The Week 15 Picks:
Last Week: 8-8 This Week: 1-0 Season: 97-104-7
Kansas City at St. Louis (-3)
In these situations, I usually like to take the team whose quarterback hasn't had his appendix removed within the last two weeks. And anyway, one team from the NFC West has to be on its way to 8-8 and a division title, right? Right?
Houston (+1) at Tennessee
Under normal circumstances, this would be a game where a fully healthy Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson torch Houston's porous defense at home. But then you have this, and realize this is a Titans team in disarray that may or may not have quit on its coach. Interesting subplot/Only reason I'm interested in this game: Johnson-Finnegan II.
Jacksonville (+4.5) at Indianapolis
There is no way Indianapolis has its season ended, at home, in Week 15. Peyton Manning will be able to feast all day on Jacksonville's 28th-ranked pass defense. Can anyone really see David Garrard and Jack Del Rio clinching a playoff spot in a big-time road game? This spread should definitely be Indy by 10, at least. (Rule of thumb: When not totally confident with a pick, always go with the reverse jinx!).
Arizona (+2.5) at Carolina
Jimmy Clausen's play over the next three weeks could go a long way in determining his future. If he leads Carolina to a couple of wins, the Panthers will lose the No.1 pick and the chance to draft Andrew Luck, meaning Clausen will have another season at the helm to turn things around. But the Panthers have come this far- seven straight losses- that a win here could actually enrage the fanbase.
Cleveland (pick) at Cincinnati
Had this game happened a week earlier, we would have had a showdown between Jake Delhomme and Carson Palmer. The over/under on interceptions returned for touchdowns in that contest would be 3.5, and I'd seriously consider the over. McCoy gives the Browns the edge here in a game I'm not even sure the state of Ohio cares about.
Buffalo (+5) at Miami
Miami looked awful last week and Chad Henne may be sneakily approaching "one of the five worst quarterbacks in the league" territory, but the Dolphins schedule shapes up very nicely for a playoff run. They have Buffalo and Detroit at home, followed by a New England team who will be resting its starters in Week 17. Miami should win here, but it's tough to be giving more than three with a team that is so incapable of scoring.
Washington at Dallas (-7)
A post by Chris Chase on the Shutdown Corner blog on Friday had the following title: "McNabb benched for Grossman, Redskins players furious." Yep, I think I'll take Dallas in this one. As the famous line in Jerry Maguire states, "You had me at hello McNabb benched for Grossman." Or something like that.
Philadelphia (+3) at New York
Two lasting images I have in my head from Eagles-Giants the last two seasons: 1.) Eli refusing to slide, awkwardly falling to the ground and fumbling- twice! 2.) DeSean Jackson repeatedly getting behind the Giants secondary in a game last year on Sunday Night. The Eagles have won five straight in the series, so it's tough not to take them when their getting a field goal here.
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-4)
This spread opened up at six earlier in the week, and now has dropped to four as of Sunday morning. Are we forgetting that the Lions have lost 26 consecutive games on the road? Do we know that Detroit hasn't won two in a row since 2007? Do we remember that Raheem Morris once called his team the best in the NFC? Why am I asking so many questions?!?! All season long, Tampa Bay has beaten every average (and below-average) team on its schedule, and here's another chance for a win.
New York (+5) at Pittsburgh
No Troy Polamalu (and to a much, much lesser extent) no Heath Miller, means this is a great chance for the Jets to spring an upset in Pittsburgh against a Steelers offense that has been struggling. The road will be a bit tougher though with the suspension of top tackler Sal Alosi, who also doubled as the team's strength and conditioning coach.
Atlanta (-6) at Seattle
The Seahawks season progression: Week 6: After a road win at Chicago, maybe this team has finally turned the corner as they enter the bye week at 4-2. Week 10: At 5-4 and atop the NFC West, this is the team that wins games at home and can beat horrible teams on the road. Week 15: Seattle has lost its last five games by 30, 34, 15, 18 and 19; they're awful. I'd like to present to you your 2010 NFC West co-leaders!
Denver at Oakland (-7)
I can now officially check "Taking Oakland when their favored by a touchdown or more" off my list of "Things I never thought I'd do in the next 10 years." But going against a team that just lost by 30 to Arizona and is starting a quarterback whose best qualities are his intangibles and winning attitude, I think now is the time to roll with the Raiders.
New Orleans (+2) at Baltimore
I'm putting this game with the other 4 o'clock starts, because it doesn't have the feel of a 1 p.m. kickoff. Anyway, after their amazing cover last week, it's tough to go against Baltimore this Sunday for sentimental reasons. But if there has ever been an under-the-radar red hot 10-3 team, it's the 2010 New Orleans Saints.
Green Bay at New England (-14)
The "Matt Flynn Effect" has moved this line from Patriots by six (Rodgers playing) to Patriots by two touchdowns. And after seeing Flynn attempt to play quarterback at Detroit, I think the spread could have been bumped another 10 points and I'd still consider New England.
Chicago (-6) at Minnesota
Anytime you have a chance to pick against a team who no-showed its last game and is starting a quarterback who is also listed as a wide receiver in fantasy football, you don't ask questions and just go ahead and do it.
Enjoy the games!
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