Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati
Andy Dalton has had enough games against the Buffalo's, Seattle's and Indianapolis' of the world en route to putting together one of the more unlikely eight-game stretches in the NFL. But luckily for me, facing an angry Pittsburgh defense after last week is his problem, not mine.
Denver at Kansas City (-3)
We'll find out if the Chiefs are the team that lost their first two games by a combined 79 points, shutout Oakland on the road and defeated San Diego on Monday night, or a classic AFC West team where everyone has no clue what's going to happen from week to week.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3)
Winnable game for Indianapolis, and at this point in the season, winnable games are the last thing Colts fans want to see.
Buffalo (+5.5) at Dallas
The Buffalo defense can't stop anyone. At all. Which is why this game sets up perfectly for a classic Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass with 40 seconds left to backdoor cover the spread.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Houston
Out-of-conference game on the road after three straight convincing wins against a team that needs a victory to stay in contention in the NFC. This is the annual, "Just when you think the Texans are really good, they remind you their the Texans with a mind-boggling loss" game.
Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5)
The chances Tennessee had to compete for an AFC playoff berth this year were lost when 1.) Kenny Britt was lost for the year. 2.) They blew a 17-7 halftime lead to Cincy at home. and 3.) Chris Johnson enters each game as either the second or third best running back on the field. Cam Newton continues to cover spreads here against the Titans at home.
Washington (+4) at Miami
John Beck might not be able to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, as evidenced by Roy Helu breaking the team's single-game franchise record for receptions last week, but that won't matter. Washington turns back to Rex Grossman, which is enough for them to cover this surprisingly high spread against a team that won its first game in November.
New Orleans (pick) at Atlanta
If the Falcons are going to take a step back this year (as expected), and the Saints are going to emerge as the clear top team in the NFC South (as expected), New Orleans finds a way to get this game on the road.
St. Louis (+2.5) at Cleveland
Two of my favorite teams to pick against during the 2011 season going against each other. The Rams make up for their amazingly awful loss last week (field goal blocked at end of regulation, lose by six in overtime after being 3.5-point underdogs at Arizona) with a cover here.
Arizona at Philadelphia (-14)
You see the 14-point spread and you want to take Arizona on the road against Philly. But think of how you're going to feel when the game is headed into the 4th quarter, the Eagles are up 27-7 and you need John Skelton to engineer an 80-yard touchdown drive.
Seattle at Baltimore (-6.5)
After letdowns against Tennessee and Jacksonville, and more recently an almost disastrous loss to Arizona, there's no way Baltimore doesn't get up for this game. And if the Bengals and a rookie quarterback beat the Seahawks 34-12 earlier this year in Seattle, Baltimore should be able to do the same.
Detroit at Chicago (-3)
Game that could either go one of two ways: Chicago avenges its earlier loss to Detroit on Monday night, or Detroit wins with the Bears coming off a short week after the Monday night win at Philly.
New York Giants at San Francisco (-3.5)
For the past seven years, I never thought I'd be laying more than three points with an Alex Smith-quarterbacked team against one of the better teams in the NFC.
New England at New York Jets (-2)
Smart move by NBC to put the top two rivalries in the league on Sunday night in back-to-back weeks. And even though New England has lost two straight, the home team has usually held serve in this game.
Minnesota at Green Bay (-13)
Rather than watch Aaron Rodgers cut up the Minnesota secondary on Monday night, I'll be refereeing intramural basketball games for the night. Really, there is nothing worse.
