September 8, 2011

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Last NFL season started off with the New Orleans Saints defeating the Minnesota Vikings 14-9 in the Superdome. The spread I was using for that game was 4.5, and a Ryan Longwell blocked extra point cost me the cover. Rather than put a bullet through my head, I picked 16 more weeks worth of games and struggled to a below .500 record. Here's to a better 2011!

All lines courtesy of the New York Post

New Orleans at Green Bay (-4.5)

Really looking forward to this opener, but I'd like to use this space to welcome one of my friends to the world of picking games against the spread. Last year, if the Packers made a field goal to extend their lead from three to six, he'd be thinking of how the Saints now need a touchdown to win. His thought process when they do that tonight: "Green Bay's covering!"

Tennessee (+1.5) at Jacksonville

I have one rule when it comes to picking these games: Never ever give points when one of the McCown brothers is the starting quarterback.

Buffalo (+6.5) at Kansas City

Another year, and another NFL season of low expectations for the Bills! But with those low expectations can come numerous backdoor covers throughout the season, perhaps starting this Sunday.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

It was fun tracking this point spread change as the preseason wore on and people started falling in love with the Lions. It went from Tampa Bay by 3.5, and swung 2.5 points all the way down to the Bucs by 1. (And yes, I too recognize how sad it is that I find this interesting).

Atlanta (-3) at Chicago

I have zero confidence in the Bears/Jay Cutler this year.

Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5)

The first NFL Sunday of 2011 starts with the Eagles at the Rams on Fox. I'll get to watch half of this (and all other 1 p.m. games), before I head over to our student newspaper office from 2:30-8:00 and read stories about our women's soccer team instead of watch the NFL.

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Very few things in the world are scarier than saying, "I'll take the 38-year-old Kerry Collins-led Colts on the road."

Cincinnati (+7) at Cleveland

Actually, I've found something scarier: "I'll take the Andy Dalton-led and Marvin Lewis-coached Bengals at the Dawg Pound."

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-1.5)

Leaning towards Baltimore here and we know this will be a close game, so I'd like to use this space to rank three of the great inventions of our time:

1.) Playing 15 games a week on Sundays

2.) The remote control

3.) Creating point spreads for those 15 games.

Seattle at San Francisco (-5.5)

Our first look at Tarvaris Jackson in a Seattle uniform!

New York Giants (-3) at Washington

The Giants are missing a lot of players from their defense, but I'm surprised a lot of people are leaning Washington on this game. Rex Grossman is the starting quarterback. You hear me? Rex Grossman!

Carolina (+7) at Arizona

Because Larry Fitzgerald is my No. 1 fantasy wide receiver, I'll be forced to track 16 of Arizona's 17 games in 2011. And I'm not sure if that's a good thing.

Minnesota (+9.5) at San Diego

The Chargers have been among the most talented teams for a couple of years now. Many playoff failures later, and somehow, Norv Turner is still the head coach.

Dallas (+5) at New York Jets

I don't think there's any team I'm more interested this season than Dallas. How will the offensive line gel? How will the team play in a full season under Jason Garrett? Should I have drafted Felix Jones over Jahvid Best to save me the frustration of when Best misses 6 games this year?

Miami at New England (-7)
Oakland at Denver (-3)

Is anyone else in favor of extending the Monday night doubleheader for 16 weeks and not just Week 1?

Enjoy the games! Follow TylerTomea on Twitter