Week 5 already! Before I delve into my Week 5 picks, some storylines from Week 4 in the NFL.
McNabb Foils Philly
On this past week's episode of the Zone, I was asked how improbable it was that a Michael Vick-led Philadelphia team was playing Donovan McNabb and the Redskins. My response? Something along the lines of, "I can't emphasize strongly enough how improbable that is!" What a terrible answer, and I deserved the shots that came after. Nevertheless, props to McNabb (with a little help from Kevin Kolb) for going into the Linc and getting a win for the Redskins, which improves them to 2-2 and 2-0 in the division. We'll see how Philly responds to Vick's injury, and it might be important to tell Kolb that he actually CAN throw to wide receivers, rather than just check down to running backs.
The Return of 2009 Jay Cutler
You knew it was coming. I knew it was coming. Sooner or later, Jay Cutler would revert back to his 2009 form. The bad body language, hanging his head after every play, not getting rid of the ball quick enough, looking like he didn't care whether his team won or lost. And that was before the concussion. As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, you don't want to pick the Bears when he has one of those games, and I did just that. I was sucked in, and I was rewarded with having to watch Todd Collins try and cover the spread.
Moss Minnesota Bound
Something had to be wrong when Randy Moss was only targeted one time in Monday Night's game against Miami (and on a fake spike of all plays). And just two days after that contest, Moss was shipped back to the Vikings for a 3rd round draft pick. Four things from this trade: 1.) This has to be the biggest in-season NFL trade in quite some time. 2.) The situation in New England had to be bad, and I mean bad, for Belichick to part ways with Moss. 3.) Has a team ever gone all-in like the 2010 Vikings? After this season, no Favre, no Moss, no one knows about Sidney Rice. The time is now for Minnesota. 4.) Randy Moss will be motivated and mad on Monday Night against the Jets, which means he will actually try. That's bad news for this guy. I 'm against Moss in fantasy this week, and I can see Favre throwing 4-5 bombs to Moss, whether he is triple-covered or not. I'm officially worried.
Without further ado, the Week 5 picks!
Overall: 31-27-4 Last Week: 9-5
Denver (+8) at Baltimore
The words "Kyle Orton" and "4,000-yard passer" do not belong together in any circumstances. But when you have a backfield that is led by Laurence Maroney, you better be throwing the ball 40-50 times a game. I don't love this pick, but I think a bit of a letdown is in store for the Ravens after their bruising victory at Pittsburgh last week.
Jacksonville (+2.5) at Buffalo
This is one of the few games on the schedule that Buffalo can win. Jacksonville always plays well against Indianapolis, and then they remember they're the Jaguars for the other 15 weeks of the season. If it was any other team, I'd go against the Jags. But can Chan Gailey really be giving points to anyone after how his team has played so far? And is Jacksonville really going to be winless on the road?
Kansas City at Indianapolis (-7.5)
Facing a Scott Pioli-constructed team and with Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel on the sidelines, Peyton Manning must be having flashbacks to the mid-2000s when he was incapable of beating these guys. But the Colts aren't going to go 2-3 and the Chiefs aren't going to go 4-0, and I see a big response by Indy after last week's loss.
St. Louis (+3) at Detroit
I watched the St. Louis-Washington game a couple of weeks back, and the Rams look like they made a solid choice with Sam Bradford. Who does he get to play next? None other than the quarterback-friendly Detroit Lions, as the Rams look to go above .500 for the first time since their move from Los Angeles.
Atlanta (-3) at Cleveland
I feel that every game so far involving Cleveland in this column has turned into a short discussion about Jake Delhomme. Nevertheless, for the third consecutive week, Eric Mangini was disappointed he wouldn't have Delhomme for this Sunday's game against Atlanta. In 11 games last year, he threw 8 TDs and 18 INTs. And yet the Browns plan to start him every week. Let that sink in for a little bit.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-7)
Two teams we know nothing about. The Bucs beat two horrible teams to open the season before getting crushed by Pittsburgh at home 38-6 in Week 3. Cincy is 2-2 and trying to regain their form after a playoff appearance last season. I keep telling myself the Bengals offense should be better with Palmer, Benson, Ochocinco, Owens, Shipley and Gresham. Shouldn't it?
Chicago (+3) at Carolina
The game Chicago played on Monday night might have set football back a good 20 years. You had Jay Cutler throwing the ball out of bounds left handed on one play, Lovie Smith not knowing what was going on, and Todd Collins playing at quarterback. But I like the Bears here, as I think their defense will play great in the same way the Pittsburgh D played in Week 1 vs Atlanta. At least that's what I keep telling myself.
Green Bay (-3) at Washington
The classic "overreaction spread of the week!" Washington went into Philadelphia, jumped out to a big lead, and then held on to defeat the Vick-less Eagles. Green Bay was up 14 on Detroit in the second half before the Lions, who have become known for late, meaningless touchdowns, scored a few times to make the score close. Is Green Bay really only three points better than Washington?
New York at Houston (-3)
Houston impressed me last week with their win on the road against Oakland. If you're a playoff team, those are they types of games you need to win. The Giants are 2-2, and I don't know what to make of them after four games. This is one of the tougher games on the slate.
New Orleans (-7) at Arizona
After Derek Anderson flopped, the Arizona Cardinals will turn to Max Hall at quarterback. Now three things could happen. 1.) Hall plays like a rookie against the defending Super Bowl Champs. 2.) Hall plays OK but the Saints actually play like they're the defending Super Bowl Champs. 3.) Hall plays out of his mind, and I'm screwed. One more thing: What does this say about Matt Leinart? (Searching for answer.)
Tennessee (+7) at Dallas
Tennessee looks great one week, and then looks absolutely terrible the next. Fortunately, the Titans looked awful in last week's 26-20 loss to Denver at home. Which means, by law, Tennessee must play a good game this week at Dallas. Anyway, Vince is going back to Texas, so you know he'll be ready, and this spread is a bit too high.
San Diego (-7) at Oakland
We know San Diego will beat Oakland, but the questions is, by how much? In the last 13 meetings the Chargers have beaten the Raidahhs, and I think San Diego covers here. And hey Norv Turner, how about giving Ryan Mathews the effin ball!?!?
Philadelphia at San Francisco (-3)
After last week, San Francisco has now added "Intercept a pass, don't fall down, try to take it to the endzone, fumble the ball, and watch opposing team kick a game-winning field goal" to its list of ways to lose this season. With that out of the way, I like them on Sunday Night. I wish the spread was under three though, and I also wish Alex Smith wasn't at quarterback.
Minnesota (+4.5) at New York
First Greg Oden, and now Brett Favre. My God. Anyway, I don't see the Jets being able to beat Minnesota by more than four in a game the Vikings need to stay afloat in the playoff race.
As always, enjoy the games!
tylertomea@gmail.com
