4.5) </b>at Dallas<br />
<br />
There are some weird, unexplainable things when it comes to picking games against the spread. One of those is that whenever Dallas plays at Arizona, you take the Cardinals. Don't ask why, just do it.<br />
<br />
<b>Green Bay (-6)</b> at New York Giants<br />
<br />
This being a desperation game for the Giants does nothing in terms of helping them prepare for an offense that has given them all kinds of trouble in the past.<br />
<br />
Detroit at <b>New Orleans (-9)</b><br />
<br />
Another night contest against a team with no running game, another Saints blowout by midway through the third quarter!<br />
<br />
<b>San Diego (-3)</b> at Jacksonville<br />
<br />
There really is nothing better than seeing Jacksonville on Monday night for the second time this season. You hear me? Nothing better! (I know, corny attempt at a joke. But I had to thrown in the obligatory 'I can't believe the Jags are on Monday night again comment).Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-4954103097174061412011-11-27T03:44:00.009-05:002011-11-27T04:08:43.856-05:00NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread<div></div><div><b>Season: 76-81-6 Last Week: 5-7-2 This Week: 1-2</b></div><br />
<div><b><div style="font-weight: normal;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Buffalo at <b>New York Jets (-8.5)</b></div></div><div style="font-weight: normal;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><br />
</b></div></div><div style="font-weight: normal;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">An angry Jets defense following a tough Thursday night loss at Denver. Thankfully, that's Ryan Fitzpatrick's problem to deal with, and not mine. </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">And even Isiah Thomas wouldn't have rewarded Fitzpatrick with a contract extension seven weeks into the season. (You thought I would end this blurb without taking a shot at the Fitzpatrick contract? No chance!).</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Minnesota at <b>Atlanta (-9.5)</b></div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><br />
</b></div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Christian Ponder, Toby Gerhart and a less-than-100 percent Percy Harvin: Perfect for covering a spread like this in college, but not so much in the Georgia Dome against an Atlanta team getting back Julio Jones.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Cleveland (+7.5) </b>at Cincinnati </div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Speaking of Julio Jones, wouldn't he look great right now in a Browns uniform? An electric receiver with big-play capability is just what this franchise needs. Wait a second, you're telling me they had the chance to draft him, and then traded out of the spot? What the #$%^&!!! </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">(Anyway, how ridiculous does that Peyton Hillis Madden cover look? Very ridiculous, I say).</div></div><div></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></div></div></b></div><div><br />
<b>Houston (-3.5) </b>at Jacksonville</div><div></div><div><br />
The fact that Matt Leinart is making his first career start for Houston may be enough to make you lean towards Jacksonville. Until of course, you remember that Blaine Gabbert is really, really bad at playing quarterback.<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Chicago (+3.5) </b>at Oakland</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">I love this pick as much as you can love a pick in which Caleb Haine will be your starting quarterback. But without Jay Cutler, the Bears defense puts forth an inspired effort while Carson Palmer puts forth a Palmerian effort.</div><br />
<div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Arizona (+3) </b>at St. Louis</div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Thankfully, this game is being played at 1 p.m., so its overall suckiness will be hidden among the six other early-afternoon games. </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Washington at <b>Seattle (-3.5)</b></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">This game could go one of two ways: Rex Grossman and the Redskins gave their all in last Sunday's game against the Cowboys, and head out to the Great Northwest to get slaughtered in front of a raucous home crowd. Or, the Seahawks play like they did against the Bengals earlier this season at home, and this game is close or the Redskins pull out the win. Whichever way this game goes, I don't think anyone cares (except, of course, for those picking said game).</div></div></div><div></div><div><br />
<b>Carolina (-3.5) </b>at Indianapolis</div><div><b>Tampa Bay (+3.5) </b>at Tennessee</div><div><br />
</div><div>Carolina and Tennessee were involved in two games last week that make us remember how fun it is to <s>bet on NFL games</s> pick games against the spread for fun.</div><div><br />
</div><div>Carolina at Detroit: The Panthers took a 24-7 lead in the 2nd quarter, and were up 27-14 at halftime. With less than five minutes to go, they scored to tie the game at 35 (putting them up 42.5-35 including the spread.) Re-read that sentence again. Somehow, the Panthers still managed to not cover.</div><div><br />
</div><div>Tennessee at Atlanta: The Falcons took a 23-3 lead with three minutes left in the third quarter following a Matt Bryant short field goal. What followed was a Jake Locker 40-yard touchdown pass, a Michael Turner fumble at the Titans' 7-yard line and an improbable Tennesee conversion on 4th-and-17 that led to a 23-17 final and a push. </div><div></div><div><br />
New England at <b>Philadelphia (+3.5)</b><br />
<br />
A pick made strictly from a who needs the game more standpoint. Even after the Jets dismantle the Bills earlier in the day, a New England loss keeps them two games up on the Jets with this remaining schedule: Indy, @ Denver, @ Washington, Miami and Buffalo. Tough to do two weeks in a row, but the Eagles post another solid showing in an underdog role at home. (And how high will next week's spread be for Colts-Patriots in New England?!?)<br />
<br />
<b>Denver (+6.5) </b>at San Diego<br />
<br />
With a win here and an Oakland home loss to Chicago, a quarterback that is incapable of figuring out the forward pass will be leading a team atop the AFC West in the NFL in 2011.</div><div><br />
Kansas City at <b>Pittsburgh (-10.5)</b><br />
<br />
Another night game, another week of Tyler Palko in primetime!<br />
<br />
New York Giants at <b>New Orleans (-7)</b><br />
<br />
No team has been more unlucky than the Giants when it comes to their two intraconference games on this year's schedule. By finishing 2nd in the NFC East last season, they get the 2nd place team in the NFC South at one of the league's toughest venues, and then they're home to the 2nd place team in the NFC North that hasn't lost since Week 15 in 2010.</div><div><br />
</div><div><b><br />
</b></div><div><br />
</div>Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-67721904878493295832011-11-20T13:01:00.001-05:002011-11-20T13:02:07.886-05:00NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 70-73-4 Last Week: 7-9 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
<br />
<b>Dallas (-7.5) </b>at Washington<br />
<br />
Week 11 already. It goes by too fast. Despite starting off 3-1 this season, the Redskins have returned to their Redskinian ways by losing their last five in a row, and that will continue at a FedEx Field filled with Dallas fans Sunday.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Tampa Bay at <b>Green Bay (-14)</b></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The Bucs continue their quest to get blown out by at least five teams this year when their defense takes on Aaron Rodgers. (Although it was around this time that the '07 Patriots began to slow down).</div><br />
<br />
<b>Buffalo (+2) </b>at Miami<br />
<br />
Much to the chagrin of Dolphins fans, Miami has won two straight and effectively taken itself out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, leading many to believe it could be the first time in history a fanbase has called for its coach to be fired after winning games.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Oakland (pick) </b>at Minnesota</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">I think I've picked Oakland more times this year than in the past three years combined, and despite the obvious signs of a trap game, I'll (very reluctantly) take the Raiders again.</div><br />
<br />
<b>Carolina (+7) </b>at Detroit<br />
<br />
Two covering machines that haven't been getting it done as the season has wore on. After both teams started 5-0 against the spread, the Lions and Panthers are just 1-3 in their last four. (Sad that it has come to looking at teams' record against the spread rather than their <i>actual record).</i><br />
<br />
<b>Jacksonville (+1) </b>at Cleveland<br />
<br />
You would think that in a week with the four NFC West teams playing each other, the worst game of the week would involve those teams. But Cleveland has surpassed the NFC West in terms of general suckiness and unwatchableness this season.<br />
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<b>Cincinnati (+7)</b> at Baltimore<br />
<br />
One week after leading a game-winning late drive at Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco reminds you that one of the rules in the NFL is never to trust him, and he proved that point last week in Seattle.<br />
<br />
Arizona at <b>San Francisco (-9.5)</b><br />
Seattle at <b>St. Louis (-2.5)</b><br />
<br />
NFC West: Tyler, you've been taking a lot of shots at our division this year, did you see what we did last week?<br />
Tyler: (Looks down)<br />
NFC West: All four of our teams won on Sunday. You hear me? All four teams!!<br />
Tyler: (Searching for joke about the division).<br />
<br />
San Diego at <b>Chicago (-3.5)</b><br />
<br />
San Diego heading to Soldier Field without its offensive line and a soft defense is usually not a good idea. The only thing stopping this cover is a classic Jay Cutler interception-returned-for-touchdown game.<br />
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<b>Tennessee (+6)</b> at Atlanta<br />
<br />
One of the toughest teams to figure out this year is Tennessee, which is why I'll opt not to spend this 75-word blurb trying to figure them out.<br />
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<b>Philadelphia (+6)</b> at New York Giants<br />
<br />
After last season's game, the Giants would want nothing more than to drive a stake through the heart of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. But the Giants haven't covered these types of spreads all year, and the Eagles should get up for this one game.<br />
<br />
Kansas City at <b>New England (-14.5)</b><br />
<br />
Two words: Tyler Palko. Some more words: Another Monday night, another uninteresting game.<br />
<i><br />
</i>Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-44241539681764278702011-11-13T12:59:00.001-05:002011-11-13T13:00:04.847-05:00NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 63-64-4 Last Week: 7-7 This Week: 0-1</b><br />
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<b>Pittsburgh (-3.5) </b>at Cincinnati<br />
<br />
Andy Dalton has had enough games against the Buffalo's, Seattle's and Indianapolis' of the world en route to putting together one of the more unlikely eight-game stretches in the NFL. But luckily for me, facing an angry Pittsburgh defense after last week is his problem, not mine.<br />
<br />
Denver at <b>Kansas City (-3)</b><br />
<br />
We'll find out if the Chiefs are the team that lost their first two games by a combined 79 points, shutout Oakland on the road and defeated San Diego on Monday night, or a classic AFC West team where everyone has no clue what's going to happen from week to week.<br />
<br />
Indianapolis at <b>Jacksonville (-3)</b><br />
<br />
Winnable game for Indianapolis, and at this point in the season, winnable games are the last thing Colts fans want to see.<br />
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<b>Buffalo (+5.5)</b> at Dallas<br />
<br />
The Buffalo defense can't stop anyone. At all. Which is why this game sets up perfectly for a classic Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass with 40 seconds left to backdoor cover the spread.<br />
<br />
<b>Tampa Bay (+3.5) </b>at Houston<br />
<br />
Out-of-conference game on the road after three straight convincing wins against a team that needs a victory to stay in contention in the NFC. This is the annual, "Just when you think the Texans are really good, they remind you their the Texans with a mind-boggling loss" game.<br />
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Tennessee at <b>Carolina (-3.5)</b><br />
<br />
The chances Tennessee had to compete for an AFC playoff berth this year were lost when 1.) Kenny Britt was lost for the year. 2.) They blew a 17-7 halftime lead to Cincy at home. and 3.) Chris Johnson enters each game as either the second or third best running back on the field. Cam Newton continues to cover spreads here against the Titans at home.<br />
<br />
<b>Washington (+4)</b> at Miami<br />
<br />
John Beck might not be able to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, as evidenced by Roy Helu breaking the team's single-game franchise record for receptions last week, but that won't matter. Washington turns back to Rex Grossman, which is enough for them to cover this surprisingly high spread against a team that won its first game in November.<br />
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<b>New Orleans (pick)</b> at Atlanta<br />
<br />
If the Falcons are going to take a step back this year (as expected), and the Saints are going to emerge as the clear top team in the NFC South (as expected), New Orleans finds a way to get this game on the road.<br />
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<b>St. Louis (+2.5) </b>at Cleveland<br />
<br />
Two of my favorite teams to pick against during the 2011 season going against each other. The Rams make up for their amazingly awful loss last week (field goal blocked at end of regulation, lose by six in overtime after being 3.5-point underdogs at Arizona) with a cover here.<br />
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Arizona at <b>Philadelphia (-14)</b><br />
<br />
You see the 14-point spread and you want to take Arizona on the road against Philly. But think of how you're going to feel when the game is headed into the 4th quarter, the Eagles are up 27-7 and you need John Skelton to engineer an 80-yard touchdown drive.<br />
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Seattle at <b>Baltimore (-6.5)</b><br />
<br />
After letdowns against Tennessee and Jacksonville, and more recently an almost disastrous loss to Arizona, there's no way Baltimore doesn't get up for this game. And if the Bengals and a rookie quarterback beat the Seahawks 34-12 earlier this year in Seattle, Baltimore should be able to do the same.<br />
<br />
Detroit at <b>Chicago (-3)</b><br />
<br />
Game that could either go one of two ways: Chicago avenges its earlier loss to Detroit on Monday night, or Detroit wins with the Bears coming off a short week after the Monday night win at Philly.<br />
<br />
New York Giants at <b>San Francisco (-3.5)</b><br />
<br />
For the past seven years, I never thought I'd be laying more than three points with an Alex Smith-quarterbacked team against one of the better teams in the NFC.<br />
<br />
New England at <b>New York Jets (-2)</b><br />
<br />
Smart move by NBC to put the top two rivalries in the league on Sunday night in back-to-back weeks. And even though New England has lost two straight, the home team has usually held serve in this game.<br />
<br />
Minnesota at <b>Green Bay (-13)</b><br />
<br />
Rather than watch Aaron Rodgers cut up the Minnesota secondary on Monday night, I'll be refereeing intramural basketball games for the night. Really, there is nothing worse.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-69841424796271621622011-11-05T20:59:00.002-04:002011-11-06T00:50:01.339-04:00NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 56-56-4 Last Week: 3-10</b><br />
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<i>All lines courtesy of the New York Post</i><br />
<br />
<b>Atlanta (-7) </b>at Indianapolis<br />
<br />
After a strong start to the season, my poor past couple of weeks picking games has completely rattled me, rendering me as confused as Curtis Painter in the pocket. Zing! Getting back on track starts with going against the Colts, who are slowly becoming my favorite team to pick against in 2011.<br />
<br />
Washington at <b>San Francisco (-3.5)</b><br />
<br />
The Redskins playing a 6-1 team and getting only 3.5 after having just been shut out 23-0 against one of the league's worst defenses? That's not fishy at all! But a trap game needs two components, with one of those being an actual competent NFL team, which the Redskins are not.<br />
<br />
Miami at <b>Kansas City (-4)</b><br />
<br />
Trap game, Part II. But with Indianapolis almost certainly losing to Atlanta, the Dolphins can't fool around here. They need to be down by at least 10 heading into the fourth.<br />
<br />
<b>New York Jets (+2)</b> at Buffalo<br />
<br />
My continued resistance to picking the Bills is justified this week as the Jets begin an important three-game stretch (@ BUF, vs. NE, @ DEN) with a win in Buffalo. Either a victory, or a loss by two points or less.<br />
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Cleveland at <b>Houston (-10.5)</b><br />
<br />
Despite Houston's best efforts earlier this year to stay on track for an 8-8 season, the schedule (and the general suckiness of their division) has set up perfectly for the Texans. Now, in comes one of the more boring teams in recent NFL history.<br />
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Seattle at <b>Dallas (-11.5)</b><br />
<br />
Cowboys Ring of Honor Ceremony. Dallas just got blown out on national television. Seattle suffered a bad home loss to Cincy. As Cousin Sal from <i>Jimmy Kimmel Live! </i>says: There is no better time for a classically bad Seahawkian performance!<br />
<br />
<b>Tampa Bay (+8)</b> at New Orleans<br />
<br />
This is what I like to call a "game I'd like to spend my Sunday watching instead of sitting in the student newspaper office and reading about how our swimming and diving team did this weekend" game.<br />
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<b>St. Louis (+3) </b>at Arizona<br />
<br />
I like the Rams. (As I try to adopt a new goal of typing as little as possible when it comes to two NFC West teams squaring off).<br />
<br />
<b>New York Giants (+9)</b> at New England<br />
<br />
I think this will play out similar to the Cowboys-Patriots game from earlier this season. Now that that's over, I'm off to see more replays of the Tyree catch!<br />
<br />
<b>Green Bay (-5.5) </b>at San Diego<br />
<br />
The way this season is going for Norv Turner, it looks like we're (finally) headed for the end of one of the great American employment stories of all-time. The cycle of continuously underachieving, but then still managing to be brought back, ends the week after San Diego's season.<br />
<br />
Denver at <b>Oakland (-7)</b><br />
<br />
Unless Carson Palmer provides most of the Denver offense (which is very possible), the Raiders should be able to cover this touchdown at home.<br />
<br />
Cincinnati at <b>Tennessee (-3)</b><br />
<br />
The 5-2 Bengals with a chance to take a share of the AFC North lead heading into Week 10 with a victory here: Who would've known!?!<br />
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Baltimore at <b>Pittsburgh (-3)</b><br />
<br />
That sound you heard was NBC executives breathing a sigh of relief for this always close game coming after Dallas-Philadelphia (34-7), Indianapolis-New Orleans (62-7) and Minnesota-Chicago (39-10).<br />
<br />
<b>Chicago (+7.5)</b> at Philadelphia<br />
<br />
The backdoor cover the Bears didn't get earlier this year on Monday night against Detroit prepared them on how to properly execute the backdoor cover for this game, as Chicago scores a "meaningless" touchdown late.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1492022559867699633.post-15920039691963649952011-10-30T12:54:00.002-04:002011-11-05T21:01:20.103-04:00NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread<b>Season: 53-46-4 Last Week: 6-6-1 </b><br />
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Miami at <b>New York Giants (-9.5)</b><br />
<br />
The Dolphins blew a 15-point lead in three minutes last week, signed J.P. Losman (who could play if the Giants further injure Matt Moore) and kept Tony Sparano as coach after last week's debacle; three key signs of a team that has emerged as the favorite in the race for Andrew Luck.<br />
<br />
Indianapolis at <b>Tennessee (-8.5)</b><br />
<br />
Possibly the first time in history a team that lost by 34 the previous week is favored by more than a touchdown in its next game. All courtesy of the 2011 Indianapolis Colts!<br />
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<b>Jacksonville (+9.5) </b>at Houston<br />
<br />
What's the next thing you automatically do after the Texans come off a big win in the Gary Kubiak era? Pick against them in the next game, of course.<br />
<br />
Minnesota at <b>Carolina (-3.5)</b><br />
<br />
Cam Newton has been a covering machine this year, leading the Panthers to covers in six of the team's first seven games. Among the most notable were the touchdown against the Packers with 37 seconds left in Week 2, and the touchdown against the Bears with four seconds left in Week 4. This time, no backdoor cover necessary.<br />
<br />
St. Louis at <b>New Orleans (-13.5)</b><br />
<br />
As a known bragger, I would like to use this space to mention that I had DeMarco Murray in my fantasy lineup for his explosion last week against the Rams. 253 yards! one TD! Wooo!! (You'll be hearing about this for the next year, at least).<br />
<br />
Arizona at <b>Baltimore (-12.5)</b><br />
<br />
The last time Kevin Kolb played the Ravens, he was replacing a benched Donovan McNabb and threw two interceptions, with one being returned for a touchdown. Expect more of the same this Sunday. A lot more of the same.<br />
<br />
<b>Washington (+5) </b>at Buffalo<br />
<br />
Those we call the Canadians get to see the second start for John Beck, which should go a little bit better than the first thanks to the fact he is going up against one of the league's worst pass defenses. The backdoor cover will be in play!<br />
<br />
<b>New England (-2.5)</b> at Pittsburgh<br />
<br />
Never go against Tom Brady in Pittsburgh. Never go against Tom Brady in Pittsburgh. Never go against Tom Brady in Pittsburgh.<br />
<br />
Cleveland at <b>San Francisco (-9)</b><br />
<br />
The last time the Browns made the trip out West, they were down 24-3 to the Oakland Raiders before Kyle Boller came in for the injured Jason Campbell and Cleveland put up a few late touchdowns for the 24-17 loss. This time, there will be no Boller to help out one of the league's most boring teams in recent memory.<br />
<br />
Cincinnati at <b>Seattle (+3)</b><br />
Detroit at <b>Denver (+3)</b><br />
<br />
Excuse me while I pray to Tim Tebow's god that the home-field advantage in these two games is enough to keep the clearly inferior teams within a field goal of Cincy and Detroit.<br />
<br />
<b>Dallas (+3.5) </b>at Philadelphia<br />
<br />
Wait a second: DeMarco Murray! 253 yards! one TD!<br />
<br />
San Diego at <b>Kansas City (+3.5)</b><br />
<br />
After Jacksonville-Baltimore and Jets-Miami the past two weeks and Minnesota-Green Bay upcoming, this Monday night game will feel like, you know, a game worthy of being played on Monday night.Tyler Tomeahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03119832915372067003noreply@blogger.com