January 22, 2012

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Conference Championships

Season: 132-124-8          Last Week: 2-2          Playoffs: 6-2

Baltimore (+7.5) at New England

Because this spread is an overreaction line following New England's dominance of Denver and Baltimore's lackluster effort at home against Houston.

Because Joe Flacco can't look as poor as he did against the Houston defense against the New England defense.

Because this pick was made with me remembering Flacco's game-winning drive at Pittsburgh and not the performance he mailed in during the Sunday night game in San Diego.

Because of Ray Rice.

Because Baltimore doesn't believe it can keep it close, it believes it can actually win the game.

Because I picked them in a playoff pool, and would be forced to root for them no matter what, so I might as well pick them here.

Because of Ray Rice.

Because if the Jets won last year, why can't the Ravens keep it within a touchdown this year?

New York Giants (+2.5) at San Francisco

Because it's a bad sign that despite forcing five turnovers, San Francisco was trailing with 45 seconds left.

Because I want the already played out "Is Eli Elite?" storyline to continue for another three weeks.

Because if the Patriots win earlier in the day, the Giants will win. It has to happen.

Because it's scary to look at the stat line from San Francisco's wide receivers last week.

Because, hopefully, this game won't need to come down to a Lawrence Tynes vs David Akers battle.

Because the Giants have the better playmakers, and are riding the same wave they rode to Super Bowl 42.

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