Before I delve into my Week 4 picks, some storylines from Week 3 in the NFL.
J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!
A 10-9 loss at home on Monday night is not the way you want to start the season. Mark Sanchez threw for 74 yards (as the New York media wanted him traded/released), while the team gave up 125 penalty yards in a game that can only be described as ugly. As is custom during every NFL season, everyone was prematurely writing off a team after their Week 1 performance. But you really can't say enough about the Jets play these past two weeks. They earned two wins against New England and Miami, with Sanchez throwing for 6 TDs. There's still a long way to go, but beating two quality division teams in consecutive weeks is impressive.
How are they 3-0 again?
Teams led by Matt Cassel, Dennis Dixon/Charlie Batch and Jay Cutler are the only 3-0 teams entering Week 4 (waiting for lightning to strike and UFOs to appear.) These teams went a combined 20-28 last season, and each has won three straight in a different way. Pittsburgh with its suffocating defense, Chicago by not having its quarterback turn the ball over once a quarter, and Kansas City... Wait a minute, how are the Chiefs 3-0 again?
A C.J. Spiller Sighting (Sort of).
After two weeks of being underutilized, Spiller provided the first electrifying play of his young career with a 95 yard kickoff return against New England. So any logical person would think his carries have increased significantly, right? Right? We've been here before, and I also have to remind you: This is the Buffalo Bills! After getting one carry in Week 2 against Green Bay, Spiller got four against New England (scratches head). It's always smart to keep your most exciting player on the sidelines. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 Buffalo Bills!
Without further ado, the Week 4 picks!
Overall: 22-22-4 Last Week: 6-10
Baltimore (+2.5) at Pittsburgh
Charlie Batch is a nice story, but does anyone think he can really beat Baltimore? The only way the Ravens lose this game is with turnovers and penalties, two things that very well could happen at Heinz Field. Another storyline I'm interested in: What is going through Big Ben's head if his team goes 4-0- without him?
Cincinnati at Cleveland (+3)
I don't even have to ask, but I will. How excited are you for Part 1 of the Battle of Ohio!?!? For a second straight week, Cleveland was hoping to have Jake Delhomme for this game, but he's out. When you've gotten to the point where you're hoping for Delhomme to be healthy, you're in big trouble. Nevertheless, Cleveland usually plays tight with the Bengals.
Detroit at Green Bay (-14.5)
Good God. After blowing a Monday night game in which they committed 18 penalties, Green Bay comes home to feast on the Shaun Hill-led Lions. I don't think the spread in this game can be high enough, and I think we see a Packers performance similar to their Week 3 thrashing of Buffalo.
Carolina (+13) at New Orleans
Carolina has a great one-two punch at running back in Williams and Stewart. So what do they decide to do in Jimmy Clausen's first start at quarterback? Throw the ball 15 more times than they run it- of course! Look for John Fox to shorten the game here by establishing the run, making it tough for the Saints to cover this spread (or at least that's what I keep telling myself.)
Denver at Tennessee (-6.5)
Definitely one of the tougher games here. I just think Denver invested so much in that Indianapolis game last week that they will show up flat here. But in reality, I have no idea what's going to happen in this game. I really don't.
San Francisco (+7) at Atlanta
After installing an offense all throughout training camp, firing the offensive coordinator in Week 3 can't be a good thing. And while everyone was touting San Fran as the clear NFC West favorite (myself included) we should have looked at their early season schedule. On the road in three very tough places (Seattle, Kansas City, Atlanta) and home against the Super Bowl champs. This is the 49ers' last stand, and while I don't think they'll win, I think it will be close.
Seattle (-2) at St. Louis
It would probably be wiser to flip a coin when trying to handicap games between two NFC West teams- because no one knows what the hell is going to happen in most cases. Meanwhile, my friend who has Seattle in the Super Bowl also picked the Cincinnati Reds to make the playoffs during last season's baseball preview. Perhaps he is on to something...
New York at Buffalo (+6)
What's the over/under for how many times we are told Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is from Harvard. 3? 4? I've known this for the past five years, and yet jokes are made about this everytime he takes an NFL snap. (Avoiding an explanation on why I picked the Bills.)
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+7)
Every year, Jacksonville treats the home Indianapolis game as its Super Bowl. Last year, the spread in this game was Indy by 3.5, and this year it has ballooned to 7 due to the Jags recent suckiness. For some unexplainable reason, Jacksonville knows how to play the Colts, and I like the points here.
Houston (-3.5) at Oakland
It's never a good sign when your starting quarterback in a must-win Week 4 fantasy matchup is Bruce Gradkowski (shakes head). Fortunately, he's going up against the Houston secondary, but Bruce Gradkowski? Really? Anyway, I think Houston wins and narrowly covers in a tough spot on the road.
Arizona at San Diego (-9.5)
San Diego returns home after getting Leon Washington'd at Seattle in Week 3. The good thing is they get Arizona, who has to be the weakest 2-1 team in years. They narrowly beat Oakland and St. Louis at home between getting blown out by Atlanta on the road. And it goes without saying, but it's tough to have confidence in a Derek Anderson/Max Hall-led team.
Washington (+5) at Philadelphia
Michael Vick played in garbage time against Green Bay, then against the Lions, and then against the Jaguars. That's not the toughest slate right there. But the Eagles' schedule does get tougher starting with this game, and I'm anxious to see how long Vick can channel his inner Madden 2004. Oh yeah, and McNabb is coming back to Philly.
Chicago (+3.5) at New York
A 3-0 team getting 3.5 points against a 1-2 team. Hmmmm. This is one of the tougher games to call, and I actually think New York will pull it out at home. But I was burned by these sucker bets last week, and I'm going to do the smart thing and take the points this week.
New England (-1.5) at Miami
Why yes, I'd love to take Tom Brady in what basically amounts to a pick on Monday night football. If the Patriots really are improved from last season, this is the game where it shows. Meanwhile, can Miami lose two straight games to division rivals at home? Of course!
As always, enjoy the games.
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