December 24, 2011

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 109-109-7          Last Week: 10-5-1          This Week: 0-1 

Cleveland at Baltimore (-42.5) Baltimore (-12.5)

After a week of hearing how they rolled over in San Diego, the Ravens receive the perfect team to get them back on the right track: The 2011 Cleveland Browns! And no need to fear the Browns players wanting to exact revenge for Art Modell moving the team from Cleveland to Baltimore in the mid-1990s, most of the current Browns were in their pre-teen years then.

Minnesota (+6.5) at Washington

Thank God I'm still not in Washington, D.C. to watch this game, as there's a good chance I would have jumped out my third floor window by the third quarter of this fiasco. 

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-7.5)

Giving more than a touchdown is a lot to ask of a team that is 5-9 I thought, until I remembered watching the Bucs completely mail it in Saturday against Dallas. Cam Newton fantasy owners, rejoice!

Denver at Buffalo (+3.5)

Rather than spend 100 words trying to explain to you why I like Buffalo, I'll just hope this pick doesn't look bad by the first TV timeout.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)

Jacksonville's quarterback: Blaine Gabbert
The receivers Blaine Gabbert will be throwing to: Some combination of Taylor Price, Chastin West and Colin Cloherty. After this inevitably bad performance, I predict 65 Wildcat snaps next weekend for Maurice Jones-Drew.


New York Giants (+3) at New York Jets

With most of my friends on Facebook either being Jets or Giants fans, I'm looking forward to the bevy of insults being thrown back and forth between the hours of 1 and 4 p.m. Saturday.


Oakland (+2) at Kansas City

Let's get statistical for a moment, shall we?
---> The Raiders have won four straight games at Kansas City.
---> Oakland is 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight at Arrowhead.
Long field goals and booming punts all afternoon!

Miami (+10.5) at New England

Cousin Sal made a great point in his Grantland blog: With the way Reggie Bush has been playing these last few games, imagine how much of a psychological boost he will get with this game being played on a Saturday. The New England defense will look like Washington State, or some other inferior Pac-12 foe.

St. Louis (+16.5) at Pittsburgh

I see Pittsburgh running the ball. I see Pittsburgh continuing to run the ball. I see Pittsburgh not attempting a pass that travels 40 yards in the air. All of this adds up to a 17-3 game that could be over while every other game is at halftime.

Arizona (+4.5) at Cincinnati

With a win here, Arizona guarantees itself of a non-losing season. I don't know how that ended up happening either.

San Diego (+2.5) at Detroit
San Francisco at Seattle (+2.5)
Philadelphia (+1.5) at Dallas

Here's where things get shaky, with my family arriving at my house at 4:30 for Christmas Eve. (Clearly, there was a thought process behind that time. By 4:30 all of the 1 p.m. games will be completed, even if anything goes to overtime). So, I'll have to find some way around spending time with my family in order to watch these three games. (I already felt guilty just writing that sentence).

Chicago (+13) at Green Bay

The Bears have opted to go with a McCown brother this Sunday in Green Bay. Which one? I don't know. But if Seattle wins, Green Bay will have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And McCown obviously can't be worse than Caleb Hanie, who I'll remember for throwing the ball DIRECTLY AT Seattle's Red Bryant last week.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-6.5)

Always taking Drew Brees at home at night is nearing its place among one of the steadfast rules when it comes to picking these games. Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

December 18, 2011

NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 100-104-6          Last Week: 8-8          This Week: 1-1 (Completely forgot Tampa Bay had already mailed in its 2011 season two weeks ago)

Carolina (+6.5) at Houston

Brutal start to the bowl season, going 1-2 through the first three games (straight-up picks, no confidence points). Utah State gave up a 23-10 lead in the middle game, while San Diego State shows us how to lose a game in 50 seconds in the nightcap.

It's only fair then that, with his team trailing by 13 points with 35 seconds remaining, Cam Newton trots into the endzone untouched to make amends for yesterday's disaster.

Washington at New York Giants (-7)

No Osi? Possibly no Justin Tuck? No problem! (OK, slight problem, but it sounded better if I wrote it that way). Washington coming into the Meadowlands sets up a perfect stress free game for Giants fans after Miles Austin and the Cowboys Stadium lights kept their season alive last week.

Green Bay (-14) at Kansas City

This could be the last opportunity to pick the Packers at full strength before the playoffs come around. And then I ask you this: If Kyle Orton couldn't consistently throw properly with 10 good fingers, how is he going to do it with nine?

New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota

When a high-powered offense comes into Minnesota, and reports surface during the week that a horrible Vikings secondary has been ignoring defensive play calls this season, I tend to side with the high-powered offense.

Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago

My suggestion: Watch any and all of Devin Hester's punt returns, then immediately switch this game off before either offense takes the field. Chicago: 3, Seattle: 0

Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis

Two inspired 4th quarter efforts in recent weeks by Indianapolis. The Colts trailed 31-3 at New England and lost 31-24, then scored a touchdown on the last play of the game to cover last week in Baltimore. There's no way Indianapolis gets up for this week's game 4th quarter though.

Cincinnati (-6.5) at St. Louis

When I wrote last week to take the Bengals against the Texans because this isn't your typical Cincinnati team filled with ex-convicts and felons, I completely forgot Pacman Jones was on the team! How could I!?!? Of course, Pacman's penalty essentially cost Cincy the victory. But no worries in this game, as 10 boneheaded plays from the Pacman can't make up for the Rams' overall incompetence.

Miami (-1.5) at Buffalo

This line might seem a little off until you remember Buffalo already buried itself at 1:00 p.m. EST on Nov. 13 in Dallas.

Detroit (-1) at Oakland

All we'll need is Kevin Smith's ankles to hold up for three quarters here, and we should be good. Also, the following prop needs to be listed in some sportsbook somewhere (if it's not already): Will there be a penalty on the kickoff? YES (+270) NO (-230) OFFSETTING PENALTIES (+1200).

Cleveland (+7) at Arizona

Moving on...

New England (-6) at Denver

Similar to the well-known rule of never taking Dallas in Arizona is the rule of never taking Tom Brady in Denver. But that ruled applied at a time when Denver's receivers were catching footballs that were actually spiraling towards them.

New York Jets at Philadelphia (-2.5)
Baltimore at San Diego (+2.5)

These games can go one of two ways, and we'll know pretty early on: Either both Philly and San Diego fight for 60 minutes and put forth inspired efforts, or they take a cue from Tampa Bay on Saturday and mail it in after the first commercial break. I'm hoping (praying?) for the former, and not the latter.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at San Francisco

It looks like Ben Roethlisberger will play, and Roethlisberger on one leg, somehow, is still 75 percent better than Alex Smith on two. Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

December 11, 2011

NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 91-96-6          Last Week: 8-8          This Week: 0-1

Houston at Cincinnati (-3)

If you're thinking about jumping off the Bengals after their 35-7 loss at Pittsburgh, now's not the time. Remember, this isn't your typical Cincinnati team filled with ex-convicts and felons, and may put every defender in the box against the Andre Johnson-less Texans.

Kansas City at New York Jets (-10)

Despite Tyler Palko's suckiness being well-known, he has managed to cover two of the three games he's started; A modern Christmas miracle! But the run ends at the Meadowlands, where Palko's inability to complete another Hail Mary voids the Chiefs of any semblance of offense.

Minnesota at Detroit (-9.5)

Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson enter this game as questionable for the Vikes. You know who else is questionable? The rest of Minnesota's 53-man roster! Detroit mixes in touchdowns with some leg drops to various Minnesota offensive linemen for the cover.

Tampa Bay (-2) at Jacksonville

In lieu of talking about this awful game, let's examine my first round fantasy football matchup in my main league, shall we. (I understand how annoying it is to listen to someone talk about fantasy football, much less write about it. So if you want to skip this, by all means, feel free).

I'll be going with: Eli, Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, DeMarco Murray, Gore, Witten, A.J. Green, Matt Bryant and the Denver defense.

I'll be going up against: Roethlisberger, Calvin Johnson, Lance Moore, Mendenhall, Kevin Smith (or Maurice Morris), Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Nick Novak and the Green Bay defense.

Winning this week (and the two weeks that follow) will require a tiny bit of luck but a LARGE amount of skill.

Philadelphia (+3) at Miami

Everything about Miami has to come crashing down at some point, right? What happened to the Dolphins' home-field disadvantage? Where is that team that blew a 15-0 late lead to Denver at home? Where is it!?!

New Orleans (-3.5) at Tennessee

The Titans are the popular upset pick this week. But I don't want to be the guy hoping for Tennessee to cover when I realize "Wait, who is Matt Hasselbeck throwing to again?" (The answer is some form of Jared Cook, Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins).

New England (-8) at Washington

No need to over think this one and wonder why this line is so low, I took care of that already. Instead, look at this as an early Christmas gift from the bookies and cash in as much as you can.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5)

The plan here is to not watch a minute of this game until the last five minutes, when Indianapolis will be down 23 and driving in hopes of executing its second consecutive backdoor cover.

Atlanta (-3) at Carolina

Atlanta continues its season-long process of losing to the good teams on its schedule and defeating the average to bad teams en route to its definite first round loss come January.

Chicago (+3.5) at Denver

Am I the only one siding with Caleb Hanie instead of Tim Tebow this weekend? I am? OK, just checking.

San Francisco (-4) at Arizona

The longstanding rule of taking Arizona at home against Dallas (and the Cards not only covering, but winning) has pushed this spread down to four. I'll take the rock solid 49ers against the skittish Kevin Kolb, thank you very much.

Buffalo at San Diego (-6.5)

After starting off 4-1, the Bills are now set to continue getting blown out by various teams over the remainder of their schedule, with the trend continuing Sunday at San Diego.

Oakland (+12) at Green Bay

Deep punts and long field goals. Deep punts and long field goals. Deep punts and long field goals.

New York Giants (+3.5) at Dallas

If ever there were a game where the home team should be favored by three (thereby signaling the teams as equal), it would be this one. Dallas blew a win in Arizona that would have allowed them to clinch the NFC East in this game, while the Giants went toe-to-toe with Green Bay and the Giants are getting an extra half point? Take the Giants and watch as Eli advances me into the fantasy semifinals.

St. Louis at Seattle (-6.5)

Instead of a good game to watch while I inevitably procrastinate studying for my finals, I get stuck with this. What the *%&$! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

December 4, 2011

NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 83-88-6          Last Week: 8-8         This Week: 0-1


Indianapolis at New England (-20.5)

Nope, this is not a misprint. Fortunately for us Patriots pickers, we only have to give less than three touchdowns, a full 10 points below where this spread should have been.

Tennessee (+1.5) at Buffalo
Atlanta (-2.5) at Houston

Big week for the AFC South. If the Titans get this game in Buffalo, they'll be 9-6 (vs. NO, @ Indy, vs. JAC) heading into Houston in Week 17.
If the Texans win against Atlanta, they could be 11-4 (@ CIN, vs. CAR, @ Indy), make their Week 17 matchup against the Titans meaningless and in the process relieve their fans from the torture they feel around this time each year.

Carolina (+3) at Tampa Bay

Excuse me while I go pray to Tim Tebow's God that a few of my fantasy football starters match up against these defenses in the fantasy playoffs.

Kansas City at Chicago (-7)

You: That's a lot of points to be laying with Caleb Hanie in his second start of the season.
Me: Did you see Tyler Palko last Sunday night? Did you?!?

Denver (+1.5) at Minnesota

This has all the makings of a trap game: The Broncos coming in having won four straight, fourth game in five weeks on the road, the inability for their quarterback to complete the forward pass. Until you realize that the Vikings completely suck.

Oakland (+3) at Miami

I know, I know, the Raiders traveling across the country to play a feisty Dolphins team could turn out horribly by 3:00 p.m. Sunday afternoon. But think of Matt Moore having to go 85-yards each drive after Shane Lechler's punts and the Raiders only needing to move the ball to Miami's 40 for Sebastian Janikowski. (Yes, I am basing this pick completely on field goal kicking and punting).

Cincinnati (+7) at Pittsburgh

The Bengals have been good to me all year, starting all the way back with their (then) Week 1 upset at Cleveland straight through the rest of the season.

New York Jets at Washington (+3.5)

Just when you say it's time for Rex Grossman to completely implode, I say no! One more good performance from Rex keeps the Redskins close with the Jets, as he waits until next week for his three-interception game.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
St. Louis at San Francisco (-13.5)

The Browns and Rams; two of my favorite teams to pick against in 2011!

Arizona (+4.5) at Dallas

There are some weird, unexplainable things when it comes to picking games against the spread. One of those is that whenever Dallas plays at Arizona, you take the Cardinals. Don't ask why, just do it.

Green Bay (-6) at New York Giants

This being a desperation game for the Giants does nothing in terms of helping them prepare for an offense that has given them all kinds of trouble in the past.

Detroit at New Orleans (-9)

Another night contest against a team with no running game, another Saints blowout by midway through the third quarter!

San Diego (-3) at Jacksonville

There really is nothing better than seeing Jacksonville on Monday night for the second time this season. You hear me? Nothing better! (I know, corny attempt at a joke. But I had to thrown in the obligatory 'I can't believe the Jags are on Monday night again comment). Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

November 27, 2011

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 76-81-6          Last Week: 5-7-2          This Week: 1-2

Buffalo at New York Jets (-8.5)

An angry Jets defense following a tough Thursday night loss at Denver. Thankfully, that's Ryan Fitzpatrick's problem to deal with, and not mine. 
And even Isiah Thomas wouldn't have rewarded Fitzpatrick with a contract extension seven weeks into the season. (You thought I would end this blurb without taking a shot at the Fitzpatrick contract? No chance!).

Minnesota at Atlanta (-9.5)

Christian Ponder, Toby Gerhart and a less-than-100 percent Percy Harvin: Perfect for covering a spread like this in college, but not so much in the Georgia Dome against an Atlanta team getting back Julio Jones.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Cincinnati 

Speaking of Julio Jones, wouldn't he look great right now in a Browns uniform? An electric receiver with big-play capability is just what this franchise needs. Wait a second, you're telling me they had the chance to draft him, and then traded out of the spot? What the #$%^&!!! 
(Anyway, how ridiculous does that Peyton Hillis Madden cover look? Very ridiculous, I say).

Houston (-3.5) at Jacksonville

The fact that Matt Leinart is making his first career start for Houston may be enough to make you lean towards Jacksonville. Until of course, you remember that Blaine Gabbert is really, really bad at playing quarterback.

Chicago (+3.5) at Oakland

I love this pick as much as you can love a pick in which Caleb Haine will be your starting quarterback. But without Jay Cutler, the Bears defense puts forth an inspired effort while Carson Palmer puts forth a Palmerian effort.

Arizona (+3) at St. Louis

Thankfully, this game is being played at 1 p.m., so its overall suckiness will be hidden among the six other early-afternoon games. 

Washington at Seattle (-3.5)

This game could go one of two ways: Rex Grossman and the Redskins gave their all in last Sunday's game against the Cowboys, and head out to the Great Northwest to get slaughtered in front of a raucous home crowd. Or, the Seahawks play like they did against the Bengals earlier this season at home, and this game is close or the Redskins pull out the win. Whichever way this game goes, I don't think anyone cares (except, of course, for those picking said game).

Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Tennessee

Carolina and Tennessee were involved in two games last week that make us remember how fun it is to bet on NFL games pick games against the spread for fun.

Carolina at Detroit: The Panthers took a 24-7 lead in the 2nd quarter, and were up 27-14 at halftime. With less than five minutes to go, they scored to tie the game at 35 (putting them up 42.5-35 including the spread.) Re-read that sentence again. Somehow, the Panthers still managed to not cover.

Tennessee at Atlanta: The Falcons took a 23-3 lead with three minutes left in the third quarter following a Matt Bryant short field goal. What followed was a Jake Locker 40-yard touchdown pass, a Michael Turner fumble at the Titans' 7-yard line and an improbable Tennesee conversion on 4th-and-17 that led to a 23-17 final and a push. 

New England at Philadelphia (+3.5)

A pick made strictly from a who needs the game more standpoint. Even after the Jets dismantle the Bills earlier in the day, a New England loss keeps them two games up on the Jets with this remaining schedule: Indy, @ Denver, @ Washington, Miami and Buffalo. Tough to do two weeks in a row, but the Eagles post another solid showing in an underdog role at home. (And how high will next week's spread be for Colts-Patriots in New England?!?)

Denver (+6.5) at San Diego

With a win here and an Oakland home loss to Chicago, a quarterback that is incapable of figuring out  the forward pass will be leading a team atop the AFC West in the NFL in 2011.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-10.5)

Another night game, another week of Tyler Palko in primetime!

New York Giants at New Orleans (-7)

No team has been more unlucky than the Giants when it comes to their two intraconference games on this year's schedule. By finishing 2nd in the NFC East last season, they get the 2nd place team in the NFC South at one of the league's toughest venues, and then they're home to the 2nd place team in the NFC North that hasn't lost since Week 15 in 2010.



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November 20, 2011

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 70-73-4          Last Week: 7-9          This Week: 0-1

Dallas (-7.5) at Washington

Week 11 already. It goes by too fast. Despite starting off 3-1 this season, the Redskins have returned to their Redskinian ways by losing their last five in a row, and that will continue at a FedEx Field filled with Dallas fans Sunday.


Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14)

The Bucs continue their quest to get blown out by at least five teams this year when their defense takes on Aaron Rodgers. (Although it was around this time that the '07 Patriots began to slow down).


Buffalo (+2) at Miami

Much to the chagrin of Dolphins fans, Miami has won two straight and effectively taken itself out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, leading many to believe it could be the first time in history a fanbase has called for its coach to be fired after winning games.


Oakland (pick) at Minnesota

I think I've picked Oakland more times this year than in the past three years combined, and despite the obvious signs of a trap game, I'll (very reluctantly) take the Raiders again.


Carolina (+7) at Detroit

Two covering machines that haven't been getting it done as the season has wore on. After both teams started 5-0 against the spread, the Lions and Panthers are just 1-3 in their last four. (Sad that it has come to looking at teams' record against the spread rather than their actual record).

Jacksonville (+1) at Cleveland

You would think that in a week with the four NFC West teams playing each other, the worst game of the week would involve those teams. But Cleveland has surpassed the NFC West in terms of general suckiness and unwatchableness this season.

Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore

One week after leading a game-winning late drive at Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco reminds you that one of the rules in the NFL is never to trust him, and he proved that point last week in Seattle.

Arizona at San Francisco (-9.5)
Seattle at St. Louis (-2.5)

NFC West: Tyler, you've been taking a lot of shots at our division this year, did you see what we did last week?
Tyler: (Looks down)
NFC West: All four of our teams won on Sunday. You hear me? All four teams!!
Tyler: (Searching for joke about the division).

San Diego at Chicago (-3.5)

San Diego heading to Soldier Field without its offensive line and a soft defense is usually not a good idea. The only thing stopping this cover is a classic Jay Cutler interception-returned-for-touchdown game.

Tennessee (+6) at Atlanta

One of the toughest teams to figure out this year is Tennessee, which is why I'll opt not to spend this 75-word blurb trying to figure them out.

Philadelphia (+6) at New York Giants

After last season's game, the Giants would want nothing more than to drive a stake through the heart of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. But the Giants haven't covered these types of spreads all year, and the Eagles should get up for this one game.

Kansas City at New England (-14.5)

Two words: Tyler Palko. Some more words: Another Monday night, another uninteresting game.

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November 13, 2011

NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 63-64-4          Last Week: 7-7          This Week: 0-1

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati

Andy Dalton has had enough games against the Buffalo's, Seattle's and Indianapolis' of the world en route to putting together one of the more unlikely eight-game stretches in the NFL. But luckily for me, facing an angry Pittsburgh defense after last week is his problem, not mine.

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

We'll find out if the Chiefs are the team that lost their first two games by a combined 79 points, shutout Oakland on the road and defeated San Diego on Monday night, or a classic AFC West team where everyone has no clue what's going to happen from week to week.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3)

Winnable game for Indianapolis, and at this point in the season, winnable games are the last thing Colts fans want to see.

Buffalo (+5.5) at Dallas

The Buffalo defense can't stop anyone. At all. Which is why this game sets up perfectly for a classic Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass with 40 seconds left to backdoor cover the spread.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Houston

Out-of-conference game on the road after three straight convincing wins against a team that needs a victory to stay in contention in the NFC. This is the annual, "Just when you think the Texans are really good, they remind you their the Texans with a mind-boggling loss" game.

Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5)

The chances Tennessee had to compete for an AFC playoff berth this year were lost when 1.) Kenny Britt was lost for the year. 2.) They blew a 17-7 halftime lead to Cincy at home. and 3.) Chris Johnson enters each game as either the second or third best running back on the field. Cam Newton continues to cover spreads here against the Titans at home.

Washington (+4) at Miami

John Beck might not be able to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, as evidenced by Roy Helu breaking the team's single-game franchise record for receptions last week, but that won't matter. Washington turns back to Rex Grossman, which is enough for them to cover this surprisingly high spread against a team that won its first game in November.

New Orleans (pick) at Atlanta

If the Falcons are going to take a step back this year (as expected), and the Saints are going to emerge as the clear top team in the NFC South (as expected), New Orleans finds a way to get this game on the road.

St. Louis (+2.5) at Cleveland

Two of my favorite teams to pick against during the 2011 season going against each other. The Rams make up for their amazingly awful loss last week (field goal blocked at end of regulation, lose by six in overtime after being 3.5-point underdogs at Arizona) with a cover here.

Arizona at Philadelphia (-14)

You see the 14-point spread and you want to take Arizona on the road against Philly. But think of how you're going to feel when the game is headed into the 4th quarter, the Eagles are up 27-7 and you need John Skelton to engineer an 80-yard touchdown drive.

Seattle at Baltimore (-6.5)

After letdowns against Tennessee and Jacksonville, and more recently an almost disastrous loss to Arizona, there's no way Baltimore doesn't get up for this game. And if the Bengals and a rookie quarterback beat the Seahawks 34-12 earlier this year in Seattle, Baltimore should be able to do the same.

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Game that could either go one of two ways: Chicago avenges its earlier loss to Detroit on Monday night, or Detroit wins with the Bears coming off a short week after the Monday night win at Philly.

New York Giants at San Francisco (-3.5)

For the past seven years, I never thought I'd be laying more than three points with an Alex Smith-quarterbacked team against one of the better teams in the NFC.

New England at New York Jets (-2)

Smart move by NBC to put the top two rivalries in the league on Sunday night in back-to-back weeks. And even though New England has lost two straight, the home team has usually held serve in this game.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-13)

Rather than watch Aaron Rodgers cut up the Minnesota secondary on Monday night, I'll be refereeing intramural basketball games for the night. Really, there is nothing worse. Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

November 5, 2011

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 56-56-4          Last Week: 3-10

All lines courtesy of the New York Post

Atlanta (-7) at Indianapolis

After a strong start to the season, my poor past couple of weeks picking games has completely rattled me, rendering me as confused as Curtis Painter in the pocket. Zing! Getting back on track starts with going against the Colts, who are slowly becoming my favorite team to pick against in 2011.

Washington at San Francisco (-3.5)

The Redskins playing a 6-1 team and getting only 3.5 after having just been shut out 23-0 against one of the league's worst defenses? That's not fishy at all! But a trap game needs two components, with one of those being an actual competent NFL team, which the Redskins are not.

Miami at Kansas City (-4)

Trap game, Part II. But with Indianapolis almost certainly losing to Atlanta, the Dolphins can't fool around here. They need to be down by at least 10 heading into the fourth.

New York Jets (+2) at Buffalo

My continued resistance to picking the Bills is justified this week as the Jets begin an important three-game stretch (@ BUF, vs. NE, @ DEN) with a win in Buffalo. Either a victory, or a loss by two points or less.

Cleveland at Houston (-10.5)

Despite Houston's best efforts earlier this year to stay on track for an 8-8 season, the schedule (and the general suckiness of their division) has set up perfectly for the Texans. Now, in comes one of the more boring teams in recent NFL history.

Seattle at Dallas (-11.5)

Cowboys Ring of Honor Ceremony. Dallas just got blown out on national television. Seattle suffered a bad home loss to Cincy. As Cousin Sal from Jimmy Kimmel Live! says: There is no better time for a classically bad Seahawkian performance!

Tampa Bay (+8) at New Orleans

This is what I like to call a "game I'd like to spend my Sunday watching instead of sitting in the student newspaper office and reading about how our swimming and diving team did this weekend" game.

St. Louis (+3) at Arizona

I like the Rams. (As I try to adopt a new goal of typing as little as possible when it comes to two NFC West teams squaring off).

New York Giants (+9) at New England

I think this will play out similar to the Cowboys-Patriots game from earlier this season. Now that that's over, I'm off to see more replays of the Tyree catch!

Green Bay (-5.5) at San Diego

The way this season is going for Norv Turner, it looks like we're (finally) headed for the end of one of the great American employment stories of all-time. The cycle of continuously underachieving, but then still managing to be brought back, ends the week after San Diego's season.

Denver at Oakland (-7)

Unless Carson Palmer provides most of the Denver offense (which is very possible), the Raiders should be able to cover this touchdown at home.

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-3)

The 5-2 Bengals with a chance to take a share of the AFC North lead heading into Week 10 with a victory here: Who would've known!?!

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)

That sound you heard was NBC executives breathing a sigh of relief for this always close game coming after Dallas-Philadelphia (34-7), Indianapolis-New Orleans (62-7) and Minnesota-Chicago (39-10).

Chicago (+7.5) at Philadelphia

The backdoor cover the Bears didn't get earlier this year on Monday night against Detroit prepared them on how to properly execute the backdoor cover for this game, as Chicago scores a "meaningless" touchdown late. Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

October 30, 2011

NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 53-46-4          Last Week: 6-6-1 

Miami at New York Giants (-9.5)

The Dolphins blew a 15-point lead in three minutes last week, signed J.P. Losman (who could play if the Giants further injure Matt Moore) and kept Tony Sparano as coach after last week's debacle; three key signs of a team that has emerged as the favorite in the race for Andrew Luck.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-8.5)

Possibly the first time in history a team that lost by 34 the previous week is favored by more than a touchdown in its next game. All courtesy of the 2011 Indianapolis Colts!

Jacksonville (+9.5) at Houston

What's the next thing you automatically do after the Texans come off a big win in the Gary Kubiak era? Pick against them in the next game, of course.

Minnesota at Carolina (-3.5)

Cam Newton has been a covering machine this year, leading the Panthers to covers in six of the team's first seven games. Among the most notable were the touchdown against the Packers with 37 seconds left in Week 2, and the touchdown against the Bears with four seconds left in Week 4. This time, no backdoor cover necessary.

St. Louis at New Orleans (-13.5)

As a known bragger, I would like to use this space to mention that I had DeMarco Murray in my fantasy lineup for his explosion last week against the Rams. 253 yards! one TD! Wooo!! (You'll be hearing about this for the next year, at least).

Arizona at Baltimore (-12.5)

The last time Kevin Kolb played the Ravens, he was replacing a benched Donovan McNabb and threw two interceptions, with one being returned for a touchdown. Expect more of the same this Sunday. A lot more of the same.

Washington (+5) at Buffalo

Those we call the Canadians get to see the second start for John Beck, which should go a little bit better than the first thanks to the fact he is going up against one of the league's worst pass defenses. The backdoor cover will be in play!

New England (-2.5) at Pittsburgh

Never go against Tom Brady in Pittsburgh. Never go against Tom Brady in Pittsburgh. Never go against Tom Brady in Pittsburgh.

Cleveland at San Francisco (-9)

The last time the Browns made the trip out West, they were down 24-3 to the Oakland Raiders before Kyle Boller came in for the injured Jason Campbell and Cleveland put up a few late touchdowns for the 24-17 loss. This time, there will be no Boller to help out one of the league's most boring teams in recent memory.

Cincinnati at Seattle (+3)
Detroit at Denver (+3)

Excuse me while I pray to Tim Tebow's god that the home-field advantage in these two games is enough to keep the clearly inferior teams within a field goal of Cincy and Detroit.

Dallas (+3.5) at Philadelphia

Wait a second: DeMarco Murray! 253 yards! one TD!

San Diego at Kansas City (+3.5)

After Jacksonville-Baltimore and Jets-Miami the past two weeks and Minnesota-Green Bay upcoming, this Monday night game will feel like, you know, a game worthy of being played on Monday night. Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

October 23, 2011

NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 47-40-3          Last Week: 3-10


Tampa Bay vs. Chicago (-1) (Game in London)

After sending over the Troy Smith-led San Francisco 49ers to take on the Denver Broncos in last year's game surprisingly didn't start another war with England, this year London gets treated to two competent teams.

San Diego (+1) at New York Jets

Rex Ryan, on if he coached the Chargers: "Well, I think I would have had a couple of rings. Those teams were loaded."
Norv Turner, in response: "I didn't have the chance to ask him this, but I was wondering if he had those rings with the ones he's guaranteed the last couple of years." Zing! I'm ready for Harbaugh-Schwartz II at the Meadowlands!

Washington at Carolina (-2.5)

John Beck in his first start as a Redskin, or a Carolina defense that might not even be able to stop John Beck?

Houston (+3.5) at Tennessee

Can Houston really be on its way to yet another 8-8 season?

Seattle at Cleveland (-3)

There can't be a more boring way to spend three hours on a Sunday than by watching Seattle at Cleveland.

Denver (pick) at Miami

Miami has brilliantly increased its chances of getting Andrew Luck and erasing the slim home field advantage it had by honoring the 2008 Florida BCS National Championship team Sunday and ensuring a pro-Denver crowd.

Atlanta at Detroit (-3.5)

The injury to Jahvid Best means Detroit's already weak running game will be weaker, but all the Lions will need to do is throw against an Atlanta pass defense that gets carved up weekly.

Kansas City (+3.5) at Oakland

Kyle Boller (and Terrelle Pryor?) will see action this week for Oakland with Carson Palmer making his debut off the bye. I'm not sure whether I'd be more confident in the Kansas City pick with Boller/Pryor or Palmer behind center though.

Green Bay (-9.5) at Minnesota

The Packers left the backdoor wide open all Sunday afternoon for St. Louis, as Green Bay was shutout in the second half but still managed to cover the 14-point spread. I'm hoping for a less stressful cover in this one.

St. Louis (+13.5) at Dallas

I was all set to take Sam Bradford and the Rams in this one, until Bradford sustained a high-ankle sprain on the last play of last week's blowout loss to the Packers. Now, I'll sit back and hope with A.J. Feeley.

Pittsburgh at Arizona (+3.5)

I really have no way to support this pick, just feel that Arizona covers here against a Pittsburgh team that couldn't put away Jacksonville at home.

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-13.5)
Baltimore (-8) at Jacksonville

And just when you thought the primetime games couldn't get any worse, I give you these two games! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

October 16, 2011

NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 44-30-3          Last Week: 9-4


All lines courtesy of the New York Post


Carolina (+4) at Atlanta

What does an exciting rookie quarterback, a dynamic receiver who has decided to try again and a defense that is a defense in name only add up to? A team that does nothing but cover point spreads, of course!

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-12)

Week 4 postgame analysis: "The Steelers look old and worn down." Week 5 postgame analysis: "The Steelers are back!" I really was heavily leaning towards Jacksonville, until I remembered they're Jacksonville.

San Francisco at Detroit (-4)

Monday night saw Game 2 of the ALCS between the Tigers and Rangers and the first Monday night game in a decade in Detroit. This is where my amazing (but sad?) skill of maneuvering with the remote would have come in handy for Detroit fans.

Philadelphia (-3) at Washington

I don't even know anymore.

St. Louis at Green Bay (-14)

I'm not sure I will ever be more scared in my life than when the clock reaches 1 p.m. on Sunday and my fantasy football opponent has Aaron Rodgers going for three and a half hours against the Rams pass defense.

Indianapolis (+7) at Cincinnati

Speaking of fantasy football, I improved to 4-1 last week thanks to Jahvid Best's 88-yard touchdown run on Monday. I got through going up against Calvin Johnson, who has joined Rodgers and Tom Brady on the list of most feared fantasy players.

Buffalo at New York Giants (-3.5)

The only way the Giants can make up for losing to Seattle last week and eliminating 90 percent of the country from their suicide pools is by covering this week against Buffalo.

Dallas at New England (-6.5)

I actually prefer not to light my money on fire, so most weeks I tend to take Tom Brady and New England.

Houston (+8) at Baltimore

I can picture it now: Texans down 14 with two minutes remaining, and Matt Schaub engineers a 75-yard drive for the 7-point loss. Now, if only he'd do it when it counts!

Cleveland (+6.5) at Oakland

One of the toughest games for Week 6. A 2-2 Cleveland team who we know nothing about going up against a 3-2 Oakland team who we know equally nothing about.

New Orleans (-5) at Tampa Bay

No LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams is struggling as the No. 1 receiver, effectively decreasing the offensive weapons I'm scared about in this game on the Bucs to zero.

Minnesota (+3) at Chicago

This spread means these two teams are even. After five games, I don't know how that's true, so this can only mean one thing: Trap game!

Miami at New York Jets (-7)

Will Brandon Marshall be the first player to go insane during a Monday Night Football game? Not sure, but I'll be watching! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

October 9, 2011

NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 35-26-3          Last Week: 9-7


All lines courtesy of the New York Post


New Orleans at Carolina (+6.5) 

Cam Newton has been electric to start his career, which has translated to some amazing backdoor covers, of course. In Week 2 his touchdown run cut the Green Bay lead to 30-23, and he topped himself last week with a touchdown pass with four seconds left (four seconds!) to make it 34-29 Chicago. I see another "meaningless touchdown" on the horizon.

Cincinnati (+2) at Jacksonville

Prior to this season, you would think picking the Bengals against the spread each week would be grounds to have my brain tested. But Cincy has covered each week except Week 3 (13-8 home loss to San Francisco), so I'll continue to roll with them.

Oakland (+6) at Houston

Andre Johnson gets hurt during the Pittsburgh game. Houston coming off a win in a type of game they haven't seem to have won in franchise history. Al Davis passing away Saturday. The stars are aligning for an Oakland cover.

Arizona at Minnesota (-3)

I improved to 3-1 last week in fantasy, as the Colts secondary (thank God) prevented Mike Williams from going off and the Tampa Bay defense did just enough for me to clinch the victory. Now the problem is I have Brandon Marshall and Daniel Thomas on a team quarterbacked by some combination of Sage Rosenfels and Matt Moore.

Kansas City (+2.5) at Indianapolis

After last week's second straight primetime game for the Colts, I checked the schedule hoping (praying?) this would be the last time we get them on national TV. It's not. Indianapolis will travel to New Orleans for the Week 7 Sunday night game. (And in case you were wondering, the Chiefs make two appearances on Monday night in the coming weeks; Week 8 and Week 10).

Philadelphia (-3) at Buffalo

One of these weeks, the Eagles have to fire on all cylinders and put together a good game, right? Right?

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-3)

I was all set to pounce on Tennessee once the spreads came out and I saw the Titans open as 6.5 point underdogs. Then the spread dropped as the week went on, all the way down to its current number at three, which is too low to take a Kenny Britt-less Titans team.

Seattle at New York Giants (-10)

Usually when I see the words "Seattle at," I take the other team unless the Seahawks are playing another hopeless NFC West squad. Oh and by the way, we're now one month away from the Giants being 6-1 as they head to New England.

San Diego (-3.5) at Denver

Nothing screams "Trap!" more than the fact that the Chargers are favored by just more than a field goal against the Broncos. We'll come back to this pick Monday morning and I'll think to myself how I got suckered in.

New York Jets at New England (-7.5)

"Can the Jets really play three bad games in a row?" going up against "The Patriots are out for blood after last year's home playoff loss."

Tampa Bay (+3) at San Francisco

Alex Smith giving three points against a competent NFL team is usually not a good idea. (I know, I know, the Bucs pass defense is awful).

Green Bay at Atlanta (+6.5)
Chicago at Detroit (-5.5)

Two things: 1.) Imagine if this Atlanta-Green Bay game was at Lambeau Field. As 6.5 point favorites on the road, this means the Packers would be 12.5 point home favorites against last year's No. 1 NFC team in Week 5. Amazing. 2.) There's a Monday night football game in Detroit!

Enjoy the games! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

October 2, 2011

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 26-19-3          Last Week: 9-7


All lines courtesy of the New York Post


Detroit (+2.5) at Dallas

My fourth consecutive week selecting the Detroit Lions! (Waiting for lightning to strike).

Pittsburgh at Houston (-4)

I'm not going to get suckered into taking Pittsburgh and the points here. You hear me? No chance!

New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville

Although I hate taking road favorites of at least a touchdown, I would most likely have my head examined had I taken Jacksonville for a third straight week. (Still confused how they didn't cover last week).

Carolina (+6.5) at Chicago

The good news for Carolina is that thanks to Cam Newton, Steve Smith has decided to try again. On the other side, Jay Cutler's body language is getting progressively worse every Sunday.

Minnesota (-2.5) at Kansas City

A perfect spot for my Week 3 fantasy football recap! I lost by 12 points to drop to 2-1 last week after receiving bad performances from Frank Gore and A.J. Green and playing against Rob Gronkowski. Although I'm at 2-1, it really feels like I'm 0-3 and on the Titanic post-iceberg.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Buffalo

I, too, want to live in a world where the Buffalo Bills are undefeated in October. And I'm rooting for that to happen (just not by more than a field goal).

Tennessee (pick) at Cleveland

The winner of this game will be 3-1 and stand at the top of the list for prematurely raising the hopes of its city.

Washington at St. Louis (+2.5)

This is an important game for both teams: The Redskins are trying to prove their a legitimate playoff contender, while the Rams have to pick up a win to not fall too far behind in the division race before they start playing NFC West opponents.

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9.5)

With Frank Gore banged up and likely to be limited, I see San Francisco turning to Alex Smith to try and win it the game, which could lead to him continuing his career-long trend of hitting the open outside linebacker.

Seattle at Atlanta (-5)

The home field advantage can only do so many things for the Seahawks, and one of those isn't helping them cover the spread against a non-NFC West football team.

Miami (+7.5) at San Diego

Daniel Thomas is out, meaning the San Diego defense is likely to tee off on the turnover prone Chad Henne. The Chargers have played close in their first three games, meaning there's no better time than now for a blowout win with Philip Rivers bouncing back. No chance Miami stays within a touchdown; absolutely none.

Denver at Green Bay (-12.5)

Betting against Green Bay right now would be comparable to setting your money on fire, so I'll side with the Packers at home.

New England (-5) at Oakland

The Raiders have been really exciting to watch, but aren't we due for a week when Jason Campbell turns in a Washington-like performance?

New York Giants (-1.5) at Arizona

If the pass-rushing Giants can't disrupt Kevin Kolb all day this afternoon, I'll have felt like my whole life has been a lie.

New York Jets (+3.5) at Baltimore

Matchups like this are why I love primetime football!

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-10)

Matchups like this are why I hate primetime football!

Enjoy the games! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

September 25, 2011

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 17-12-3        Last Week: 8-6-2


All lines courtesy of the New York Post


San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5)

By playing Frank Gore at running back, A.J. Green at flex and using the Bengals as my defense, I'm embarrassed to admit how closely I'll be tracking a game between the 49ers and Bengals.

New England (-7.5) at Buffalo

With us not being able to use the "Never pick against Peyton Manning at night," reasoning this season, I'm in favor of adopting "Never bet against Tom Brady," as the official gambling motto for 2011.

Houston (+4) at New Orleans

In order for this pick to work, this means Houston has to play well three straight weeks in a row. It has to happen one of these years, right? Right?

Miami (+2.5) at Cleveland

This game seems to be the perfect space to discuss my Week 2 fantasy matchup. If you haven't read the last two weeks, here's my team (12-team PPR)
QB- Eli Manning
RB- Frank Gore, Jahvid Best
WR- Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall
TE- Jason Witten
FLEX- Mario Manningham

I was well on my way to a 2-0 start, until Tony Gonzalez randomly went for 7-83-2 to put me down 23.90 heading into Monday's matchup between the Rams and Giants.

Towards the end of the first half, Manning threw a perfect pass down the left sideline to Manningham. Easy catch. Easy touchdown. 2-0 record.

But instead of catching the ball, Manningham bobbled it, fell to the ground (made the catch) and in the process concussed himself and knocked himself from the game. Unbelievable.

So in the span of three seconds, I went from winning my week to having my player knock himself out of the game by banging his head against the turf to eventually losing 155-90-155.70. Worst. Loss. Ever.

Or was it?

Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota

Every Sunday from 3:00 p.m. to 3:45 p.m. I'm in a meeting with no Internet access. On Sunday afternoons, I think the only thing worse than this would be being forced to watch the WNBA Game of the Week.

Last week, I left thinking I had clearly got suckered into taking Tampa Bay and the points in Minnesota, only to return to see the Vikings had blown a 10-point lead with less than 10 minutes left. And with that, Detroit is the pick!

Denver (+6.5) at Tennessee

Perfect! An opportunity to continue my Week 2 fantasy story!

So Tuesday and Wednesday I'm irate that I had just lost by 0.2.

At around 1:00 a.m. Thursday morning, I logedg onto my team page to check out any notes on my players, to read the following on Manning's player page:

Manning got 23 yards added to his season total Wednesday when receiver Hakeem Nicks was credited with a 23-yard catch in Monday night's game against the Rams.

After reading that sentence, I think I was the happiest I've ever been in my life. (I, too, recognize how sad that is).

Did I tell the now-losing owner how I've never seen that happen before, and how I felt bad that he had to deal with a stat-corrected loss? Absolutely not! Instead, taunting texts/emails were sent!

Wow. 155.90-155.70 loss to a 156.62-155.70 stat-corrected win. 2-0. Best. win. ever.

New York Giants (+8) at Philadelphia

Me: I need a starting quarterback for this week.
Friend: How about you stick with Eli?
Me (Dr. Evil voice): How about nooooo?

New York Jets at Oakland (+3.5) 

Bill Simmons is using Matthew Stafford If He Stays Healthy as the quarterback's name in all his columns. This would also work for Oakland: The Oakland Raiders If They Don't Commit Dumb Penalties.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago

When one quarterback doesn't know if he'll be able to survive the 2011 season, I tend to take the other team.

Atlanta (+1.5) at Tampa Bay

Amazing that we were one Michael Vick injury and one fourth-quarter collapse away from this being a must-win game between two 0-2 teams.


Jacksonville (+3.5) at Carolina
Arizona at Seattle (+3.5)
Kansas City (+14.5) at San Diego

When it's around 8:00 p.m. Sunday night and I'm contemplating jumping out my third-floor window, it will most likely be because of my three selections in these games

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Don't worry Rams fans, you'll be playing each team in the NFC West twice soon enough.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis

My God.

Washington (+6.5) at Dallas

In the decision between Rex Grossman going up against a blitzing, competent defense and a starting quarterback with a punctured lung, I'll go with Grossman.

By the way, he'll be my starting quarterback as I look to go 3-0. So if you don't hear from me on Tuesday, you'll know why.

Enjoy the games!













Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

September 18, 2011

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 9-6-1          Last Week: 9-6-1

All lines courtesy of the New York Post

Oakland at Buffalo (-3)

In these situations, I usually try to take the team who didn't have to play the Week 1 late Monday night game and then travel over 2,500 miles for a 1:00 p.m. kickoff.

Jacksonville (+9.5) at New York Jets

Trust me, the last thing this is is an endorsement of the third McCown brother and the 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars. Instead, it's a feeling that Jacksonville keeps it close with a team that always is in tight games.

Kansas City at Detroit (-8)

The only way to celebrate the Lions being the biggest favorites they've been in over a decade is by picking them to cover as the biggest favorites they've been in over a decade!

Arizona at Washington (-3.5)

Washington: You make fun of the Redskins all year, and now you're taking us as 3.5 favorites? What's up with that, Tyler?
Tyler: Settle down, Washington. I liked what I saw on Sunday, and if Cam Newton could throw for over 400 yards on the road at Arizona, I'll take my chances with Grossman in a 1:00 p.m. start. No hard feelings?
Washington: No hard feelings.
Tyler: Thanks. I love your city by the way.

Chicago (+6.5) at New Orleans

Really wish I could watch this game to get a stronger sense of these two teams, especially the Bears. Aside from Baltimore-Pittsburgh, Chicago's 30-12 victory over Atlanta was the most eye-opening score from Sunday.

Baltimore at Tennessee (+6)

There's nothing like Chris Johnson getting nine carries last week, Mike Munchak getting killed in the media for it and then me looking at my fantasy schedule and seeing Johnson on my opponent's team for Week 2.

Green Bay (-10) at Carolina

I'm going to go ahead and say Cam Newton will have a little bit more trouble with the Green Bay defense than he had with Arizona in his debut.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-14)

Tarvaris Jackson. At Pittsburgh. Yep, that's about all I need to know here. And with this unofficially being the most popular pick in suicide pool history, I think pool participants would actually commit suicide if Seattle won this game.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Minnesota

Not if, but when I complain about all the bad beats I've had this year at the end of the season, please remind me that I took Green Bay, Minnesota and San Francisco in Week 1.

Cleveland (-2) at Indianapolis

I think it was around 1:40 p.m. last week that I decided to concede the Indianapolis-Houston game; a new personal record!

San Diego (+7) at New England

My favorite part from last Monday's Dolphins-Patriots game: Leading 31-17 in the 4th quarter from his own one, every coach either runs (95 percent likely) or calls play action. Instead, Bill Belichick says screw it, and calls for a shotgun five wide receiver streak to Wes Welker that goes for a 99-yard touchdown. Too funny.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Denver

I could care less about this game, so why not use this space to recap my fantasy football week? My team in my main league started off 1-0, thanks to my Week 1 opponent having to replace the injured Arian Foster and Peyton Manning with backups. Will I take the victory, even though his top two players were out? Your damn right I will! Here's my roster in that league (12-team, PPR scoring):

Eli Manning
Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall
Frank Gore, Jahvid Best
Jason Witten
Mario Manningham at the flex position.

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco
Houston (-3) at Miami

Two similar situations, and I'm a little surprised the spreads aren't higher in both cases. The Cowboys took a 24-10 lead in the 4th quarter against the Jets. Now, they're only favored by three against an NFC West team? The Texans took care of business, and now take on the Dolphins, who just gave up over 600 yards of offense. Because I don't think either San Francisco or Miami can win, I thought they'd be getting at least 3.5.

Philadelphia (-2.5) at Atlanta

I know Matt Ryan doesn't lose at home. I know taking the Falcons as an underdog in the Georgia Dome seems like a no-brainer. But I still can't get the picture out of my head of Green Bay trouncing the Falcons in Atlanta in last year's playoffs, and then there's last week's 30-12 road loss in Chicago.

St. Louis at New York Giants (-6)

The injury-depleted Giants, coming off a 28-14 loss to the Redskins, take on the injury-depleted Rams, coming off a 31-13 loss to the Eagles, in an arms race to see which team can hold off potentially crippling injuries the longest.

Enjoy the games!

















Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

September 8, 2011

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Last NFL season started off with the New Orleans Saints defeating the Minnesota Vikings 14-9 in the Superdome. The spread I was using for that game was 4.5, and a Ryan Longwell blocked extra point cost me the cover. Rather than put a bullet through my head, I picked 16 more weeks worth of games and struggled to a below .500 record. Here's to a better 2011!

All lines courtesy of the New York Post

New Orleans at Green Bay (-4.5)

Really looking forward to this opener, but I'd like to use this space to welcome one of my friends to the world of picking games against the spread. Last year, if the Packers made a field goal to extend their lead from three to six, he'd be thinking of how the Saints now need a touchdown to win. His thought process when they do that tonight: "Green Bay's covering!"

Tennessee (+1.5) at Jacksonville

I have one rule when it comes to picking these games: Never ever give points when one of the McCown brothers is the starting quarterback.

Buffalo (+6.5) at Kansas City

Another year, and another NFL season of low expectations for the Bills! But with those low expectations can come numerous backdoor covers throughout the season, perhaps starting this Sunday.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

It was fun tracking this point spread change as the preseason wore on and people started falling in love with the Lions. It went from Tampa Bay by 3.5, and swung 2.5 points all the way down to the Bucs by 1. (And yes, I too recognize how sad it is that I find this interesting).

Atlanta (-3) at Chicago

I have zero confidence in the Bears/Jay Cutler this year.

Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5)

The first NFL Sunday of 2011 starts with the Eagles at the Rams on Fox. I'll get to watch half of this (and all other 1 p.m. games), before I head over to our student newspaper office from 2:30-8:00 and read stories about our women's soccer team instead of watch the NFL.

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Very few things in the world are scarier than saying, "I'll take the 38-year-old Kerry Collins-led Colts on the road."

Cincinnati (+7) at Cleveland

Actually, I've found something scarier: "I'll take the Andy Dalton-led and Marvin Lewis-coached Bengals at the Dawg Pound."

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-1.5)

Leaning towards Baltimore here and we know this will be a close game, so I'd like to use this space to rank three of the great inventions of our time:

1.) Playing 15 games a week on Sundays

2.) The remote control

3.) Creating point spreads for those 15 games.

Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5)

Our first look at Tarvaris Jackson in a Seattle uniform!

New York Giants (-3) at Washington

The Giants are missing a lot of players from their defense, but I'm surprised a lot of people are leaning Washington on this game. Rex Grossman is the starting quarterback. You hear me? Rex Grossman!

Carolina (+7) at Arizona

Because Larry Fitzgerald is my No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, I'll be forced to track 16 of Arizona's 17 games in 2011. And I'm not sure if that's a good thing.

Minnesota (+9.5) at San Diego

The Chargers have been among the most talented teams for a couple of years now. Many playoff failures later, and somehow, Norv Turner is still the head coach.

Dallas (+5) at New York Jets

I don't think there's any team I'm more interested this season than Dallas. How will the offensive line gel? How will the team play in a full season under Jason Garrett? Should I have drafted Felix Jones over Jahvid Best to save me the frustration of when Best misses 6 games this year?

Miami at New England (-7)
Oakland at Denver (-3)

Is anyone else in favor of extending the Monday night doubleheader for 16 weeks and not just Week 1?

Enjoy the games! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

August 17, 2011

NFL Week 1 Schedule: Ranking the 16 Games

Three more Sundays. That's it. Just three more NFL-less Sundays to get through before a full slate of NFL games. Or, as I like to call it, all hell breaking loose.

Here's a ranking of the games I'm most interested in during Week 1.

16.) Cincinnati at Cleveland

How bad is the situation in Cincinnati? Carson Palmer would rather never play football again than suit up for the Bengals. NFL fans of the future will someday look back at 2009 and wonder how Cincinnati went 6-0 in its division. Cleveland's draft-day trade of Julio Jones (an explosive receiver the team hasn't had in what seems like forever) for five draft picks shows how far Mike Holmgren thinks the Browns are from competing.

15.) Seattle at San Francisco

Tarvaris Jackson vs. Alex Smith. Thankfully, I'll get to see this matchup again in December! If you're a 49ers fan who didn't pay attention to football during the lockout, your reaction to the 2011 lineup would probably be: "Wait a second, wait a second, another year of Alex Smith?!?"

14.) Tennessee at Jacksonville

I participate in pick 'em during the season, and really there's nothing scarier than looking at the week's slate and seeing some variation of the following: Tennessee-Houston, Tennessee-Jacksonville and Jacksonville-Houston. These games manage to feel like more of a toss-up than flipping a coin.

13.) New York at Washington

It seems like forever since the Redskins last beat the Giants; how long has it been? I'm glad you asked! The last time Washington won was in December 2007. You'd think that wasn't surprising because the Redskins are, well, the Redskins, but during that same time they've beaten Dallas and Philadelphia three times each.

12.) Carolina at Arizona

Two franchises, with two franchise-altering quarterbacks. In January 2012, we'll know if the Cardinals made the right move by gambling the team's next five years on Kevin Kolb, and we'll have a better idea of whether or not Cam Newton can be an NFL quarterback.

11.) Buffalo at Kansas City

Kansas City could be in for a down year in 2011 (no Charlie Weis, tougher schedule) while its Week 1 opponent has somehow been in a down year since 1999. The Bills are always good for a couple of fun games per year though: last year's notables included two overtime losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and scoring 35 straight points against the Bengals to win 49-31.

10.) Oakland at Denver

(Searching for a reason why this game isn't higher on the list). I don't think I've ever been more confident in a 4-12 team winning the season opener. I'd compare it to the second game of last year's doubleheader, when the Chiefs beat the Chargers in front of a crazed Monday night crowd. (Really, that's my only justification for ranking this No. 10).

9.) New England at Miami

If ever there was a time for Brandon Marshall to get in a public dispute and have the negative PR result in Miami being forced to trade him, it would be now.

8.) Minnesota at San Diego

Norv Turner is back in San Diego, which means this incredible American employment tale is now in its fifth year! Meanwhile, I think this is how it went down when the Redskins broke the news to Donovan McNabb he would be traded:

Mike Shanahan: I think we're going to trade you to Minnesota.
McNabb: YES!!!!

7.) Indianapolis at Houston

Yearly preseason analysis: "You know, I really think this is the year the Texans take away the AFC South from the Colts." (Really, this happens every year).

But if there were ever a time to take control of a division, after the Colts won it on fumes last year, it would be now for Houston.

6.) Atlanta at Chicago

I think everyone has that one player who, no matter what, they never have confidence in. For me, it's Jay Cutler. Really everytime I watch him, I feel like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. (And in this case, the "other shoe to drop" translates to a pass being taken 93-yards the other way).

But I'm mainly excited to see Julio Jones debut. I always love when a team is aggressive, knows it has a window of opportunity to win and goes out and gets the player it needs.


5.) Detroit at Tampa Bay

As an NFL fan, I'm hoping for one injury-free season from Matthew Stafford so we can see how good this Lions team is/can be.

These teams met in Week 16 last year, and in one of the great "What Ifs," it's amazing to think the Packers Super Bowl run could have never happened had the Bucs beaten the Lions then.

4.) Philadelphia at St. Louis

To review: Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Babin, Young, Jenkins, Brown, Smith, Harris and Hargrove. 

Even though I need to find out who Sam Bradford will be throwing the ball to this year, I like his chances in a division quarterbacked by Jackson, Smith and Kolb.

3.) Dallas at New York

The Jets replaced each of their losses at: deep threat (Plaxico Burress for Braylon Edwards), possession receiver (Derrick Mason for Jerricho Cotchery) and defensive end (Muhammad Wilkerson for Shaun Ellis). On offense, I'm ready to see if Shonn Greene can shine as the No. 1 RB.

The Cowboys open for the second straight season on Sunday night, after having a historically awful time on Sunday/Monday night last year. 

Week 1 Sunday night: Washington defeats Dallas, 13-7. A game-winning Dallas touchdown was negated by a holding penalty and the Redskins only touchdown came via a DeAngelo Hall 32-yard fumble return as the first half expired.

Week 7 Monday night: The Giants defeat Dallas, 41-35. The Cowboys jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. One broken clavicle later, the season was lost.

Week 9 Sunday night: Green Bay defeats Dallas, 45-7. The next day, Wade Phillips is fired.

Week 14 Sunday night: Philadelphia defeats Dallas, 30-27. The Jon Kitna-led Cowboys (3.5-point underdogs) played well in this game and, most importantly, covered the spread thanks to a backdoor cover!

2.) New Orleans at Green Bay

I really like the Saints this year, and it feels like the Packers are sliding under the radar, if ever it was possible for a defending champion to slide under the radar.

Anyway, never has a Thursday night opener had as much fantasy impact as this one. (Or, at least since Indianapolis-New Orleans in 2007). And really, when it comes down to it, isn't fantasy impact what's most important here?

1.) Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Ravens-Steelers and Patriots-Jets are 1A and 1B when it comes to NFL rivalries. With that said, it almost feels like it's a little bit too early to have this type of matchup. Three things for this game:

1.) It feels nothing like a game that should start at 1 p.m.
2.) Despite grabbing Ricky Williams, the Ravens are committed to using Ray Rice as a goal-line back. I've waited so long for this to happen. Even though he's not the prototypical short-yardage back in terms of height and weight, I love the move and think it will work out well.
3.) There's a 65 percent chance James Harrison is fined $10,000 for comments made following the game.

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August 3, 2011

With Madden 12 Release Date Approaching, Here Are Four Thoughts On The Game

While we always knew there would most likely be a 2011 NFL season, we couldn't say so for sure. What could we be sure of, though? That EA Sports would be producing "Madden 12," of course! As someone who has gotten to the point in franchise mode where every roster is filled with computer-generated players, here are four thoughts as the newest edition's release date approaches.

Improve Franchise Mode

Franchise mode was first introduced in "Madden 99," and it gave you the chance to become GM of your team for 15 years and do things like participate in the NFL draft, sign/re-sign free agents and trade players/have trades offered to you.

Hold on, you now had the ability to:
1.) Run an NFL Draft
2.) Sign/re-sign free agents
3.) Trade players/have trades offered to you

One more time:
1.) Run an NFL Draft
2.) Sign/re-sign free agents
3.) Trade players/have trades offered to you

This was a breakthrough for the game in 1998, so by now, you would think Franchise had become unhealthily addicting. Unfortunately, it hasn't. In fact, "Madden 11," barely had any tweaks/improvements from previous versions. But what gives me hope that a mode with so much potential will now be the game's most attractive option in "Madden 12" (outside of online play) is the reportedly vast overhaul EA developers have given it this season.

Bring Back Owner Mode

Owner mode was introduced in "Madden 2004," and was just what it sounds like. You took control of every aspect of a franchise, with the ability to do things such as relocate your team, build/upgrade your stadium and set the prices of tickets/merchandise/food, among other things. If you weren't able to turn a profit after three years, you were "fired" from your position.

A favorite of mine was using a team like the Lions and seeing if I could take over the mess Matt Millen created in the real world and fix it in the virtual world. Two things stand out from that:

1.) To give you a sense of the shape this franchise was in, here were the five highest paid Lions in that game (in descending order):
- Charles Rogers
- Joey Harrington
- Dre Bly
- Az-Zahir Hakim
- Ty Detmer (Detroit's then third-string quarterback)

Rogers/Harrington were on their rookie contracts, but is it a good sign when these are the five highest players on the team? ... No!!!!

2.) That I actually got out my old XBox and checked who the highest-paid players were for Detroit in "Madden 2004."

Anyway, I fully support the return of owner mode in any form. The pressure of "win in three years or you're out" was always a fun concept. Here are the three teams I would take over and try to virtually rebuild if it ever came back:

1.) Washington Redskins. The quarterback this year will be John Beck or Rex Grossman. My God.

2.) Cincinnati Bengals. Somehow, a team that would have also appeared had this list been written in 2004, appears in 2011.

3.) Buffalo Bills. It's almost hard to not have a franchise quarterback for this long.

Pressure-Packed Situations


These are the little things that would add a sense of realism to the game. Kind of like how in basketball games the controller vibrates when you're on the road and at the free-throw line. Each team's coach would have a different "clutch" rating. (The problem would be assigning this to new coaches. What would you do for first-year coaches like Tennessee's Mike Munchak or Cleveland's Pat Shurmur)?


Game Presentation

I loved how in last year's "Madden" there was a unique presentation for all 32 teams if you won the Super Bowl. For example, if Dallas won, Gus Johnson would mention how it's the Cowboys' sixth Super Bowl to tie them with the Steelers. Or, if the Browns won, Johnson would mention how a team from Cleveland won a professional sports championship, meaning there's a good chance the world will end.
There would be the Gatorade bath. The visit to the White House. The quarterback holding up the team jersey with President Obama.
But the problem is that every game other than the Super Bowl is treated exactly the same. When you play in the divisonal round of the playoffs, there is not even a single mention by the announcers that it is a playoff game. The pregame comments for a playoff game are the exact same as the pregame for a Week 3 game. Awful.

Well, Madden comes out in a month. I'm off to go figure out how I'm going to stop Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson in this year's version.

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July 15, 2011

Fantasy Football: Looking Back At Last Season

Late last week I received an email with the subject line "2011 Fantasy Football," which is clearly one of the top emails I can receive aside from one with the subject line "Volleyball Cancelled, No Student Broadcasters Needed." With the focus officially shifting to this year, I thought I would take one final look at the main team I managed last year. In Q-and-A format, of course!

How did your fantasy season end last year?

With two middle fingers squarely pointed at the TV, as I watched Ryan Mathews run for 120 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17 at Denver. Obviously, all fantasy leagues end in Week 16, but this is what I expected from him when I made a deal for him after Week 1. You know, as opposed to missing four games during the fantasy regular season, tallying more than 20 carries once and scoring two total TDs prior to Week 14.


Any particularly tough losses stand out?

I'm glad you asked! I hate listening to fantasy bad-beat stories, so if you'd like to skip this section, I completely understand. There's nothing like going into a Tuesday morning class and listening to someone tell me how T.O. caught two touchdowns Monday night, causing a four point loss. As crazy as this sounds, sometimes T.O. is going to catch two touchdown passes in a game. Anyway, here are my two worst defeats.

1.) Week 14

Two 6-6 teams going at it with a playoff berth on the line. It came down to Tom Brady. Basically, if he threw for three touchdowns (or 300+ yards and two TDs) on Monday Night against the Jets, I would be headed to the consolation bracket. And the words "headed to the consolation bracket" in fantasy terms is the equivalent of someone being told to "head over to the guillotine" in 18th century France.

I felt good, and I must have talked to every Jets fan friend I know and they assured me I'd be fine. And then the game started. Really, if there was ever a threat of me jumping off the sixth floor of my dorm, it was that night. Eliminated from the playoffs on the final day of the fantasy regular season. Jeez.

2.) Week 3

I had Greg Jennings on Monday night against the Bears, and my opponent's players were done. After Jennings caught two balls for 18 yards and a touchdown on Green Bay's opening drive, I was trailing by less than a point. All I needed was one reception (PPR League). Re-read those previous two sentences: All I needed was ONE reception from Green Bay's BEST receiver with 49 MINUTES and 31 SECONDS remaining in the game. But did it happen? Of course not. 

So you're going to write 800 words and not tell us your record or your team from last year? What's wrong with you?

Settle down, settle down. I finished 6-7, with the Brady Game knocking me out of the playoffs. Probably the most pain I've experienced in my life, which is kind of sad.

My team: QB- Flacco/Roethlisberger, RB- Ray Rice/Knowshown Moreno, WR- Greg Jennings/Calvin Johnson, TE- Dallas Clark (which became Kevin Boss), Flex- LeGarrette Blount. The reason why I was so angry is because this team could have done damage in the playoffs. It has to be in the Top 5 in Best Teams to Not Reach the Fantasy Playoffs, if anybody ranks things like that.


Did you check during the consolation playoffs?

(Fake laughing at a foolish question).

You mentioned the Ryan Mathews trade. Tell me more.

After my Week 1 loss, I was aggressively looking to deal. Not because I was panicking because I was already 15 percent of the way towards missing the playoffs, but because I had a perfect sell-high candidate: Matt Forte.

On an unrelated side note, I think fantasy football has reached the point where the scales are officially tipping in favor of luck over skill. Here's why:

- Unlike fantasy basketball and baseball, you have seven players, a kicker and a defense whose one-game performance determines one of 13 wins/losses. In the other two, you have a whole week to make adjustments/adds/drops with your roster over a 20-to-25 week season.

- In-game Injuries. Mathews was playing Jacksonville in Week 2, had 26 yards on five carries and 29 yards on two receptions in the first quarter and then came down with his high ankle sprain. With that one example, I'm down one running back and now playing 7-on-6 for the week.

- Everyone gets their rankings and information from the same sources, the same magazines, reads the same columns, reads about who a waiver claim should be put in for etc., so there isn't any advantage anymore to people who pay more attention.

Anyway, here was the trade: I gave up Matt Forte, LaDainian Tomlinson (name value) and Percy Harvin for Mathews (buy-low after his Week 1 opener) and Jennings. The receiving side was a plus, but with the Mathews injury making him essentially useless, I was screwed. And even though Tomlinson scored only once in the last 10 weeks, he had at least five catches in every week but one from Week 5-11. Huge for a PPR league. The worst part for me was that Mathews tried to rush his recovery, leading to a couple of eight and nine-carry games, before ending his season strong and finishing with a 4.3 YPC.

Here's to wishing you a Happy 2011 Fantasy Football Season -  To you as well! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

June 28, 2011

Some More Reasons Why I Like Sports

Bill Simmons originated this column idea in 2001, so I thought it would be fun to list some reasons of my own.


Draft Reactions

I've spent the past few days trying to decide which fanbase has the better reactions to its team's draft picks: the Knicks, or the Jets? The responses to Thursday's selection of Iman Shumpert were pretty good, but nothing compared to the outpouring from the 2006 Renaldo Balkman fiasco (taken one pick ahead of Rajon Rondo).

This, from Simmons' 2006 Draft Diary:

Stern: "The New York Knicks select ... Renaldo Balkman"

MSG Crowd: (Explodes in horror).

Stern (over the booing): "Renaldo is not here tonight."

Dan Patrick (anchoring the draft coverage): "And that's probably a good thing."

But then there's the Jets, and the video that gets played annually when they take the clock. I've seen it over and over again, but it gets me everytime!

Mike Tannenbaum's solid draft history has helped Jets fans cope with the Ghosts of NFL Drafts Past.

My favorite exchange from the video (comes at :35 mark):

Rozelle: "New York Jets first round selection: Fullback"

Rozelle: (Brilliantly pauses without saying the player's name, allowing Jets fans to think, "Wait a second, we took an effing fullback in the first round!?!?)

Crowd: "Ohhhhhhh Nooooooooooo!"

Rozelle (grinning): "Roger Vick, Texas A&M"

Crowd: (Stunned).


Foreigners at the NBA Draft

With the top of the draft stocked with international players (they made up four of the top seven picks) there was a feeling we would be treated to some funny moments, and we weren't disappointed. My two favorites:

1.) Mark Jones' post-draft interview with Jonas Valanciunas, the No. 5 pick:

Jones (desperately trying to save interview): "You told me that your game is a little bit like Chris Bosh...how is it like Chris Bosh?"

Valanciunas: "I don't know, I have not so strong body, so I don't know." "I can move fast, so I think like this."

2.) Fran Fraschilla's analysis of Bismack Biyombo, the No. 7 pick, when Fraschilla bluntly stated the future Bobcat doesn't have an offensive game and is "allegedly" 18 years old.

WNBA Opening Week


I kid, I kid.

Atmosphere of College Football Saturdays


Nothing gets me more excited to spend the next 12 hours watching football than hearing ESPN's College GameDay crew broadcasting live from a raucous, highly drunk college campus. I like college football for the following reason: Unlike with the NFL, I don't participate in office pools/regularly gamble on games/play high-stakes fantasy football when it comes to the college game. Therefore, my Saturdays are not spent rooting for 47 different things to happen, and I can actually enjoy the game.

Few things in sports beat a great build up for a highly anticipated game that lives up to expectations and produces an electric atmosphere. For me, the best example of this would be the 2005 USC (5-0, No. 1 in polls) vs. Notre Dame (4-1, No. 9 in polls) game in South Bend. That game had it all, and here's a list of  some things I remember that added to the plot/produced a great storyline/made that Saturday afternoon stand out.

- USC entered the game undefeated, and with Leinart back for his senior year, there was talk of this being the best college football team. Ever.

- Notre Dame was in the first year of the Charlie Weis era, and had defeated nationally ranked Pittsburgh and Michigan to open the season. His penchant for offensive play calling was showcased right off the bat: In the nationally telelvised ABC primetime season opener at Pitt, Weis' offense scored 35 points. In the first half. Now, he had two weeks to create a gameplan for the Trojans.

- Reports circulated the week of the game that Notre Dame was intentionally growing out the grass in Notre Dame Stadium in an effort to slow down Reggie Bush and the USC athletes.

- Notre Dame's Friday night pep rally was televised live on ESPNews.

- The Irish came out for warmups in their home blue jerseys, then switched to the green jerseys in the locker room prior to kickoff and sent the crowd into an absolute frenzy when they ran onto the field.

- A game that lived up to the hype in every way possible. 21-14 Notre Dame at halftime. 21-21 entering the fourth.

- A 4th-and-9, season-on-the-line completion by a quarterback who was running on fumes of his fumes at this point in the game. (I'll always remember Leinart not celebrating, but instead sitting on the bench and staring straight into the ground with his helmet still on after his game-winning quarterback sneak, physically and mentally drained).

- Simmons describes that play as Leinart's "I'm Keith Hernandez! Moment," and that's a spot on comparison. Look at it this way: By this time, Leinart had achieved golden boy status, and was basically saying, "Screw it. It's fourth down, and we're on the road in Notre Dame Stadium. I'm going to audible to a streak pattern and hit Jarrett deep down the sideline. Why? Because I'm Matt freakin Leinart! Even if it doesn't work, I'm taking one class and can have any girl in Southern California."

- The clock hitting zero. Notre Dame storming the field thinking they had won, only to have seconds put back on the clock.

- Pete Carroll franitcally calling for a spike, and Leinart deciding to go with the sneak. Stonewalled at first, he then twists and turns, aided by the "Bush Push." What a memorable game.

Sadly, because I announce fall sports for AU Athletics, for these past two years and the next two years, I'll have watched/will be watching American U volleyball matches and 0-0 soccer games instead of afternoon college football. (Shaking head).

Doc Emrick 


Nobody captures the feeling of playoff hockey like Emrick. Even if I'm on the computer and not paying attention to the game, all of a sudden I'll hear the following booming from my television and I'm compelled to look up: "A shottttttt.... and it's sent WIDE past an outstretched Luongo.... it's taken at the point and ANOTHER SHOT..... REBOUNDDD.... SAVE LUONGO!!" It's nearly impossible to take your eyes off the game when he's in the booth, as the next play sounds like it's the most exciting in the history of hockey. After a commercial break I feel like I'm drained, but his announcing style perfectly portrays the intensity of playoff hockey.



M7XNDSANNXWB

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