September 25, 2011

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Season: 17-12-3        Last Week: 8-6-2


All lines courtesy of the New York Post


San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5)

By playing Frank Gore at running back, A.J. Green at flex and using the Bengals as my defense, I'm embarrassed to admit how closely I'll be tracking a game between the 49ers and Bengals.

New England (-7.5) at Buffalo

With us not being able to use the "Never pick against Peyton Manning at night," reasoning this season, I'm in favor of adopting "Never bet against Tom Brady," as the official gambling motto for 2011.

Houston (+4) at New Orleans

In order for this pick to work, this means Houston has to play well three straight weeks in a row. It has to happen one of these years, right? Right?

Miami (+2.5) at Cleveland

This game seems to be the perfect space to discuss my Week 2 fantasy matchup. If you haven't read the last two weeks, here's my team (12-team PPR)
QB- Eli Manning
RB- Frank Gore, Jahvid Best
WR- Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall
TE- Jason Witten
FLEX- Mario Manningham

I was well on my way to a 2-0 start, until Tony Gonzalez randomly went for 7-83-2 to put me down 23.90 heading into Monday's matchup between the Rams and Giants.

Towards the end of the first half, Manning threw a perfect pass down the left sideline to Manningham. Easy catch. Easy touchdown. 2-0 record.

But instead of catching the ball, Manningham bobbled it, fell to the ground (made the catch) and in the process concussed himself and knocked himself from the game. Unbelievable.

So in the span of three seconds, I went from winning my week to having my player knock himself out of the game by banging his head against the turf to eventually losing 155-90-155.70. Worst. Loss. Ever.

Or was it?

Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota

Every Sunday from 3:00 p.m. to 3:45 p.m. I'm in a meeting with no Internet access. On Sunday afternoons, I think the only thing worse than this would be being forced to watch the WNBA Game of the Week.

Last week, I left thinking I had clearly got suckered into taking Tampa Bay and the points in Minnesota, only to return to see the Vikings had blown a 10-point lead with less than 10 minutes left. And with that, Detroit is the pick!

Denver (+6.5) at Tennessee

Perfect! An opportunity to continue my Week 2 fantasy story!

So Tuesday and Wednesday I'm irate that I had just lost by 0.2.

At around 1:00 a.m. Thursday morning, I logedg onto my team page to check out any notes on my players, to read the following on Manning's player page:

Manning got 23 yards added to his season total Wednesday when receiver Hakeem Nicks was credited with a 23-yard catch in Monday night's game against the Rams.

After reading that sentence, I think I was the happiest I've ever been in my life. (I, too, recognize how sad that is).

Did I tell the now-losing owner how I've never seen that happen before, and how I felt bad that he had to deal with a stat-corrected loss? Absolutely not! Instead, taunting texts/emails were sent!

Wow. 155.90-155.70 loss to a 156.62-155.70 stat-corrected win. 2-0. Best. win. ever.

New York Giants (+8) at Philadelphia

Me: I need a starting quarterback for this week.
Friend: How about you stick with Eli?
Me (Dr. Evil voice): How about nooooo?

New York Jets at Oakland (+3.5) 

Bill Simmons is using Matthew Stafford If He Stays Healthy as the quarterback's name in all his columns. This would also work for Oakland: The Oakland Raiders If They Don't Commit Dumb Penalties.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago

When one quarterback doesn't know if he'll be able to survive the 2011 season, I tend to take the other team.

Atlanta (+1.5) at Tampa Bay

Amazing that we were one Michael Vick injury and one fourth-quarter collapse away from this being a must-win game between two 0-2 teams.


Jacksonville (+3.5) at Carolina
Arizona at Seattle (+3.5)
Kansas City (+14.5) at San Diego

When it's around 8:00 p.m. Sunday night and I'm contemplating jumping out my third-floor window, it will most likely be because of my three selections in these games

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Don't worry Rams fans, you'll be playing each team in the NFC West twice soon enough.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Indianapolis

My God.

Washington (+6.5) at Dallas

In the decision between Rex Grossman going up against a blitzing, competent defense and a starting quarterback with a punctured lung, I'll go with Grossman.

By the way, he'll be my starting quarterback as I look to go 3-0. So if you don't hear from me on Tuesday, you'll know why.

Enjoy the games!













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