The Week 14 Picks:
Last Week: 6-10 This Week: 0-1 Season: 88-98-7
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-8.5)
When Haloti Ngata whacked Ben Roethlisberger and broke his nose early in last Sunday's game, I thought one thing: After he was accused of sexual assault twice, this is a huge victory for the women! Meanwhile, how did Cincinnati jump offsides on 4th down against New Orleans last week? (Remembering it's the Bengals, and wondering why I'd expect anything different).
Oakland (+4) at Jacksonville
Oakland is undefeated in the AFC West. With a win this week, and then at Indianapolis next week, Jacksonville will lock up its first AFC South title in franchise history. Yes, I'm just as surprised as you are that those two sentences are true.
Cleveland (pick) at Buffalo
The words, "Jake Delhomme will start Sunday," should be enough to scare me away from picking Cleveland in any situation. But the Browns have won four of six, and all Delhomme needs to do is hand the ball off to Peyton Hillis. He can't screw that up, can he?
Green Bay (-7) at Detroit
Detroit has held the following leads in recent weeks: 20-14 vs Chicago (3rd quarter), 24-17 vs New England (3rd quarter), 12-7 at Dallas (3rd quarter) and 20-10 vs the Jets (3rd quarter). This means two things: 1.) The Lions have serious trouble closing out games. 2.) Betting against Detroit at halftime has to be the most profitable bet in gambling history.
Atlanta (-7.5) at Carolina
Really nice job by Atlanta last week coming back from a 24-14 deficit to defeat the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan usually struggles outdoors, but he's playing against Carolina, who may not qualify as an NFL team. And after last week, when the Panthers blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 31-14 in Seattle, it might be in their best interest to continue losing and secure the No.1 pick.
Tampa Bay (-1.5) at Washington
If someone wanted to know what tanking a game means, I think you can use last week's Redskins-Giants game as Exhibit A. Washington was down 21-0 at halftime, and didn't score its first points until 4:35 remained in the third quarter. Tampa Bay's season probably ended last week, but they've proved all season they can win these games.
Seattle (+5) at San Francisco
A team tied atop its division going on the road against a 4-8 team and being a five-point underdog? Only in the NFC West! This point spread means San Francisco is two points better than Seattle, and 12 games into the season, that's hard to believe.
Denver (-4) at Arizona
It's entirely possible that Josh McDaniels may have done five to 10 years worth of damage to the Denver franchise in less than two full seasons as head coach. But this NFL season has taught us two things: 1.) Anytime a franchise fires its head coach, you have to pick that team the following week. 2.) Anytime you have the chance to pick against someone named John Skelton, you just have to do it.
Kansas City at San Diego (-9.5)
Kansas City's starting quarterback underwent an emergency appendectomy Wednesday morning. The backup has started nine games in his NFL career, and lost all of them. In situations like these, I tend to take the team fighting for its playoff life after being embarrassed at home last week.
Miami (+5.5) at New York
It was Chad Henne (and not Jake Delhomme) who threw an interception late in last week's game that gave Cleveland the win and eliminated any playoff hopes Miami had. But the Dolphins thrive in an underdog role, fight hard for Tony Sparano and usually play New York tough, so I'm confident here. By the way, the playoffs don't start for another four weeks, but a very bad scenario is imminent for either Baltimore or the Jets. On the road. Against Peyton Manning. In Round 1.
New England (-3) at Chicago
I was up 20+ points in a win-and-I'm-in fantasy matchup heading into Monday's Patriots-Jets game this past week. And then I got Tom Brady'd. I don't know if I'll ever recover from that loss. So if there is such a thing as justice, Brady will repay me by covering a three-point spread against Chicago.
St. Louis (+9) at New Orleans
Danny Amendola. Brandon Gibson. Daniel Fells. This is who Sam Bradford has been throwing to all season. You can't say enough about how well the rookie has played, and I think they do enough to keep it close against the defending Super Bowl champions, who have won five straight. And as Thursday night taught us, as long as you're trailing by less than a touchdown (with the spread), it's not over until no time is remaining.
Philadelphia at Dallas (+4)
Dallas has been playing its broken clavicles off since Jason Garrett has taken over, going 3-1 in its past four games. The only loss in that stretch was the three-point defeat at the hands of New Orleans on Thanksgiving, so they should stay close with Philly. (Absolutely terrified of Mike Vick and the Eagles repeatedly burning the Cowboys' secondary deep).
Baltimore (-3) at Houston
Houston is one of the teams that looked promising at the start of the season, but has turned into a mess as the season has gone on and we (should be) approaching the end of the Gary Kubiak Era. And if you're not Rusty Smith, you should have your way with a pass defense that is historically bad. So yeah, I think Joe Flacco will be fine here.
New York (-3) at Minnesota
Mother Nature strikes again, and Father Time will now have another day to see if he can make the start for the Vikings. This is one of the toughest games to call, and it will tell us a lot about the Giants. If you're a playoff team, and you have the Eagles and Packers left on the schedule, you go into Minnesota and win this game. Simple as that.
Enjoy the games!
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