November 27, 2011

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 76-81-6          Last Week: 5-7-2          This Week: 1-2

Buffalo at New York Jets (-8.5)

An angry Jets defense following a tough Thursday night loss at Denver. Thankfully, that's Ryan Fitzpatrick's problem to deal with, and not mine. 
And even Isiah Thomas wouldn't have rewarded Fitzpatrick with a contract extension seven weeks into the season. (You thought I would end this blurb without taking a shot at the Fitzpatrick contract? No chance!).

Minnesota at Atlanta (-9.5)

Christian Ponder, Toby Gerhart and a less-than-100 percent Percy Harvin: Perfect for covering a spread like this in college, but not so much in the Georgia Dome against an Atlanta team getting back Julio Jones.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Cincinnati 

Speaking of Julio Jones, wouldn't he look great right now in a Browns uniform? An electric receiver with big-play capability is just what this franchise needs. Wait a second, you're telling me they had the chance to draft him, and then traded out of the spot? What the #$%^&!!! 
(Anyway, how ridiculous does that Peyton Hillis Madden cover look? Very ridiculous, I say).

Houston (-3.5) at Jacksonville

The fact that Matt Leinart is making his first career start for Houston may be enough to make you lean towards Jacksonville. Until of course, you remember that Blaine Gabbert is really, really bad at playing quarterback.

Chicago (+3.5) at Oakland

I love this pick as much as you can love a pick in which Caleb Haine will be your starting quarterback. But without Jay Cutler, the Bears defense puts forth an inspired effort while Carson Palmer puts forth a Palmerian effort.

Arizona (+3) at St. Louis

Thankfully, this game is being played at 1 p.m., so its overall suckiness will be hidden among the six other early-afternoon games. 

Washington at Seattle (-3.5)

This game could go one of two ways: Rex Grossman and the Redskins gave their all in last Sunday's game against the Cowboys, and head out to the Great Northwest to get slaughtered in front of a raucous home crowd. Or, the Seahawks play like they did against the Bengals earlier this season at home, and this game is close or the Redskins pull out the win. Whichever way this game goes, I don't think anyone cares (except, of course, for those picking said game).

Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis
Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Tennessee

Carolina and Tennessee were involved in two games last week that make us remember how fun it is to bet on NFL games pick games against the spread for fun.

Carolina at Detroit: The Panthers took a 24-7 lead in the 2nd quarter, and were up 27-14 at halftime. With less than five minutes to go, they scored to tie the game at 35 (putting them up 42.5-35 including the spread.) Re-read that sentence again. Somehow, the Panthers still managed to not cover.

Tennessee at Atlanta: The Falcons took a 23-3 lead with three minutes left in the third quarter following a Matt Bryant short field goal. What followed was a Jake Locker 40-yard touchdown pass, a Michael Turner fumble at the Titans' 7-yard line and an improbable Tennesee conversion on 4th-and-17 that led to a 23-17 final and a push. 

New England at Philadelphia (+3.5)

A pick made strictly from a who needs the game more standpoint. Even after the Jets dismantle the Bills earlier in the day, a New England loss keeps them two games up on the Jets with this remaining schedule: Indy, @ Denver, @ Washington, Miami and Buffalo. Tough to do two weeks in a row, but the Eagles post another solid showing in an underdog role at home. (And how high will next week's spread be for Colts-Patriots in New England?!?)

Denver (+6.5) at San Diego

With a win here and an Oakland home loss to Chicago, a quarterback that is incapable of figuring out  the forward pass will be leading a team atop the AFC West in the NFL in 2011.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-10.5)

Another night game, another week of Tyler Palko in primetime!

New York Giants at New Orleans (-7)

No team has been more unlucky than the Giants when it comes to their two intraconference games on this year's schedule. By finishing 2nd in the NFC East last season, they get the 2nd place team in the NFC South at one of the league's toughest venues, and then they're home to the 2nd place team in the NFC North that hasn't lost since Week 15 in 2010.



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November 20, 2011

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 70-73-4          Last Week: 7-9          This Week: 0-1

Dallas (-7.5) at Washington

Week 11 already. It goes by too fast. Despite starting off 3-1 this season, the Redskins have returned to their Redskinian ways by losing their last five in a row, and that will continue at a FedEx Field filled with Dallas fans Sunday.


Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-14)

The Bucs continue their quest to get blown out by at least five teams this year when their defense takes on Aaron Rodgers. (Although it was around this time that the '07 Patriots began to slow down).


Buffalo (+2) at Miami

Much to the chagrin of Dolphins fans, Miami has won two straight and effectively taken itself out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, leading many to believe it could be the first time in history a fanbase has called for its coach to be fired after winning games.


Oakland (pick) at Minnesota

I think I've picked Oakland more times this year than in the past three years combined, and despite the obvious signs of a trap game, I'll (very reluctantly) take the Raiders again.


Carolina (+7) at Detroit

Two covering machines that haven't been getting it done as the season has wore on. After both teams started 5-0 against the spread, the Lions and Panthers are just 1-3 in their last four. (Sad that it has come to looking at teams' record against the spread rather than their actual record).

Jacksonville (+1) at Cleveland

You would think that in a week with the four NFC West teams playing each other, the worst game of the week would involve those teams. But Cleveland has surpassed the NFC West in terms of general suckiness and unwatchableness this season.

Cincinnati (+7) at Baltimore

One week after leading a game-winning late drive at Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco reminds you that one of the rules in the NFL is never to trust him, and he proved that point last week in Seattle.

Arizona at San Francisco (-9.5)
Seattle at St. Louis (-2.5)

NFC West: Tyler, you've been taking a lot of shots at our division this year, did you see what we did last week?
Tyler: (Looks down)
NFC West: All four of our teams won on Sunday. You hear me? All four teams!!
Tyler: (Searching for joke about the division).

San Diego at Chicago (-3.5)

San Diego heading to Soldier Field without its offensive line and a soft defense is usually not a good idea. The only thing stopping this cover is a classic Jay Cutler interception-returned-for-touchdown game.

Tennessee (+6) at Atlanta

One of the toughest teams to figure out this year is Tennessee, which is why I'll opt not to spend this 75-word blurb trying to figure them out.

Philadelphia (+6) at New York Giants

After last season's game, the Giants would want nothing more than to drive a stake through the heart of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. But the Giants haven't covered these types of spreads all year, and the Eagles should get up for this one game.

Kansas City at New England (-14.5)

Two words: Tyler Palko. Some more words: Another Monday night, another uninteresting game.

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November 13, 2011

NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 63-64-4          Last Week: 7-7          This Week: 0-1

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati

Andy Dalton has had enough games against the Buffalo's, Seattle's and Indianapolis' of the world en route to putting together one of the more unlikely eight-game stretches in the NFL. But luckily for me, facing an angry Pittsburgh defense after last week is his problem, not mine.

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

We'll find out if the Chiefs are the team that lost their first two games by a combined 79 points, shutout Oakland on the road and defeated San Diego on Monday night, or a classic AFC West team where everyone has no clue what's going to happen from week to week.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3)

Winnable game for Indianapolis, and at this point in the season, winnable games are the last thing Colts fans want to see.

Buffalo (+5.5) at Dallas

The Buffalo defense can't stop anyone. At all. Which is why this game sets up perfectly for a classic Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass with 40 seconds left to backdoor cover the spread.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at Houston

Out-of-conference game on the road after three straight convincing wins against a team that needs a victory to stay in contention in the NFC. This is the annual, "Just when you think the Texans are really good, they remind you their the Texans with a mind-boggling loss" game.

Tennessee at Carolina (-3.5)

The chances Tennessee had to compete for an AFC playoff berth this year were lost when 1.) Kenny Britt was lost for the year. 2.) They blew a 17-7 halftime lead to Cincy at home. and 3.) Chris Johnson enters each game as either the second or third best running back on the field. Cam Newton continues to cover spreads here against the Titans at home.

Washington (+4) at Miami

John Beck might not be able to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, as evidenced by Roy Helu breaking the team's single-game franchise record for receptions last week, but that won't matter. Washington turns back to Rex Grossman, which is enough for them to cover this surprisingly high spread against a team that won its first game in November.

New Orleans (pick) at Atlanta

If the Falcons are going to take a step back this year (as expected), and the Saints are going to emerge as the clear top team in the NFC South (as expected), New Orleans finds a way to get this game on the road.

St. Louis (+2.5) at Cleveland

Two of my favorite teams to pick against during the 2011 season going against each other. The Rams make up for their amazingly awful loss last week (field goal blocked at end of regulation, lose by six in overtime after being 3.5-point underdogs at Arizona) with a cover here.

Arizona at Philadelphia (-14)

You see the 14-point spread and you want to take Arizona on the road against Philly. But think of how you're going to feel when the game is headed into the 4th quarter, the Eagles are up 27-7 and you need John Skelton to engineer an 80-yard touchdown drive.

Seattle at Baltimore (-6.5)

After letdowns against Tennessee and Jacksonville, and more recently an almost disastrous loss to Arizona, there's no way Baltimore doesn't get up for this game. And if the Bengals and a rookie quarterback beat the Seahawks 34-12 earlier this year in Seattle, Baltimore should be able to do the same.

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Game that could either go one of two ways: Chicago avenges its earlier loss to Detroit on Monday night, or Detroit wins with the Bears coming off a short week after the Monday night win at Philly.

New York Giants at San Francisco (-3.5)

For the past seven years, I never thought I'd be laying more than three points with an Alex Smith-quarterbacked team against one of the better teams in the NFC.

New England at New York Jets (-2)

Smart move by NBC to put the top two rivalries in the league on Sunday night in back-to-back weeks. And even though New England has lost two straight, the home team has usually held serve in this game.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-13)

Rather than watch Aaron Rodgers cut up the Minnesota secondary on Monday night, I'll be refereeing intramural basketball games for the night. Really, there is nothing worse. Follow TylerTomea on Twitter

November 5, 2011

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 56-56-4          Last Week: 3-10

All lines courtesy of the New York Post

Atlanta (-7) at Indianapolis

After a strong start to the season, my poor past couple of weeks picking games has completely rattled me, rendering me as confused as Curtis Painter in the pocket. Zing! Getting back on track starts with going against the Colts, who are slowly becoming my favorite team to pick against in 2011.

Washington at San Francisco (-3.5)

The Redskins playing a 6-1 team and getting only 3.5 after having just been shut out 23-0 against one of the league's worst defenses? That's not fishy at all! But a trap game needs two components, with one of those being an actual competent NFL team, which the Redskins are not.

Miami at Kansas City (-4)

Trap game, Part II. But with Indianapolis almost certainly losing to Atlanta, the Dolphins can't fool around here. They need to be down by at least 10 heading into the fourth.

New York Jets (+2) at Buffalo

My continued resistance to picking the Bills is justified this week as the Jets begin an important three-game stretch (@ BUF, vs. NE, @ DEN) with a win in Buffalo. Either a victory, or a loss by two points or less.

Cleveland at Houston (-10.5)

Despite Houston's best efforts earlier this year to stay on track for an 8-8 season, the schedule (and the general suckiness of their division) has set up perfectly for the Texans. Now, in comes one of the more boring teams in recent NFL history.

Seattle at Dallas (-11.5)

Cowboys Ring of Honor Ceremony. Dallas just got blown out on national television. Seattle suffered a bad home loss to Cincy. As Cousin Sal from Jimmy Kimmel Live! says: There is no better time for a classically bad Seahawkian performance!

Tampa Bay (+8) at New Orleans

This is what I like to call a "game I'd like to spend my Sunday watching instead of sitting in the student newspaper office and reading about how our swimming and diving team did this weekend" game.

St. Louis (+3) at Arizona

I like the Rams. (As I try to adopt a new goal of typing as little as possible when it comes to two NFC West teams squaring off).

New York Giants (+9) at New England

I think this will play out similar to the Cowboys-Patriots game from earlier this season. Now that that's over, I'm off to see more replays of the Tyree catch!

Green Bay (-5.5) at San Diego

The way this season is going for Norv Turner, it looks like we're (finally) headed for the end of one of the great American employment stories of all-time. The cycle of continuously underachieving, but then still managing to be brought back, ends the week after San Diego's season.

Denver at Oakland (-7)

Unless Carson Palmer provides most of the Denver offense (which is very possible), the Raiders should be able to cover this touchdown at home.

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-3)

The 5-2 Bengals with a chance to take a share of the AFC North lead heading into Week 10 with a victory here: Who would've known!?!

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)

That sound you heard was NBC executives breathing a sigh of relief for this always close game coming after Dallas-Philadelphia (34-7), Indianapolis-New Orleans (62-7) and Minnesota-Chicago (39-10).

Chicago (+7.5) at Philadelphia

The backdoor cover the Bears didn't get earlier this year on Monday night against Detroit prepared them on how to properly execute the backdoor cover for this game, as Chicago scores a "meaningless" touchdown late. Follow TylerTomea on Twitter