The Week 10 Picks!
Last Week: 6-6-1 This Week: 1-0 Season: 58-66-7
Baltimore at Atlanta (-1)
I will be posting the Thursday night pick each week on Facebook. (Still wondering why it took me so long to get one.) Anyway, with Thursday's victory, we may have to start putting "Never go against Matt Ryan at home" right next to the long-established rule of "Never go against Peyton Manning at night." Matty Ice is now 18-1 at the Georgia Dome, and has won his last 14 starts in Atlanta.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-7)
I'm going against Terrell Owens this week in a must-win fantasy game, and I'm officially terrified. And by the way, I would have never thought I'd type that sentence 10 weeks ago. Although the Bengals are the Picassos of garbage time, I think Indy builds a big enough lead early to maintain the cover.
Houston (+1) at Jacksonville
One of these teams is going to move to 5-4 after this game and, because they have a winning record after Week 10, we'll be forced to throw them into the playoff conversation. But does anyone outside of Houston and Jacksonville think they have a chance? Anyone?
Tennessee (-1) at Miami
It looks like Kerry Collins will get the call on Sunday, reuniting him with Randy Moss from their days on the 2005 Oakland Raiders. While I'd be a bit more confident with VY at the helm, Jeff Fisher is stellar coming off a bye and Miami has turned to Chad Pennington at quarterback.
Minnesota (-1.5) at Chicago
This is what I like to call a "this can't happen game." Chicago can't move to 6-3 and tie Green Bay atop the NFC North, and Minnesota can't drop to 3-6 and eliminate themselves this early. But even though I picked the Vikings, I wouldn't mind seeing Chicago win if just for another week of Minnesota interviews following a loss.
Detroit (+1.5) at Buffalo
If ever there were a time for Buffalo to get its first win it would be here, at home, against Detroit. On the other side, Lions fans have to be wondering "what could have been?" after another injury to Matthew Stafford, this time with the team up 10 against the Jets. But Detroit has been sneakily competitive, and until Buffalo wins, it's hard to lay the points with them.
New York at Cleveland (+3.5)
We could get a preview of how LeBron will be treated in his return to Cleveland when Braylon Edwards makes the trip back this Sunday. OK maybe not, but I still think this is an interesting subplot. Cleveland keeps it close here as we continue to wonder how the Brady Quinn-Peyton Hillis deal ever happened.
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-7)
After nine weeks, I think I have to start buying the fact that Tampa Bay is a solid football team. Each time the Falcons scored last Sunday, the Bucs responded, and even had a chance late in the game to pull out a win on the road. Very impressive. As for Carolina, has there ever been a less inspiring offense than the 2010 Panthers? They are last in the NFL with 11 PPG, making "Carolina's opponent" an instant fantasy defense pickup.
Seattle at Arizona (-3)
I like Arizona about as much as anyone can like them in this week's game with Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck is returning for the Seahawks, and that is a good thing considering the way Charlie Whitehurst looked at home last week. But Seattle's blowout loss at Qwest Field- albeit to a very good New York team- has to be troubling.
St. Louis (+5.5) at San Francisco
As if one NFC West game during the same week wasn't enough, here's another! As crazy as it sounds, a win here coupled with a Seattle loss means San Francisco would be one game back in the division. At 3-6. I think the 49ers will win, but it's hard to pass up the chance to get 5.5 points against Troy Smith.
Kansas City (-1) at Denver
Kansas City really missed a golden opportunity to improve to 6-2 in last week's game at Oakland. A Matt Cassel interception late in the first half prevented the Chiefs from extending a 10-0 lead, and then Kansas City allowed Jason Campbell to engineer a game-tying drive in the final two minutes. A tricky game here at Denver, but I think the Chiefs recover.
Dallas at New York (-13.5)
One broken clavicle, a Wade Phillips firing and a Jerry Jones press conference later and here we are. Dallas, as underdogs by nearly two touchdowns against the rival New York Giants. And after seeing the Cowboys play on Sunday at Lambeau Field, this spread might be too low.
New England (+4.5) at Pittsburgh
Somebody somewhere had to lose their fantasy game last week by a point due to Wes Welker's PAT. How can you possibly bounce back from a loss like that?!?! Anyway, I think getting 4.5 points with New England is too much, and I think Belichick and Brady respond nicely after last week's loss.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Sometime after 3 p.m. on Halloween, things were looking great for Washington. They had the ball, were leading by five against Detroit, and needed a couple of first downs to head into the bye week at 5-3. Two weeks and one Rex Grossman sighting later, and the Redskins are in a tough spot this Monday. Yeah, I think I'll take the Eagles.
As always, enjoy the games!
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