Before I delve into my Week 6 picks, some storylines from Week 5 in the NFL.
Houston Falling into Familiar Rhythm
After opening the season with two impressive wins, (vs Indianapolis and at Washington) the Texans looked on their way second ever winning season and first playoff appearance. But in their never-ending quest to finish as close to 8-8 as possible, Houston has dropped two of their last three, and now could be sitting at .500 after today's game with Kansas City.
Saints' Struggles Continue
Five weeks into the season, and the defending Super Bowl Champs still have not clicked on all cylinders. They have yet to win a game by more than five points, and the low point came last week at Arizona. New Orleans raced out to a 10-0 lead against a rookie quarterback in Arizona, only to lose the game 30-20; leading to furious Facebook messages from a good friend of mine questioning how the eff the Saints could lose that game. Does this happen in 2009? No chance.
Tampa Bay Wins... Again!
The Buccaneers were 2-1 after having defeated Cleveland and Carolina before getting blown out by Pittsburgh, leading some to believe how good they really are. Their ultimate test will be this week, but credit has to be given to them for their comeback win on the road vs Cincinnati. I haven't seen Josh Freeman play yet (just highlights) but he seems like he is developing into a solid quarterback in his second year. As for the Bengals, it's never a good sign when your $100 million quarterback is secretly nowhere near as good as everyone makes him out to be.
Without further ado, the Week 6 picks!
Overall: 36-36-4 Last week: 5-9
San Diego (-8.5) at St. Louis
St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford had developed a great connection with former Oklahoma Sooner Mark Clayton, which makes it even harder that the latter is now out for the season. The starters now? Danny Amendola and Mardy Gilyard. A far cry from Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. Anyway, I think this is the week San Diego starts to put it together and... wait for it... the Ryan Mathews Breakout Fantasy Game!
Kansas City (+4.5) at Houston
Kansas City literally threw everything it had at the Colts, but eventually came up short, losing 19-9. But with the Colts run defense as poor as it is, how does Jamaal Charles only get 16 carries? Anyway, I think the Chiefs do enough to cover this spread against a pass defense that can make Matt Cassel look good.
Baltimore (+3) at New England
Bill Belichick is coming off a bye, which means he had two weeks to prepare for Baltimore, which makes me very, very nervous. Throw in the fact that Baltimore embarrassed New England in last year's playoffs, and an eff you game may be on the horizon. But I think Baltimore is strong enough on both sides of the ball to play it tight and maybe even pull out a win.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5.5)
A barometer game for both teams. Just how good is this Tampa Bay squad, and are they legitimate enough to knock off the defending Super Bowl Champions in a big spot? Are the Saints really that much different from the team that won the title a year ago? This is one of the more interesting games of the day and I think the Bucs keep it close.
Atlanta (+1.5) at Philadelphia
This is a game that really good teams win. The perception is that Atlanta struggles mightily outside the Georgia Dome, and now the Falcons have a chance to prove that theory wrong when they travel to the Linc to take on Philadelphia. I'm not to the point where I can take Kevin Kolb in essentially a pick em' game and feel confident about it.
Detroit at New York (-10)
Even when Detroit wins, they lose. After blowing out the Rams 44-6 last week, Calvin Johnson left the game with a shoulder injury. Reports are that he will play today, but imagine his stats if he was healthy for a whole season? Anyway, Detroit is known for its propensity for the backdoor cover, when they get down by 20, and then score a touchdown with one minute left to lose by 13 but cover the 13.5 spread. Happens all the time. I don't think that's the case here, as I expect New York to be in control from start to finish.
Seattle at Chicago (-6)
17-51. That is the combined score Seattle has lost by on the road this season. If only they played every game at home, I know of at least one person who would be happy. And as much as I fear 2009 Jay Cutler making an appearance at Soldier Field today, I have to go with Chicago at home.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)
What was going through Eric Mangini's head when he said to himself, "Hmmm I think this would be the perfect time to start my inexperienced rookie quarterback!" I had to give a thumbs up to McCoy on the zone this week because that might be the last mention of him on the show after today- ever.
Miami (+3.5) at Green Bay
Miami is coming off a bye and two tough losses to AFC East opponents at home. Their offense is also tough to prepare for, which is why I like them a lot on the road. Also, Green Bay is dealing with a huge injury (Clay Matthews) and Aaron Rodgers is somehow playing just a week after suffering a concussion.
New York at Denver (+3.5)
New York has really impressed me this season, and they've met the challenge in each game thus far. After a bruising Monday Night win against a desperate Minnesota team, if the Jets avoid a letdown here at Denver, I may have to start picking them every week.
Oakland (+7) at San Francisco
When is the last time an 0-5 team has been favored by 7 points? And also, after the San Francisco fans chanted for David Carr (shakes head), what if Alex Smith gets pulled? When is the last time David Carr has covered the spread as a favorite?
Dallas at Minnesota (-1.5)
The Brett Favre controversy. Randy Moss returning to Minnesota. Wade Phillips possibly being fired at halftime. In a game where both teams need to win to be relevant, I think Minnesota takes this one at home.
Indianapolis (-3) at Washington
Never bet against Peyton Manning at night. Never bet against Peyton Manning at night. Never bet against Peyton Manning at night.
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)
Jacksonville is at home? Check. Jacksonville is playing an AFC South opponent? Check. Jacksonville is an underdog? Check. The requirements fill out nicely for taking the Jaguars as home underdogs in an important divisional Monday Night game.
As always, enjoy the games!
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