Carolina (+6.5) at Houston
Brutal start to the bowl season, going 1-2 through the first three games (straight-up picks, no confidence points). Utah State gave up a 23-10 lead in the middle game, while San Diego State shows us how to lose a game in 50 seconds in the nightcap.
It's only fair then that, with his team trailing by 13 points with 35 seconds remaining, Cam Newton trots into the endzone untouched to make amends for yesterday's disaster.
Washington at New York Giants (-7)
No Osi? Possibly no Justin Tuck? No problem! (OK, slight problem, but it sounded better if I wrote it that way). Washington coming into the Meadowlands sets up a perfect stress free game for Giants fans after Miles Austin and the Cowboys Stadium lights kept their season alive last week.
Green Bay (-14) at Kansas City
This could be the last opportunity to pick the Packers at full strength before the playoffs come around. And then I ask you this: If Kyle Orton couldn't consistently throw properly with 10 good fingers, how is he going to do it with nine?
New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota
When a high-powered offense comes into Minnesota, and reports surface during the week that a horrible Vikings secondary has been ignoring defensive play calls this season, I tend to side with the high-powered offense.
Seattle (+3.5) at Chicago
My suggestion: Watch any and all of Devin Hester's punt returns, then immediately switch this game off before either offense takes the field. Chicago: 3, Seattle: 0
Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis
Two inspired 4th quarter efforts in recent weeks by Indianapolis. The Colts trailed 31-3 at New England and lost 31-24, then scored a touchdown on the last play of the game to cover last week in Baltimore. There's no way Indianapolis gets up for this week's
Cincinnati (-6.5) at St. Louis
When I wrote last week to take the Bengals against the Texans because this isn't your typical Cincinnati team filled with ex-convicts and felons, I completely forgot Pacman Jones was on the team! How could I!?!? Of course, Pacman's penalty essentially cost Cincy the victory. But no worries in this game, as 10 boneheaded plays from the Pacman can't make up for the Rams' overall incompetence.
Miami (-1.5) at Buffalo
This line might seem a little off until you remember Buffalo already buried itself at 1:00 p.m. EST on Nov. 13 in Dallas.
Detroit (-1) at Oakland
All we'll need is Kevin Smith's ankles to hold up for three quarters here, and we should be good. Also, the following prop needs to be listed in some sportsbook somewhere (if it's not already): Will there be a penalty on the kickoff? YES (+270) NO (-230) OFFSETTING PENALTIES (+1200).
Cleveland (+7) at Arizona
Moving on...
New England (-6) at Denver
Similar to the well-known rule of never taking Dallas in Arizona is the rule of never taking Tom Brady in Denver. But that ruled applied at a time when Denver's receivers were catching footballs that were actually spiraling towards them.
New York Jets at Philadelphia (-2.5)
Baltimore at San Diego (+2.5)
These games can go one of two ways, and we'll know pretty early on: Either both Philly and San Diego fight for 60 minutes and put forth inspired efforts, or they take a cue from Tampa Bay on Saturday and mail it in after the first commercial break. I'm hoping (praying?) for the former, and not the latter.
Pittsburgh (+1.5) at San Francisco
It looks like Ben Roethlisberger will play, and Roethlisberger on one leg, somehow, is still 75 percent better than Alex Smith on two.
